Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

[DoctorMu]

1.03 in of wet stuff IMBY.  Spotty showers on and off this afternoon, but not much additional accumulation expected.  Green foliage and grass in CLL - we'll enjoy it while it lasts!

[Srain]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0646
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0524 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
  
   AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
  
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
  
   VALID 152224Z - 160100Z
  
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
  
   SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
   ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU VICINITY/WEST-CENTRAL TX AND PERHAPS
   SOUTH-CENTRAL TX...WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. A DAMAGING
   WIND THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE AS WELL THIS EVENING.
  
   DISCUSSION...PER VISIBLE SATELLITE...CU FIELD HAS DEEPENED A DEGREE
   OVER THE PAST 1-2 HR ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TX IN GENERAL VICINITY OF A
   BROWNWOOD TO JUNCTION TX CORRIDOR...WITH OTHER HIGHER-BASED CU
   EVIDENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX FROM BETWEEN LUBBOCK-MIDLAND SOUTHWARD
   TO EAST OF FORT STOCKTON/NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEAR
   SANDERSON. HEATING/MIXING ASIDE...THE HIGH-BASED CU DEVELOPMENT MAY
   BE ENHANCED BY A VORTICITY MAXIMA/JET STREAK PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD
   OVER THE REGION AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/REGIONAL DERIVED WIND
   DATA. SIMILAR TO SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE 18Z NAM AND HIGH-RES
   WRF-NMM/WRF-NSSL...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONG/SEVERE TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND OTHER PARTS OF
   WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
   AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE SOMEWHAT RICHER
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE THE CU FIELD APPEARS RELATIVELY SUPPRESSED
   WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE NEAR/SOUTH OF DEL RIO...A STORM OR TWO
   DEVELOPING/CROSSING THE BORDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
   REGARDLESS...STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 40+ KT OF
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE
   HAIL...ALTHOUGH SOME MCS-TYPE DEVELOPMENT COULD MATERIALIZE LATER
   THIS EVENING WITH MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
  
   ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/15/2013
  
  
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
 

 

[DoctorMu]

Large Hail (grapefruit size) and tornadoes in central to North Texas.  Over 100 injured in Granbury and 3 dead

 

[Srain]

The pesky potent upper low that has plagued our Region is finally lifting NE. Warm and muggy weather should be the theme for the next several days. I have some concern that as a Western trough develops and disturbances rotate beneath that trough as well as a sagging boundary drops S into Texas, a repeat of severe weather may return to mainly N Central Texas where the killer tornadoes developed W of Dallas/Ft Worth yesterday afternoon. The pattern is looking like what is typically seen in April rather than May. We will see.

 

 



[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

 

Plume of smoke has returned into the area this morning from agricultural fires burning on the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

 

Late evening visible images yesterday should a widespread and at times dense area of smoke over much of the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf of Mexico and with southerly winds advecting this plume northward it has arrived into TX overnight. Will continue to see periodic intrusions of dense smoke (visibilities 3-6 miles) as long as southerly winds remain in place which looks like most of this week.

 

Ridging has built over the area this weekend allowing hot afternoon high temperatures and continued moist onshore flow keeping dewpoints in the sticky 70’s making it feel like summer. Luckily south winds of 15-25mph have helped mix the afternoon air making it feel a touch cooler. Little chance in the overall pattern is expected today and Tuesday although a strong short wave trough will swing through the base of the large trough over the western US late Tuesday. West and central TX dry line will surge eastward in the afternoon hours on Tuesday with the air mass becoming very unstable across central TX. Significant capping is shown on the morning soundings with the placement of the upper level ridge nearby and it is going to be hard to erode this cap on Tuesday. However think storms will break the cap and rapidly go severe with CAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg over central TX by late afternoon. Main threat will be extreme hail although 40-50kts of WSW shear could support a tornado. Initial isolated supercells will gradually grow upscale into a line of storms with the threats shifting to wind damage overnight. Current thinking is that these storms may approach or even move across the northern 1/3^rd of SE TX Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but the southern extent of this activity will be strongly tied to the intensity of the capping over the region. Currently looking hard pressed to break the cap south of HWY 105.

