Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

[Ed Lizard]

There was a strong severe t-storm yesterday in Mty. Hail, winds, rain, flash flood and especially the lightning were all present. It affected mostly the eastern 2/3's of the metro area (i live in the wern 1/3, and even I got the chair popping thunder, probably just a few hundred feet from the house). Lightning show consisted of once per second C2G and C2C lightning for at least 2-3 hours. A photo I took from my FB feed:

 

monterrey_t_storm.jpg

What kind of exposure?

 

A lot less local coverage than yesterday, but the sea breeze has a few storms, I can see a full monty storm with anvil to the SE of my office.

[wxmx]

I investigated and the photo was plagiarism

 

http://es.sott.net/image/image/s4/98859/full/rayos_Nuevo_M_xico1.jpg

[Ed Lizard]

I investigated and the photo was plagiarism

 

http://es.sott.net/image/image/s4/98859/full/rayos_Nuevo_M_xico1.jpg

Still cool.

 

For some reason, airbrush depictions of La Silla in Monterrey on Houston area pickups are popular.  Which is only interesting because about a decade ago I read that Pace picante sauce was the #1 seller in Garza-Garcia, because it was imported. 

 

Giant thunderstorm about to reach the office suddenly gusted out.  Nice outflow boundary went racing by the office, and it is past the lawn w/o rain, but I got good rain yesterday, and maybe it'll reach Dr. Mu.

 

After that, heat ridge of death builds in, near 100ºF (near 38º Canadian) all this week, Winter lasted into May, a few weeks of Spring, and now Summer...

[My Weather Today]

I edited the end of DWF's forecast discussion for them...

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
254 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT
MORE BEFORE SUNSET. THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER RIDGE IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND THIS WILL BE OUR DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH
TEXAS AND THIS LOW WILL LIKELY BE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ON THE
UPPER PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST...BRINGING FURTHER SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION. HIGHS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH UPPER 90S
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR MOST OF THE AREA ALLOWING HEAT
INDICES TO REACH THE 100S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN CONUS...WHICH WILL BUDGE THE RIDGE AND ALLOW IT TO SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WHICH WAS CAUGHT UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTH INTO WEST TEXAS AND THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS
WEST OF OUR CWA BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR NORTH TEXAS. WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND WITH THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST...SOME DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THIS WILL DECREASE THE
HUMIDITY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE CENTURY MARK
AS A RESULT. NEVERTHELESS...SUMMER HAS ARRIVED AND THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE LOOKS TO BE A MAJOR PLAYER WITH NORTH TEXAS WEATHER
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 TO 10  DAYS  WEEKS.

HAMPSHIRE
 

[Srain]

If the 00Z Euro is correct, the heat ridge will begin to weaken next week and increasing tropical moisture spreads generally NW in the Western Gulf. The Euro is even suggesting a possible TD or weak TS moving toward Kenedy/Kleberg Counties between Brownsville and Corpus in about 8-10 days. We will see.

 

 

[DoctorMu]

Some morning seabreeze action.  Hoping for a taste before the spigot is turned off...at least until next week (?)

[Ed Lizard]

12Z GFS ridge when its disturbance is in the Gulf, centered somewhere near LBB, says a happy Dolly like border landfall with beneficial rains for the lawn is somewhat unlikely, and we're close enough to the ridge that I'd expect sea breeze activity to be somewhat stifled.

[DoctorMu]

The seabreeze is being absolutely crushed today around Navasota.  Welcome to summer in central Texas!

[Ed Lizard]

Cool time lapse of rotating supercell near Booker, TX.  Lookjs like it comes close to producing.

 

http://vimeo.com/67995158

[DoctorMu]

Impressive seabreeze near Victoria on the S side of the ridge

[Srain]

Other than a drought parched Panhandle, Texas is making a recovery along the Rio Grande Valley and the Edwards Plateau courtesy  of an U/L S of the Big Bend in Mexico and pw's in the 2+ range.

 

 

[wxmx]

Other than a drought parched Panhandle, Texas is making a recovery along the Rio Grande Valley and the Edwards Plateau courtesy  of an U/L S of the Big Bend in Mexico and pw's in the 2+ range.

