Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

[Ed Lizard]

Death ridge now in place.   

 

 

I think the worst will be over the Four Corners, and we'll have some opportunities for weak systems coming back to the West underneath.

 

And if this can lock it, it could mean an exciting Florida tropical season, where the best chaser YouTubes are from.

 

[DoctorMu]

I think the worst will be over the Four Corners, and we'll have some opportunities for weak systems coming back to the West underneath.

 

And if this can lock it, it could mean an exciting Florida tropical season, where the best chaser YouTubes are from.

 

 

 

I agree because of the wetness in May the ridge may have a looser grip this year and also the potential from the tropics is greater.  Next weekend holds a slim chance..as moisture from the east may penetrate on the underbelly of the ULH.  Until then, upper 90s in CLL and continued dry.

 

At least we don't have a scenario like 2011!

[DoctorMu]

90° by noon.  Death Ridge pretty death-like today around here.  Some popcorn variety storms near Beaumont...

 

 

GFS fun on the far horizon?

 

[Ed Lizard]

I'll shake the hand of any front that can get down here at the end of June.  But who knows.  And if a front does stall offshore as the MJO goes favorable, well, that could be exciting.  I'm not tight core snobby, if an Edouard spins up and rains on my house, that'd be awesome.

 

Canadian gets the front close, but I think we keep a West wind, from what I can tell, next weekend, which would be beastly hot, probably, and the kind of thing that can set high temp records in Galveston with wind moving offshore.

 

 

Showers now starting down toward VCT.  Maybe my yard can get an incredible 3 shower days in one week.  Probably not, but I'm a natural optimist.  And the showers toward BPT look to have launched an outflow boundary.  PW not impressive for late June per SPC RAP mesoanalysis, yet showers develop..

[DoctorMu]

Iso's petering out near LaGrange.  

 

That cold front to HOU and coast would be a miracle indeed.  I've never seen one make it past Hearne from around now through about August 9 (1989, 1992(?))

[Ed Lizard]

0Z GFS shows several 100F/38C days next 240 hours in HOU area, with HOU.SAT and AUS getting under a tenth of rain, and further out into the lobotomy, about half an inch for Houston in 16 days and under a quarter for much of the I-35 corridor, as the Great Sameness is now really settling in.

 

12Z day 8  cold front is gone.

 

0Z 8 day hotlink.  Sometime by mid September it will show a cold front.

 

[Srain]

The guidance is indicating several features will be worth watching as we head toward the end of June. Currently there is a surge of tropical moisture is spreading into the SE Gulf and heading W beneath the Bermuda Ridge. That area of higher pw’s (around 2 inches) will approach the Central and Western Gulf as we head toward the end of the work week. The Upper Ridge does appear to lessen its grip over Texas as it shifts NW toward Utah and a rather unusually strong trough drops into the SE US this weekend. The models are ‘sniffing’ some convective development dropping S along the eastern flank of that western upper ridge during the coming weekend. As the area of increased deep tropical moisture spreads W in the Gulf, there is a fairly good chance we will see our rain chances increase as well. Mid week does look hot, but nothing like we haven’t seen already. Some of the global and ensemble guidance is beginning to suggest the tropics may become active across the NW Caribbean/Western Gulf in the early July time frame.

 

[DoctorMu]

Go Tropics!  Am out of town (fortunately)...and may not come back until the cap starts to erod!

 

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
635 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR AGAIN TONIGHT FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH SHRA DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. VFR TOMORROW WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS. SOME TAF SITES MIGHT HAVE A SHRA OR TWO EARLY BEFORE THINGS
QUIET DOWN ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A TSTM ONGOING ACROSS ERN PARTS OF THE
REGION TODAY. EXPECT A SIMILAR SETUP ON TUE WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
LESS COVERAGE AS MOISTURE LEVELS START A DOWNWARD TREND. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20% POPS FOR ANOTHER DAY...BUT BY WED
SUSPECT THEY WON`T EVEN BE WORTH MENTIONING.