 

A low level boundary looks to sink southward from these storms on Wednesday and this may offer a window for storms to develop in the afternoon hours if the cap can be overcome.

 

Otherwise continued hot and humid with breezy onshore flow and periods of smoke/haze.      

[canderson]

NWS Shreveport issued stern warning for NE Texas. They're having a conf call with local officials tomorrow to prepare for storms.

“Severe weather looks pretty likely,” said weather service meteorologist Chris Nuttall. “The bullseye would be Waco to Little Rock with Tyler and Longview right in the middle. Shreveport to Monroe would be on the eastern edge and Dallas on the western edge.”

[DoctorMu]

Hearne to Marshall could see some action in the form of scattered severe cells...a few taking that right turn signature.

[DoctorMu]

Some rotation in the tail end cell E of Killeen heading to Hearne, but per the observation thread there has been no funnel development.

[Ed Lizard]

Bummer.

 

Lightning, and maybe a tenth of a inch of rain.  At least solid rains up the San Jacinto, although my MUD is well water.

[Srain]

Thursday into Friday may hold some potential for our chasecation crew in AMA/LUB.

[DoctorMu]

1.4 in IMBY and the grass is rockin'   The Mexican White Oak I overpampered (we don't need no stinkin' fertilizer!) in preparation for the summer is starting to revive - I think.  Tough love for now on.

 

 

Slight chance of rain again Friday - main action as sRain mentioned is west.

[Ed Lizard]

Might be about a week away from some residual mid-level moisture, if GFS forecast of a TC landfalling on the EPAC Mexican coast verifies.

[Srain]

Thursday into Friday may hold some potential for our chasecation crew in AMA/LUB.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

 

Large thunderstorm complex overnight across W and now into SW TX has produced much needed widespread rainfall over that area including nearly 5 inches around Junction this morning. This complex has developed a MVC (area of meso scale low pressure) near Del Rio currently while a short wave trough over N MX is also moving eastward into SW TX. Expect currently activity ongoing west of San Antonio to weaken with time this morning as is usually the diurnal process to such complexes. High  resolution meso models bring the remains of this system toward the NW ½ of SE TX during peak heating this afternoon. Forecast soundings over our northern and NW counties by 300pm should an unstable air mass with CAPE values of 3000 J/kg and a weakening to breakable cap. Models are fairly aggressive in breaking out thunderstorms along and N of the HWY 105 corridor by mid afternoon into the evening hours. HRRR model suggests storms will develop as far south as the US 59 corridor while the other models  are displaced further to the north. Given pooling moisture and weaker capping over the northern counties, think the latter solution will verify best, but the potential for an inland moving sebreeze boundary could help to develop as few storms southward.

 

Storm motions will be slow with weak steering aloft and with PWS of 1.5-1.8 inches by this afternoon north of I-10 some heavy rainfall looks possible. This is the same area that had heavy rainfall Tuesday night/Wednesday morning but is also the area that was in the worst drought conditions over our area. Given the forecast instability, a few storms could become strong to severe with large hail and gusty winds the main threats.  

 

While an upper ridge attempts to build over the area over the holiday weekend, models are continuing to hint at locally induced convection being possible possibly along a seabreeze boundary or incoming boundaries from a more unsettled pattern over W TX. Think it is best to hold on to daily 20% chances through at least Monday, but today will likely feature the best and most widespread rainfall chances.

 

[Srain]

5 inches of rain has fallen overnight across the Concho Valley/Edwards Plateau in W Central Texas. Lesser amount have fallen down toward Del Rio as a slow moving mesoscale convection system dropped S. There is a short wave moving NE in old Mexico that will may well interact with the decaying MCS where multiple boundaries have developed. The 06Z WRF is suggesting storms fire across much of Central and SE Texas later today except closer to the Coast where capping may be a bit stronger. N of I-10, there appears to be no capping issues and training cell may become an issue with heavy rainfall into Saturday before we dry out.
 

[Srain]

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
723 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

TXC385-241300-

REAL TX-
723 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT FOR REAL
COUNTY...