 

 

 

 

Yep, deluge, with 6"+ in spots along the border, with a spot of 10"+ in Coahuila...according to radar estimates. Some rain here, nothing extraordinary, but welcomed.

[Srain]

 

Other than a drought parched Panhandle, Texas is making a recovery along the Rio Grande Valley and the Edwards Plateau courtesy  of an U/L S of the Big Bend in Mexico and pw's in the 2+ range.

 

 

 

 

Yep, deluge, with 6"+ in spots along the border, with a spot of 10"+ in Coahuila...according to radar estimates. Some rain here, nothing extraordinary, but welcomed.

 

 The 00Z GFS suggests more where that came from. The pattern looks conducive to increased moisture across the Region...

 

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

 

Upper level high pressure centered just north of the region has been unable to gain a strong foothold on the region this week. Mid level “tropical” low over northern MX continues to draw deep tropical moisture NW over the lower and middle TX coast into SW TX where the SE winds are driven upward by lift from the low and the increasing elevation. Heavy rains continue in the area W and SW of San Antonio into MX. This feature will begin to slowly lift NNW today into W TX bringing much needed rainfall to a parched W TX. To our east the cold front responsible for all the severe weather yesterday over the OH Valley and Mid Atlantic will is currently pushing SW across W MS into E LA. This boundary will continue a WSW to W progression today under the steering of the high pressure to its NNW and convective induce outflow boundaries. This boundary will likely reach the Sabine River by late afternoon.

 

The upper ridge has never been able to entrench enough to result in strong enough subsidence to kill rain chances completely over the region. This is in part to the tropical low to our west helping to pump moisture and latent heat into the ridge and rain cooled S winds moving off S TX helping to offset the heating under the ridge. Additionally the grounds are more wet than dry across much of E TX from rainfall over the recent weeks and this is preventing strong surface heating (ie widespread 100 degrees). As seen the past few days, the seabreeze will likely set off a few thunderstorms this afternoon over the region and the incoming boundary from the NE may get close enough to develop more intense late afternoon activity from the Lake Livingston SSE to High Island area especially where the seabreeze and this feature meet up. Soundings for our NE counties around Livingston show a breakable cap with surface temperatures in the low 90’s which should be easily achieved. Storms in this region could have a damaging wind threat given the inverted sounding profile and this will result in strong outflow boundaries moving WSW to SW into the region late this evening. Storms could go until an hour or two after dark moving in from the NE. The main question is how far west they may get this afternoon and evening and this likely depends on what time and where the storms develop.

 

Weakness remains just to our east on Saturday and suspect with heating another round of storms will develop and track WSW toward the area out of the Sabine region. Not overly confident in widespread coverage of rainfall, but something to keep an eye on as such NE flow type events tend to happen near/after peak heating and pose a damaging wind risk.

 

Through next week the ridge does not look to gain control with a general weakness in the height field aloft. This should allow for daily seabreeze induced storms. Tropical moisture surges into the Bay of Campeche for the middle to end of next week and will need to keep an eye down south for any possible NW movement of this deeper moisture which would help to enhance rain chances.

[Srain]

Reports of flooding ongoing from Eagle Pass N to Del Rio and a bit E into the Edwards Plateau. Several tropical funnels have been reported as well.

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1078
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1052 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...AREAS ADJACENT TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

   VALID 141552Z - 141715Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
   AFTERNOON. WW IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...CELLULAR CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ERN PERIPHERY
   OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NNWWD AT AROUND 30 KT. THESE
   STORMS ARE OCCURRING IN A VERY MOIST BUT WEAK LAPSE RATE
   ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS YIELDING MARGINAL CAPE VALUES. HOWEVER...WIND
   PROFILE FROM THE DFX RADAR SHOWS ELY SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO SLY AT
   3 KM AGL...RESULTING IN LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND 0-3
   KM SRH VALUES NEAR 300 M2 S-2. AS A RESULT...ROTATING STORMS HAVE
   BEEN OBSERVED...A FEW OF WHICH MAY POSE A BRIEF WEAK ISOLATED
   TORNADO THREAT. THIS THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
   WIND SPEEDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SHEAR
   SUBSEQUENTLY DECREASES IN MAGNITUDE.