UPPER RIDGE TAKES SHAPE OUT WEST AND EXPANDS INTO THE AREA DURING
THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEK. GFS STARTING LOOK A BIT MORE LIKE THE
ECMWF OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH DEVELOPING MORE OF A SWLY FLOW IN
THE LLVLS THU-SUN. H85 TEMPS FCST TO CLIMB WELL >20C AND ALL THE
WAY UP TO NEARLY 26C NEAR CLL OVER THE WEEKEND. NUDGED DAYTIME TEMPS
UP AREAWIDE AND ABOVE 100 FOR MANY LOCATIONS AND ALSO GAVE MORE
FCST WEIGHT TO ECMWF MOS THAN BEFORE (ECMWF MOS IS SHOWING HIGHS
AROUND 105 @ CLL THIS WEEKEND).     

WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY IMPULSES RIDING THE NRLY FLOW
ALOFT BUT OTHER THAN THAT CAPPING LOOKS TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT FOR
PRECIP THRU AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY. PATTERN DOES FAVOR FOR A
FRONT TO SLIDE INTO OR CLOSE TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THAT MAY OR MAY NOT BECOME A FOCUS/TRIGGER IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD CAP ERODE ENOUGH.

[Ed Lizard]

Despite apparently favorable upward motion phases, only the oft mocked Canadian even comes close to suggesting anything of a TC nature in the next 10 days, at least,

 

The Great Sameness is locked in this week, (but may relax next week) and towards the weekend hoping the ridge occasionally orients for disturbances from the Northwest around the ridge.  Until then, Euro text from AccuWx puts Houston over 100F Saturday and Sunday.  Better than Dallas...

 

It isn't the Springtime cap of hot, dry air coming off the high elevations of Mexico, rather, it is descending, warming air under the ridge.  Different kind of capping.

 

I can't remember when we had our last NW flow aloft event...

 

 

 

Beyond Sunday the core of the Heat Ridge of Death will be to our West, so even without defined disturbances riding down, maybe the typical 20% storm Summer action will come back in a week.  Speaking of the tropics and the lack of any action on models, Euro ensembles day 10, something that might develop could potential target the Northern and Eastern Gulf.  But looks like nothing will develop.

 

 

[Srain]

Meh…I not too worried about a brief dry spell for late week. This appears very transient as the upper ridge retreat W from near Salt Lake City and may even shift a bit N into Canada. With a fairly deep 5H low spinning over the Ohio Valley and a stalled boundary across the Western Gulf Coast we tend to see an area of low pressure spin up increasing onshore flow. The guidance is suggesting convection dropping S in the northerly flow along the E flank of the upper ridge from Canada into the Plains as the 5H low meanders. Deep tropical moisture will likely head NW from the Caribbean and pool across the Western Gulf on E. Eventually that increased tropical moisture will win out as the boundary further E retreats N. I’d still keep an eye on the Bay of Campeche just beyond the July 4^th timeframe.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

 

Little day to day variation in the weather through Saturday.

 

Upper level ridge over the four corners region will amplify and expand eastward across much of TX through Saturday bringing likely the hottest temperatures of 2013 to many areas of the state. The building ridge will effectively end rain chances which are already on the low side and mainly confined today to the coastal counties and those counties east of I-45 where moisture is greatest. Gusty S winds today will help mitigate a warming low levels under the increasing subsidence from the building ridge with most locations reaching the mid to upper 90’s. Recent dry streak (last week) and warm surface temperatures are helping to dry out the ground and brown vegetation and suspect this will begin to have an impact on afternoon high temperatures which have thus far been tempered by the decent ground moisture. As the ridge builds overhead Friday and Saturday expect areas west of I-45 to reach 100 or better and the City of Houston may be very close to 100 depending on what time the seabreeze front moves through. Areas that have not seen rainfall over the past 2 weeks could see 100’s as early as Thursday.

 

Good news is that nearly all the forecast models break down this ridging and retro-grade (move westward) the ridge axis on Sunday as an impressive deep trough develops over the Great Lakes into the east coast. SE TX and much of eastern TX will lie along the eastern flank of the western US upper level high and this will help to guide disturbances SSW to SW into the state from the NE starting late Sunday. Forecast soundings for Sunday afternoon show a moist air mass with good low level instability. Expect thunderstorm complexes to our NE to approach the region during the afternoon hours which could either move through the area or send strong outflow boundaries into the area. Such patterns tend to produce a severe weather risk. NNE to NE flow aloft will help to usher in a weak cold front to areas NE of the region on Monday and this will continue to be a favorable breeding ground for thunderstorm formation which will then track SSW to SW into our region during the afternoon and evening hours on Monday and possibly Tuesday.