AT 715 AM CDT...STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST HOUR AROUND
REAL COUNTY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SHOWING NOW ON RADAR. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA
THIS MORNING AS ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR MORE
ACTIVITY. SO FAR...RADAR STORM TOTALS IMAGE SHOWS ABOUT 3.5 INCHES
OVER BARKSDALE AND A BIT MORE THAN 7 INCHES OVER PRADE RANCH. ON THE
OTHER HAND...OBSERVED DATA FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER RAIN GAGE
LOCATED IN NORTHWEST OF TUFF...REPORTS 4.31 INCHES FOR THE LAST 6
HOURS WHILE THE USGS RAIN GAGE LOCATED NEAR BARKSDALE SHOWS 4.95
INCHES FOR THE LAST 4 HOURS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE PRADE RANCH.

 

[DoctorMu]

old meso may interact with weak front in NW counties in the HOU area.  The I-35 corridor is primed.  Moist and meaty up in CLL.

 

 

DISCUSSION...
AT 06Z...A WEAK FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA...ALONG THE
RED RIVER AND THEN UP TOWARDS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A LONG LIVED
MCS WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND MCV WAS FORMING SOUTHWEST
OF KSJT. AT 850 MB...DEW POINTS WERE BETWEEN 12-14C AND A WEAK
850 MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER SW TX AND A SECOND WEAKER TROUGH
OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA. SEVERAL TROUGH AXES WERE NOTED AT 700 MB
WITH ONE IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...ANOTHER IN SW TX AND A THIRD
ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA EXTENDING INTO EASTERN TEXAS. AT 300
MB...WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WAS NOTED OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS
WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING INTO EAST
TEXAS. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT 850 MB COUPLED WITH THE NUMEROUS
850/700 MB BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE FCST SOUNDING
FOR KCLL AT 21Z IS LOADED WITH PW VALUES SURGING TO 1.7 INCHES AND
A K INDEX AT 42. CAPE VALUES APPROACH 3000 AND LI VALUES ARE -8.
THESE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. MOVEMENT
WILL ALSO BE ON THE SLOW SIDE TODAY SO IF STORMS DEVELOP...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT. THE HI-RES MODELS DID NOT PERFORM
WELL YESTERDAY BUT SEEMED TO INITIALIZE A BIT BETTER TODAY AND
BOTH THE NMM AND ARW SHOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON SO RAISED POPS TO CHANCE. CLOSER TO THE COAST...
ADDITIONAL CAPPING AND LOWER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES.

MOISTURE LEVELS DROP ON SATURDAY BUT A WEAKNESS ALOFT UNDER CUTTING
THE RIDGE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL STILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER MAINLY THE NW HALF OF THE REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES A
BIT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO RAIN. MEX
NUMBERS AGAIN LOOK TOO COOL WITH THE UPPER RIDGE NEARBY...SO AGAIN
WENT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN MEX GUIDANCE AND LEANED TOWARD
THE WARMER ECMWF. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE DIFFERENT THIS MORNING AS
THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FURTHER EAST BY WEDNESDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO ARIZONA. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH
THE TROUGH AND THIS SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE CANADIAN. THE GFS
IS WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TROUGH. LIFT SHOULD INCREASE
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THU/FRI SO ADDED LOW POPS BACK TO THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT THU/FRI. 43

[Srain]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1142 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

TXZ205-241730-
BEXAR-
1142 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN BEXAR COUNTY UNTIL 1230
PM CDT...

AT 1142 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SEA WORLD...OR 9 MILES WEST OF SAN
ANTONIO...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  SEA WORLD...
  LEON VALLEY...
  SHAVANO PARK...
  HELOTES...
  CROSS MOUNTAIN...
  THE DOMINION...
  LEON SPRINGS...
  BALCONES HEIGHTS...
  CASTLE HILLS...
  FIESTA TEXAS...

 

[DoctorMu]

I was just going to post the flash flood warning N of Uvalde.  Sea World is being drenched by the outflow.

[Srain]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0791
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1242 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX HILL COUNTRY...S-CNTRL TX...SE TX...