   ..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 06/14/2013


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

 

 

 

[Ed Lizard]

Reports of flooding ongoing from Eagle Pass N to Del Rio and a bit E into the Edwards Plateau. Several tropical funnels have been reported as well.

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1078

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

   1052 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...AREAS ADJACENT TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

   VALID 141552Z - 141715Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY

   AFTERNOON. WW IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...CELLULAR CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ERN PERIPHERY

   OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NNWWD AT AROUND 30 KT. THESE

   STORMS ARE OCCURRING IN A VERY MOIST BUT WEAK LAPSE RATE

   ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS YIELDING MARGINAL CAPE VALUES. HOWEVER...WIND

   PROFILE FROM THE DFX RADAR SHOWS ELY SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO SLY AT

   3 KM AGL...RESULTING IN LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND 0-3

   KM SRH VALUES NEAR 300 M2 S-2. AS A RESULT...ROTATING STORMS HAVE

   BEEN OBSERVED...A FEW OF WHICH MAY POSE A BRIEF WEAK ISOLATED

   TORNADO THREAT. THIS THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE

   WIND SPEEDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SHEAR

   SUBSEQUENTLY DECREASES IN MAGNITUDE.

   ..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 06/14/2013

   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

 

06142013 mcd1078.gif

 

06142013 TX VIS 19Z latest.jpg

 

 

 

Maybe not all at once, but they needed the rain.  That'd be an impressive sounding for LCH in mid-JUne

 

[Srain]

Warm core rain event unfolded overnight where 9.5 Inches of tropical rains fell in the Eagle Pass area. The Rio Grande River is expected to reach flood stages that have not been seen is the July 1976 flood event. Two day totals in some locations are nearing the 10 to 15 inch amounts with some isolated higher totals across The Edwards Plateau to the Rio Grande River.

[Srain]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

...24 AND 36 HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH

CENTRAL TEXAS...

...LATEST 36 HOUR PRECIPITATION REPORTS...

...LOCATION... ...TIME... ...AMT...

EAGLE PASS (MAVERICK TX) 900 AM JUN 15 17.05 IN

3 NNE EAGLE PASS (MAVERICK TX) 700 AM JUN 15 16.65 IN

...LATEST 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION REPORTS...

...LOCATION... ...TIME... ...AMT...

EAGLE PASS (MAVERICK TX) 900 AM JUN 15 15.17 IN

3 NNE EAGLE PASS (MAVERICK TX) 700 AM JUN 15 10.00 IN

BRACKETTVILLE (KINNEY TX) 900 AM JUN 15 6.50 IN

5 W BRACKETTVILLE (KINNEY TX) 700 AM JUN 15 5.84 IN

3 NNE CARRIZO SPRINGS (DIMMIT TX) 700 AM JUN 15 4.65 IN

CRYSTAL CITY (ZAVALA TX) 900 AM JUN 15 4.30 IN

SPOFFORD (KINNEY TX) (COCORAHS) 815 AM JUN 15 4.25 IN

7 ENE BARKSDALE (REAL TX) (COCORAHS) 700 AM JUN 15 3.85 IN

CARRIZO SPRINGS (DIMMIT TX) (COOP) 700 AM JUN 15 3.72 IN

14 NNW ALAMO VILLAGE (KINNEY TX) (RAWS) 900 AM JUN 15 3.61 IN

12 NE ROCKSPRINGS (EDWARDS TX) (LCRA) 925 AM JUN 15 3.18 IN

16 E CARTA VALLEY (EDWARDS TX) 808 AM JUN 15 3.04 IN

17 E CARTA VALLEY (EDWARDS TX) 800 AM JUN 15 3.04 IN

9 ESE ROCKSPRINGS (EDWARDS TX) 700 AM JUN 15 2.91 IN

5 NW REAGAN WELLS (UVALDE TX) 800 AM JUN 15 2.86 IN

6 NNE ROCKSPRINGS (EDWARDS TX) 700 AM JUN 15 2.85 IN

ROCKSPRINGS (EDWARDS TX) (COOP) 700 AM JUN 15 2.80 IN

9 WSW ROCKSPRINGS (EDWARDS TX) 700 AM JUN 15 2.47 IN

26 N BRACKETTVILLE (KINNEY TX) (COOP) 800 AM JUN 15 2.30 IN

14 NW LEAKEY (REAL TX) (COCORAHS) 800 AM JUN 15 2.25 IN

5 NW ROCKSPRINGS (EDWARDS TX) 800 AM JUN 15 2.20 IN

OBSERVATIONS ARE COLLECTED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES WITH VARYING

EQUIPMENT AND EXPOSURES. NOT ALL DATA LISTED IS CONSIDERED OFFICIAL. THE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THANKS ITS PRIVATE AND PUBLIC PARTNERS FOR

PROVIDING US WITH THIS DATA.