 

Upper ridging then looks to build ENE from the western US into the center of the nation next week with the troughing pushing eastward. This pattern begins to open the Gulf of Mexico to deep SE flow into the state of Texas toward/around the 4^th of July holiday. While we are talking very long ranges at this point (end of next week) there appears to be at least some potential for some tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico toward the first week of July. The GFS has been fairly supportive of this idea for several runs now and a couple of the other global models appear to be trending slightly in that direction also. While I rarely believe such solutions at such long time periods, the models did do very well with the formation potential for both Andrea and Barry up to two weeks out so they could be on to something. Additionally, the favorable phase of the MJO looks to be arriving into the Gulf of Mexico from the eastern Pacific about the first week of July which is correlated to an increased potential for tropical cyclone formation.    

[Ed Lizard]

That is what I said.  Boring this week, a chance of less boring starting about Sunday, nothing obvious in the tropics but a more favorable pattern developing, and if Euro ensembles are right, US Gulf Coast might not be completely protected if something does develop post July 4th holiday.

 

I will say, pretty colors, but a tenth to a quarter isn't exactly the Indian monsoon.  I want the 5" the model is predicting for the Adirondacks.

 

GFS ensemble means also suggests worst of the Hell Heat Ridge of Death will be centered NW of here, with reasonably happy heights and a chance of afternoon showers.

 

BTW, if that is the general pattern that does establish during meat and potatoes season, while points East of Texas would be at higher risk, people's vacation houses on coastal islands would not be completely safe.  If that is the pattern that tries to lock in.  Still looks like Louisiana to Florida would be the bullseye.

[Ed Lizard]

Euro hinting at a gentle cool front Monday, with even some showers.

[DoctorMu]

Against my better judgement, we are driving west into the Death Ridge from Dante's 9th circle of Hell tomorrow back to Texas.

 

Yep, this is the type of capping where the Fat Lady blows dry air in the mid and upper levels, but when she sits with full weight pressing down and squashing any chance of rain or temps <100F in CLL.  It's ironic when things turn brown while the DP is still 70F+.

 

Here's to trough digging!

[Ed Lizard]

I can understand when ensemble means look smoothed because of the averaging compared to the operational, but the Euro and its ensembles really have some issues right over the middle of North America, where I'm hoping for some lower heights over my house with comfortable warm Summer temps and the 20 or 30% chance of afternoon storms.

 

 

Usually this different is the GFS and GEFS means...

 

[Ed Lizard]

Bed time, but does the new GFS feature the worst cold front ever, Northeast wind, abnormally low dewpoints in the low 50s, and high temps pushing 100F?

 

It would be a dry heat, however.

[Srain]

The reliable global and ensemble guidance are suggesting a very unsettled pattern develop around the 4th of July and extending into the long Holiday Weekend. A rather potent upper low/trough will develop near the Ohio Valley and slowly retrograde WSW as the upper ridge that will bring us our 100F heat sill shift NW into the Pacific NW and Western Canada. There continues to be indications that a trough of low pressure will develop near S Central Texas/Middle Texas Coast along a stalled boundary. Copious deep tropical moisture will stream in from the NW Caribbean with precipitable water values (PW’s) exceeding the 2+ inch mark. This deep rich moisture from the tropics sets the stage for a multi day rainfall event that will benefit locations across most of the Western and Central Gulf extending E. Those with outdoor plans over the 4th of July may want to monitor future weather forecasts as the rain and storm chances may need to be increased during the Holiday period. MIMIC does show a rather impressive tropical wave moving W near 45W. We may need to watch that feature as the timing for arrival in the NW Caribbean coincides with a favorable MJO pulse/Kelvin Wave entering the Western Atlantic Basin during the second week of July. We will see.

 

 

[Ed Lizard]

Bummer that Euro AccuWx PPV text data for IAH next ten days sums up to all of 0,60 inches, and GFS operational the next ten days isn't all that much better, and can be described as nothing but dry for Central Texas.

 

 

And no signs of tropical activity from any reliable guidance in the Atlantic Basin the next 10 days,

 

Not a single 1004 mb or below tropical cyclone shown on 16 day GEFS run, either 0Z or 6Z runs.