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

   VALID 241742Z - 241945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LINE OF TSTMS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE WRN TX HILL
   COUNTRY INTO S-CNTRL TX WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
   OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED BUT ISOLATED STRONG WINDS
   AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. SVR THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO
   REMAIN LOW...PRECLUDING WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MCV
   CENTERED OVER THE SRN EDWARDS PLATEAU WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGHOUT
   THE DAY. BASED ON REGIONAL RADARS...EWD PROPAGATION OF THE
   CONVECTIVE LINE IS APPROXIMATELY ENE AT 20-25 KT...WHICH TAKES THE
   LINE THROUGH MUCH OF S-CNTRL TX BY 21Z. THE SEVERE THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED PRIMARILY BY WEAK SHEAR. 12Z CRP SOUNDING
   REVEALED WEAK...MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SELY WINDS THROUGH 600 MB.
   RECENT EWX AND CRP VWPS SHOW APPROXIMATELY 20 KT AND 10 KT OF 0-6 KM
   SHEAR...RESPECTIVELY. AS SUCH...CONTINUED PROPAGATION EWD INTO THE
   INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE BUT ANY TYPE OF ORGANIZATION OR UPSCALE
   GROWTH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. PER RECENT MESOANALYSIS...THE ENVIRONMENT
   ACROSS S-CNTRL TX AND SE TX IS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE GREATER THAN
   2000 J PER KG AND PW VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES. THIS TYPE OF
   ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH WATER
   LOADING AND SOME SMALL HAIL. LOW ANTICIPATED SEVERE THREAT PRECLUDES
   WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/24/2013


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
 

 

[Srain]

Rain where it is sorely needed:

 

[bubba hotep]

Good old fashion gully washer tonight!

[Srain]

The flooding continues to our W in San Antonio this morning where 4 inches of rain fell in an hour at the airport. The 06Z HRRR is suggesting showers and storm may move a bit E toward Houston and SE Texas later this afternoon as a speed max drifts our direction in a very blocked pattern with little upper air flow aloft to push this along. We will see.

 

[Srain]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
856 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN ATASCOSA COUNTY...
  SOUTHERN KARNES COUNTY...
  SOUTHWESTERN WILSON COUNTY...

* UNTIL NOON CDT.

* AT 850 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
  DETERMINED THAT RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE SLOW
  MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED   
  AREA. RAINFALL RATES OF 3 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR WERE ESTIMATED BY RADAR
  ACROSS NORTHERN LIVE OAK AND NORTHERN BEE COUNTIES MOVING SLOWLY  
  NORTH. 

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
  OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  CAMPBELLTON...CHRISTINE...JOURDANTON...KARNES CITY...KENEDY...
  PLEASANTON...FALLS CITY...LEMING AND SMITHSON VALLEY.

 

 

[Srain]

From Nesdis:

 

 

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/25/13 1209Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-14 1145Z   LIDDICK
.
LOCATION...CENTRAL TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINS
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWING AN AREA OF
COLD CLOUD TOP (-71C) INVOF COMAL/BEXAR/ATASCOSA COUNTIES IN CNTRL TX.
THIS CONVECTION HAS REMAINED FIXED OVER THIS LOCATION FOR THE PAST 2
HOURS OR SO.  SOUNDER/MW DATA SHOWING NEAR 2.0" PW ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AND
CNTRL TX.  GIVEN THE COLD OVERSHOOTING TOPS AND HOW LONG THE CONVECTION
HAS PERSISTED CREATING A VERY MOIST PROFILE...ESTIMATING RAINS RATES TO
BE 2"-3"/HR IN SOME AREAS UNDER THESE LOCALIZED HEAVY CORES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1200-1600Z...MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NEAR TERM OUTLOOK WITH VERY
SLOW MOVING CONVECTION PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS INA SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME INVOF  COMAL/BEXAR/ATASCOSA COUNTIES.  WOULD EXPECT THE CONVECTION
TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  WOULD EXPECT
THE AREA TO START TO WEAKEN AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE SRN TIP OF TX THROUGH CNTRL TX.
STILL...THE FLOW IS SETUP FOR TRAINING CELLS AND THE MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
FOR 1"-3"/HR RATES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
 

 

 

[janetjanet998]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX  
849 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A  
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
BEXAR COUNTY...  
 
* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT.  
 