[msp]

rio grande at laredo making a run at moderate flood stage with a forecast crest at 19.7 ft

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=crp&gage=ldot2

 

at 20 ft:

 

MODERATE LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS. WATER IS SEVERAL FEET DEEP OVER MOST OF THE MALL AND CUSTOMS PARKING LOTS. THE LOWEST RESIDENCES ARE THREATENED AND ROADS AND LOW BRIDGES BECOME VERY DANGEROUS

[wxmx]

Alex and Td#2 crest and flooding is still recent in Laredo's people (and others) mind. It reached 42.45ft. 20-30ft will certainly be disrupting, but still far away from the top crests.

[Ed Lizard]

Watered the lawn for the first time in a week and a half.  The brief, somewhat rainier spell was nice.  But it looks like death ridge time is coming.

 

But at least DFW area people can take a few more days off watering.

[DoctorMu]

Outflow boundary sighting from the DFW storms.  Whether they have enough oomph to make it to CLL is another story.

 

 

Another great day for air conditioning.

[DoctorMu]

Best chance at scattered showers in the CLL and HOU areas this week.  A wispy outflow boundary and SE bound disorganized cluster may trigger some storms this afternoon.  Most of the action though should be from I-45 east...

 

000
FXUS64 KHGX 181520
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1020 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
NOT AN EASY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES...ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM CALDWELL TO MADISONVILLE TO
CROCKETT. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHEAST
THAT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE COASTAL COUNTIES BUT HAS YET TO PRODUCE
ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IF THIS BOUNDARY HAS NOT STABILIZED THE AREA
ENOUGH AND SKIES CAN REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME STORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. FOR THE
MORNING UPDATE (EVERYTHING IS ALREADY OUT)...KEPT AREA POPS IN A 20%-40%
RANGE. UP NORTH AND NORTHWEST...LOWERED THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WHERE IT APPEARS EXTRA CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

[msp]

a tenth of an inch last night at meacham... sounded like more though.  had some nice gusty winds for a time.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

 

Rain chances continue today with numerous boundaries in place across the region after a fairly active late afternoon and early evening yesterday east of I-45.

 

Weakness in the upper level ridge continues over SE TX this morning, but the ridge axis is starting to build eastward from W TX and MX. Locally numerous boundaries from late evening storms yesterday are laying across the region and with a moist and unstable air mass still in place expect additional thunderstorms to develop by late morning into early afternoon. A few storms are already going from the Lake Livingston area SE into the Lake Charles area this morning. Think the best rain chances will again be along and east of a line from Huntsville to Sugar Land to Freeport where less influence of the building upper ridge is found and this region is closer to the lift from upper level energy passing NE of the area.

 

As noted yesterday evening over SE Harris County slow storm motions in this very tropical air mass (PWS 1.8-1.9 inches) will support some very heavy to excessive rainfall in a short period of time. Storm motions today look to be on the slow side again with weak steering aloft and mainly       driven by outflow boundaries. Locations that fall under the heavy rainfall cores could easily see 2-3 inches of rainfall in an hour or less.

 

Upper ridge gains ground on Thursday and this should at least reduce rain chances. Thus far this summer the ridge has not been able to fully assert its full potential as suggested by the model guidance….likely to guidance trending toward a drier ground helping to pump the ridge some. Vegetation and ground moisture is doing fairly well with the recent rains which is helping to negate some of the warming of the upper ridge. With this in mind…think the seabreeze may be able to generate a few isolated storms each afternoon through Saturday. By Sunday a surge of deep tropical moisture looks to arrive on the TX coast and will likely result in a more active seabreeze front with scattered to possibly even numerous showers and thunderstorms.