 

The good news, the highest heights are well East and West of Texas, so at least a chance of a scattered shower, and temps shouldn't be warmer than normal.

 

Euro and Euro ensembles, looking at 500 mb heights, anything that could develop in Gulf next week could be a Gulf threat, but no sign of anything developing.  By weekend after 4th, ridges reconnect, scariest hear still looks West of here, but threat of anything from Gulf looks reduced,  Not that there should be anything to threaten the Gulf.

 

Euro shows 850 mb temps almost 24º on Sunday, between 16 and 20º for 4th of July, and even with ridge reconnecting across, barely 20ºC the following weekend, or a few days of miserable hot, then not so bad, but not buckets of rain, or any readily apparent tropical threats through the Texas 4th of July 4 day holiday weekend at the beach,

[Srain]

Cool pic of the Lone Star State from the International Space Station fly over.

 

 

http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/imagegallery/image_feature_2540.html

[msp]

FWD saying 108F here in fort worth tomorrow.  ouch. looks like i planned the right weekend to head to galveston.

[DoctorMu]

A scorcher tomorrow here as well.   "just" 100°F peaks yesterday and today

 

NW flow aloft during the weekend is squeezing the rain chances out of the dry/cold front.  The Next chance of tropical flow and scattered rain chances are during the long 4th weekend.

[Ed Lizard]

FWD saying 108F here in fort worth tomorrow.  ouch. looks like i planned the right weekend to head to galveston.

 

 

With a little luck the weak "front" will shift winds offshore in GLS as it approaches, negating the cooling effects of the Gulf and push temps on the island into the upper 90s Saturday.  But don't worry, onshore flow should resume fairly quickly, and it should be rather nice for my four day weekend.  HGX has the 20s thrown in there for the holiday (that might actual be a tad low based on GFS for Friday), I'm not too concerned.  Showers don't ruin a party weekend, and if my wife lets me use her pad to check radar, and its raining at our house, it'd be sweet.  Trough is being squeezed back out as the ridge rebuilds from the East, but 850 mb temps are below 20C, so it shouldn't be terrible.

 

We committed too late to GLS, all the beds are full in the Jamaica Beach Party pad, so a 2 day hit at a motel and leave Saturday night (but avoid traffic). 

[DoctorMu]

10-freakin'6°F and still rising in CLL.  107° in Bastrop, 107° in LaGrange

 

Reminds me of being on the West side of a TC in August or early September (Rita) with less wind.

[Srain]

Update from Jeff:

Intense heat today has resulted in several new records being established across central and SE TX.

Combination of an approaching surface front and strong upper level ridge of high pressure from the SW US into TX resulted in widespread 100’s across the region with many locations reaching well over 100. W then N winds during the day helped pin the seabreeze front on the coast allowing no cooling affect from the Gulf. This is the same high pressure cell responsible for the incredible heat over the SW US including the 120-130 degrees forecast for Death Valley this weekend which is within 4 degrees of the world high temperature record of 134 in Death Valley set in 1913.

 

Records for June 29, 2013:

 

Bush IAH: 107 (broke all time June record of 105) (broke daily record of 103)
Hobby Airport: 105 (broke all time June record of 102) (broke daily record of 100)
College Station: 106 (broke daily record of 105)
Galveston: 94 (tied daily record of 94)
San Antonio: 108 (broke all time June record of 107) (broke daily record of 104)
Austin: 107 (broke daily record of 105)
Del Rio: 108 (broke daily record of 106)
Victoria: 109 (broke daily record of 102)
Corpus Christi: 107 (broke daily record of 99)
Brownsville: 102 (broke daily record of 100 from 1900)

 

Other Area Highs:

Ellington: 104
Tomball: 105
Sugar Land: 106
Angleton: 103
Huntsville: 103
Conroe: 103
Bay City: 105
Brenham: 108
Wharton: 105
Caldwell: 102
Cleveland: 103
Alice: 109
McMullen Military Range: 111

 

Weak front currently moving toward the area will end the record heat with highs on Sunday at least 10 degrees cooler than today.