* AT 840 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE  
DETERMINED THAT RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE SLOW  
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF BEXAR  
COUNTY. 8.41 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN RECORDED AT SAN ANTONIO  
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. RADAR ESTIMATES OF 6 TO 9 INCHES EXTEND  
FROM MACDONA TO BETWEEN DOWNTOWN SAN ANTONIO AND LEON VALLEY TO  
HOLLYWOOD PARK. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN CAN  
BE EXPECTED.  
 
THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THE CITY OF SAN ANTONIO. THIS  
IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.

[Srain]

Visible shot of training storms from Corpus to N of Austin this morning.

[Srain]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
942 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN BEXAR COUNTY...
  SOUTHERN BLANCO COUNTY...
  WEST CENTRAL CALDWELL COUNTY...
  COMAL COUNTY...
  GUADALUPE COUNTY...
  HAYS COUNTY...
  EASTERN KENDALL COUNTY...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT.

* AT 932 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
  DETERMINED THAT RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE    
  FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RADAR INDICATED TRAINING
  OF CLUSTERS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUES ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
  FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL     
  RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. SECONDARY          
  ROADS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND BRIDGES ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD     
  ACROSS COMAL...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KENDALL AND BLANCO COUNTIES THE 
  NEXT FEW HOURS.  MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT ENTER LOW WATER CROSSINGS AS
  80 PERCENT OF FLOOD FATALITIES OCCUR THIS WAY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...BLANCO...
  BOERNE...CANYON LAKE DAM...DRIPPING SPRINGS...NEW BRAUNFELS...SAN
  MARCOS...SEGUIN...UNIVERSAL CITY...WIMBERLEY...BERGHEIM...BUDA...
  BULVERDE...CIBOLO...DRIFTWOOD...FAIR OAKS RANCH...FENTRESS...
  FISCHER...FLUGRATH...GARDEN RIDGE...GERONIMO...GUADALUPE RIVER
  STATE PARK...HENLY...KENDALIA...KINGSBURY...KREUTZBERG...KYLE...
  MARION...MARTINDALE...MCQUEENEY AND PAYTON.

 

 

[Srain]

Update from Jeff:

 

NWS has issued a Flash Flood Emergency for Bexar County and the city of San Antonio.

 

This morning 8.77 inches of rainfall has fallen across Bexar County making this the all-time wettest May day on record and only 2 other days ever had recorded more rainfall in the city. Significant and life threatening flash flooding is ongoing across the San Antonio metro area including severe flooding of small creeks and the San Antonio River.

 

Heavy rainfall continues to focus in a zone of low level convergence and moisture influx from Austin to San Antonio to north of Corpus Christi. Rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per an hour have been common under these very slow moving thunderstorms leading to rapid flash flooding. Storms should gradually weaken with time this morning, but the tropical air mass in place will support additional rainfall of 1-3 inches on top of what has fallen.

 

Flash flooding is ongoing and many low water crossings in and around the San Antonio area. Avoid these crossings and if water covers the road…turn around Don’t drown. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
 
 
 

 

 

 

[Srain]

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
951 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

BEXAR TX-
951 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT FOR
BEXAR COUNTY...

...A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY CONTINUES FOR THE SAN ANTONIO METRO
AREA...

AT 942 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER MUCH OF BEXAR
COUNTY. 9.66 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN RECORDED AT SAN ANTONIO  
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. RADAR ESTIMATES OF 6 TO 10 INCHES EXTEND  
FROM MACDONA TO BETWEEN DOWNTOWN SAN ANTONIO AND LEON VALLEY TO  
HOLLYWOOD PARK. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN CAN  
BE EXPECTED.

THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS FLOODING IS SIMILAR TO
THAT OF OCTOBER 17TH IN 1998.

MAJOR FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG LEON CREEK...ZARZAMORA CREEK...OLMOS
CREEK...SALADO CREEK AND SAN ANTONIO RIVER AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO  
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...SAN  
ANTONIO...ALAMO HEIGHTS...CHINA GROVE...CROSS MOUNTAIN...HELOTES... 
HOLLYWOOD PARK...KIRBY...LACKLAND AFB...LEON SPRINGS...LEON  
VALLEY...LIVE OAK...OLMOS PARK...SEA WORLD...SHAVANO PARK... 
SOMERSET...TERRELL HILLS...THE DOMINION...TIMBERWOOD PARK AND  
WINDCREST.