 

TD#2:

Poorly organized tropical depression # 2 has emerged over the Bay of Campeche. The system is currently undergoing fairly strong SW wind shear with nearly all of the deep convection displaced to the northern side of the circulation. Forecast models show the wind shear greatly lessening in the next 24 hours as the depression slowly moves westward. Given the increasingly favorable conditions in the Bay of Campeche, the depression should intensify into a tropical storm prior to landfall late Thursday on the eastern coast of Mexico. With the system deep in the southern Gulf and its limited time over the open waters to generate swells, do not see much if any impact toward the TX coast from either moisture or wave action. Upper ridging building into TX over the next few days will help shunt all of the moisture west into MX well south of the TX coast.   

[Ed Lizard]

Showers, showers everywhere, and so far, not a drop for my lawn.

 

Meanwhile, to the Northwest

 

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1128
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0110 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN THROUGH NCNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

   VALID 191810Z - 191945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER NWRN TX CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY
   SEWD. STRONG DIABATIC WARMING HAS BOOSTED SFC TEMPERATURES INTO THE
   UPPER 80S ALONG MOIST AXIS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 70...BUT
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE RATHER WARM /7C AT 500 MB/. LATEST OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY /1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE/ IN WARM
   SECTOR DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MCS. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO
   INCREASE ALONG SWD ADVANCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT INTERCEPTS WARM
   MOIST AIR WITHIN THE DESTABILIZING AND WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER.
   DEEP LAYER WINDS ARE RATHER MODEST WITH WEAK SLY NEAR SFC WINDS
   VEERING TO WNWLY 25 KT AT 500 MB. THIS WIND PROFILE IS AT BEST
   MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT
   WILL PROMOTE A FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STRONG
   TO SEVERE STORMS NEXT FEW HOURS.

   POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE RISING HEIGHTS...WARM AIR
   ALOFT...MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL SHEAR SO ANY WW
   ISSUANCE WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 06/19/2013


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   33479884 33319848 32239742 31249896 32330040 32790034
               33129946 33479884

 

 

[DoctorMu]

Outflows to the north of us, outflows to the south of us...will the twains meet?

 

FXUS64 KHGX 192033
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
333 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARILY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR...OR DEVELOPING WHERE THE HIGHER MOISTURE
RESIDES. SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW PROPAGATING
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE COUNTY MAY PROVIDE BETTER LOW LEVEL FOCUS
FOR MORE WESTERN-BASED LATE AFTERNOON STORMS. IF THE REGION DOESN`T
FEEL THE DOWNSTREAM EFFECTS OF THE NORTHERN TEXAS S/W...THEN LOCAL
MESOSCALE BREEZES...SUCH AS THE SEA (OR BAY) BREEZE...MAY ALSO
AID IN PROVIDING THAT LATE DAY FOCUS. WITH LOW 90F CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES BEING MET WITHIN A MOIST ENOUGH ENVIRONMENT...ANY
BLOSSOMING ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 6 HOURS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ALONG THESE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

[SmokeEater]

TOG just west of Lubbock.

 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
535 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

 

TXC219-192300-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-130619T2300Z/
HOCKLEY TX-
535 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

 

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN HOCKLEY
COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

 

AT 532 PM CDT...TRAINED STORM SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A TORNADO.  THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SUNDOWN...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LEVELLAND...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. MULTIPLE REPORTS OF A TORNADO
HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.

 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LEVELLAND...SUNDOWN AND OPDYKE WEST.

[Ed Lizard]

TOG just west of Lubbock.

 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX

535 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

 

TXC219-192300-

/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-130619T2300Z/

HOCKLEY TX-

535 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

 

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN HOCKLEY

COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

 

AT 532 PM CDT...TRAINED STORM SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A TORNADO.  THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SUNDOWN...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

LEVELLAND...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. MULTIPLE REPORTS OF A TORNADO

HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.

 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

  LEVELLAND...SUNDOWN AND OPDYKE WEST.

 

 

David Drummond was on that storm.  http://www.kcbd.com/story/22639230/sundown-tornado-destroys-occidental-petroleum-building

 

[DoctorMu]

Death ridge now in place.