[Srain]

The overnight global and ensemble guidance are advertising a couple of cool mornings with low temps in the 60’s for Monday and Tuesday N of 1-10. The deep trough to our N and E should begin to retrograde or move W as the Upper Heat Ridge shifts NW into the Pacific NW and the Canadian Providences of British Columbia/Alberta. Deep tropical moisture that is building across the Caribbean Sea will enter the Western Gulf by mid week. PW’s of 2+ inches and a return flow off the Gulf with SE breezes will likely set the stage for increasing rainfall chances late on Thursday (July4th) and extend into the long Holiday weekend. The NCEP ensembles as well as the Euro ensemble mean suggests that an area of tropical disturbed weather may fester in the Bay of Campeche as the upper air pattern becomes a bit more supportive as TS Dalila moves along the Mexican Pacific Coast and the northerly flow aloft transitions to a more southerly flow as the upper trough axis shifts W late next week.

 

 

[msp]

never been as hot at the beach as i was saturday. it was 94F and felt every degree of that.  walking around downtown houston that night was even more miserable; the stagnant air was suffocating.  really looking forward to the upper-80s and low-90s in FTW early this week before i head up to lake superior for a week or so.

[DoctorMu]

After a record high Saturday, record lows are in jeopardy the next 3 days.

 

This evening felt pleasant with dry, cooling northerly winds.

[Ed Lizard]

GFS and Euro have backed off a smidge on weekend rain happiness.

 

 

No panic.  Yet.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

 

After record heat on Saturday, a weak cool front has in fact moved off the coast ushering in an usually dry and “cool” air mass for the first week of July.

 

Dry air continues to settle southward this morning with dewpoints falling into the 50’s and 60’s across the region which is rare for July. Mid level temperatures are also cooling and while the surface dry air will heat up quickly only looking at the mid 90’s today and likely a little cooler on Tuesday. With dry air in place, overnight lows will fall toward those dry dewpoints or into the 60’s across the area. While it will still be warm during the day, the lack of significant humidity will make it feel near the actual temperature or similar to a “dry heat”.

 

Main part of this forecast will focus on a major upcoming pattern change that promises a significant increase in rain chances toward the end of the week and next weekend. Large upper level trough over the MS valley this morning will be forced westward (retro-grade) due to building Atlantic ridging over the western Atlantic. This trough axis will only slowly move westward taking nearly the entire week to reach eastern TX. While there is some significant difference in the model guidance on where this axis resides by the end of the week and where a possible mid or upper level low develops over the southern plains…the overall trend is toward a very wet pattern. At the same time as this trough axis drifts westward, a strong tropical wave will move west out of the Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf of Mexico with a pool of deep tropical moisture (PWS 2.2-2.4 inches) flooding much of the central and eastern Gulf by late this week. This moisture will be drawn northward on the eastern side of the trough axis bringing potentially significant rainfall.

 

Current thinking is that the area will salvage a decent 4^th of July as the trough axis will likely be just east (near the TX/LA state line) on Thursday with dry air still in place over our region. Tropical air mass will be lurking not far away and expect it to arrive into the coastal waters late Thursday and on the coast Friday with rain chances increasing south of I-10 on Friday. Brunt of tropical surge arrives Saturday into Sunday with PWS climbing to well over 2.0 inches and trough axis/mid level low developing/moving into central TX placing our region under very favorable upper air divergence and lift. Patterns such as these can produce some incredible rainfall in short periods of time and while rain chances will be increasing and peaking over the weekend and a flood threat may also develop. Mid and upper level low pressure systems can at times begin to act like tropical cyclones when embedded within a tropical air mass…this usually results in very heavy concentrated rainfall near the core of the system overnight and in the early morning hours and then banding of rainfall on the fringes during the afternoon hours. Rainfall rates in such a moist nearly saturated air mass will approach or exceed 2-3 inches per hour.  

 

Models have also been bouncing around with attempting to close off the trough wave/trough axis over the western Gulf and this would not be out of the question given the likely extensive amounts of thunderstorms that will be ongoing off the TX coast Friday-Sunday. Regardless if a surface low did form, the impacts would be nearly the same with copious rainfall across SE TX into the coastal bend.

[DoctorMu]

Bring on the tropics!  fingers crossed.

 

We reached a nadir of 68°F last night.  This ties the record of 68° set in 1985 in CLL.  Records of 60° and 70° are expected to fall the next 2 nights.