famartin Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 .10 at Andover .10 at Sussex .11 at Morristown .11 at Somerset .13 at Caldwell .15 at Burlington-Monmouth Airport .16 at NYC .17 at Laguardia .19 at JFK .30 at Islip Not to nitpick, but its Belmar-Farmingdale/Monmouth Executive Airport. Burlington is about 40 miles west of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 15z SREF norlun doesn't develop in time, SNE gets it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/tables/snowfall-meltwater.html That's an old table and doesn't take into account temperatures in the snow growth region, lift, etc. Not very reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 15z SREF norlun doesn't develop in time, SNE, gets it Think most pp will take .10 to .25 at minus 15 air and see a few inches on the island If u look at all the members. It's not one is gassed up and skews it. All relatively in line. So if that verifies its not a flurryOk mayb one is a bit gassed. But not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 In NW NJ I have had 40:1 ratios many times with these types of clipper situations depicted on the 84 hr NAM. Areas to the East for NYC and so on would likely be in the 20:1 range. Again, I am speaking of the Wednesday night storm depicted on the 84hr NAM. Right now the model shows surface temps of around 18 degrees here at 7pm on Wednesday with the 850 level at -20. Snow is on our doorsteps at that point. Snow ratio measurements aren't always reliable, especially if you are using an automated gauge. The only fair verification to this would be a CoCoRaHS or COOP report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I only agree with him because he agrees with me . JK . Its true the Euro is coarser then the GFS , so thats a fair point . FYI, Courser = less resolution Finer = more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 FYI, Courser = less resolution Finer = more I'm already married. U tryin out to b wife number 2 ? Just kidding. Ur right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 looks like the SSW helped russia:http://rt.com/news/winter-snow-russia-weather-275/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 looks like the SSW helped russia: http://rt.com/news/winter-snow-russia-weather-275/ Wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 18z NAM came in drier. SNE event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 KNYC doesn't even get to 0.1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 I will never doubt you again gfs and euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I will never doubt you again gfs and euro I wouldn't worry too much. Only problem is that the norlun trough doesn't develop fast enough. If we get it to develop even just a little faster, that will increase our totals a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 As I said earlier, the NAM is garbage ever since they upgraded it. Euro is king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 As I said earlier, the NAM is garbage ever since they upgraded it. Euro is king. Euro still isn't picking up on the idea of a norlun trough, nor is the GFS. At least the NAM and SREF's are, just not in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 If we get it to develop even just a little faster, that will increase our totals a lot. Is cloud seeding an option? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 As I said earlier, the NAM is garbage ever since they upgraded it. Euro is king. As it stands now most of us will see a dusting to a inch. There will be a band of snow that swings through area tomorrow evening. Better then nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Is cloud seeding an option? Oops, I don't mean we. Just hope something happens that could make it develop it faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 As it stands now most of us will see a dusting to a inch. There will be a band of snow that swings through area tomorrow evening. Better then nothing Good post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 As I said earlier, the NAM is garbage ever since they upgraded it. Euro is king. EURO gave us almost 0.2 in the form of snow from the last system that never made it up the coast. It is most certainly not the King. Let's not exaggerrate the abilities and verification of different models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Good post We still get about .1" on the 18z NAM with high ratios....probably 15:1. Someone probably approaches 2", maybe in the eastern suburbs, as the nickel and dime winter continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Oops, I don't mean we. Just hope something happens that could make it develop it faster. I know pal...I'm just kiddin ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 This is nothing more than a clipper for us. Quick coating-2 inches if somebody gets really lucky. Norlun will probably only hit southern NH, ME. Might as well enjoy the snow and focus on the friday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 when did we get that little event last year,around the same date right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 when did we get that little event last year,around the same date right? Yea, 1/21/12 Picked up 3" with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Next! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 We're getting close to the optimal time for the NAM and its trending in the wrong direction for you guys. SREFs are too. None of the globals seem impressed which does say something, too. A coating to 2 inches seems like the most reasonable forecast for the city right now. With so much model talk I feel something needs to be addressed: Model skill scores point to the EC as the winner but not by much. That doesn't mean its always better, it just means it averages out to being best. Every model has bad days, the EC just has a few less of them. We did see just the other day how the EC can fail and the NAM can beat it, but that was within 24 hours of the event. We're not quite there yet. The NAM is so high resolution that small changes in initial conditions can result in wide variations in solutions, particularly with something mesoscale like a Norlun. That's why its fun to look at, but not the most reliable model beyond 24-30 hours. SREF's are all high resolution models like the NAM so the same problems exist for them, too. It really is important to look at the observations and really see which model is doing best especially in the near-term. That's what made the EC's failure so obvious with the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Upton now has an inch for NYC with more towards LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Yea, 1/21/12 Picked up 3" with that. man,even last winter gave us a "decent" snowfall hope this one pans out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 man,even last winter gave us a "decent" snowfall hope this one pans out I was excited for those 3" of snow. Snow only lasted 2 days before we soared into the mid 50's. This reminds me a lot like last year. Last year, on the 18th, we were in the 50's, cold front passed, had a couple of days in the 30's, a clipper system gives us a very light dusting of snow, then we get a mini snowstorm 2 days later. Sounds like what we may have this week, except with colder temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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