Medium Range-Long Range thread

[tombo82685]

Congrats Tombo well deserved, over the years your knowledge has gotten better and better. I wish i had your patience to learn like you did.

 

thanks i appreciate all the kind words. Lets just hope we can all cash in on a big winter storm for euro pbp's

[ravensrule]

thanks i appreciate all the kind words. Lets just hope we can all cash in on a big winter storm for euro pbp's

Yes i really miss those days, as sad as it is in the winter of 09-10 i used to get just as pumped up for your Euro PBP as i do for a Ravens playoff game. I really hope we have one storm this winter where i wait for your great PBP.

[tombo82685]

Ggem has a weaker further south wave which is mostly if not all frozen for the area except maybe south jerz

 

here is the hr 120 map of ggem

 

 

hr 126 

hr 132

[tombo82685]

Yes i really miss those days, as sad as it is in the winter of 09-10 i used to get just as pumped up for your Euro PBP as i do for a Ravens playoff game. I really hope we have one storm this winter where i wait for your great PBP.

 

if the cold stays, it certainly helps the chances. Those were some fun times.

[tombo82685]

this is certainly one reason why the models over the last day or two have gone colder in the long range. Before then remember most of the mjo's had it looping back into phase 6 pretty strongly. Now most of the major mjo forecast keep it in phase 7 with a tiny bit of a lopp into phase 6 then heading back towards phase 7. I believe HM and adam were on top of this pretty good. The roundy diagram continues to show the wave propagating into phase 8

 

gefs

 

ukmet

euro

euro ens

 

ggem

[chubbs]

Most of the GEFS are colder than the OP next tuesday.

[Mitchell Gaines]

this is certainly one reason why the models over the last day or two have gone colder in the long range. Before then remember most of the mjo's had it looping back into phase 6 pretty strongly. Now most of the major mjo forecast keep it in phase 7 with a tiny bit of a lopp into phase 6 then heading back towards phase 7. I believe HM and adam were on top of this pretty good. The roundy diagram continues to show the wave propagating into phase 8

 

gefs

 

ukmet

euro

euro ens

 

ggem

 

Yup, MJO a bigger player than a few weeks ago. 

[Mike.Ventrice]

I agree about the "weakening" and the potential noisy conflict on the RMM diagrams. The Pacific Jet is in the process of extending again but this time the East Asian Jet is a little more poleward than December. We also have a substantial h2 westerly anomaly throughout a good bit of the Tropical Latitudes with a La Nina-like upper low near/SE of Hawaii. All I'm suggesting is the h2 setup may somewhat halt the progression eastward causing this to "loop on the RMMs" for a bit before ultimately coming east. The ramifications of something like this is possibly a more turmoil, oscillating jet structure for the CONUS instead of a full blown PNA/cold outbreak that lasts consistently into February.

 

 

Yup, MJO a bigger player than a few weeks ago. 

 

The forecast loop in RMM phases 6 or 7 is consistently being forecasted at D7 through D14, which raises an eyebrow.  While I'm unsure whether this forecast will verify.. the forecasted MJO appears to be the response of noise and not of the actual true MJO. I am confident that the MJO will soon speed up into a Kelvin wave-like response as it radiates across the Western Hemisphere during the upcoming week.  The eastward radiating Kelvin-MJO signature often occurs once the MJO-convection moves east of the date-line (it is highlyt dependent on ENSO state). That being said, I'm expecting MJO convection back over the Indian Ocean between January 22-31, even if the real-time multivariate MJO phase space diagrams suggest otherwise.

[Mike.Ventrice]

The forecast loop in RMM phases 6 or 7 is consistently being forecasted at D7 through D14, which raises an eyebrow.  While I'm unsure whether this forecast will verify.. the forecasted MJO appears to be the response of noise and not of the actual true MJO. I am confident that the MJO will soon speed up into a Kelvin wave-like response as it radiates across the Western Hemisphere during the upcoming week.  The eastward radiating Kelvin-MJO signature often occurs once the MJO-convection moves east of the date-line (it is highlyt dependent on ENSO state). That being said, I'm expecting MJO convection back over the Indian Ocean between January 22-31, even if the real-time multivariate MJO phase space diagrams suggest otherwise.

 

Another thing to point out, if global models could accurately predict the MJO in week 2-3, we'd see much better medium range extra-tropical circulation predictions (don't hold me to this, but it seems logical).  Check out the verification for week 2 for this recent MJO event. All the models suggested one solution where reality had the true solution. Even though all the models hum the tune doesn't necessarily mean it is truth.

 

[tombo82685]

Euro misses the phase at day 9 on a coastal storm. Scoots off the se coast with precip up to delmarva

[NJwinter23]

Euro misses the phase at day 9 on a coastal storm. Scoots off the se coast with precip up to delmarva

 

no chance in hell of phasing into that southern shortwave with that buzzsaw to the north...if it tries to it will get crushed, notice the complete disconnect with the cold air in the south with that system on this run...too bad the euro doesnt go past day 10...we would have seen all out weather porn me thinks with the entire vortex roaring south into the upper midwest

[NJwinter23]

The forecast loop in RMM phases 6 or 7 is consistently being forecasted at D7 through D14, which raises an eyebrow.  While I'm unsure whether this forecast will verify.. the forecasted MJO appears to be the response of noise and not of the actual true MJO. I am confident that the MJO will soon speed up into a Kelvin wave-like response as it radiates across the Western Hemisphere during the upcoming week.  The eastward radiating Kelvin-MJO signature often occurs once the MJO-convection moves east of the date-line (it is highlyt dependent on ENSO state). That being said, I'm expecting MJO convection back over the Indian Ocean between January 22-31, even if the real-time multivariate MJO phase space diagrams suggest otherwise.

 

That soon eh?? Interesting..I assume you mean near Africa (phase 1-2 stuff) and not the phase 3-4 type stuff? If thats the case then maybe the cold pattern/+PNA spike were seeing next week does not relax in the 11-15.

[Mike.Ventrice]

That soon eh?? Interesting..I assume you mean near Africa (phase 1-2 stuff) and not the phase 3-4 type stuff? If thats the case then maybe the cold pattern/+PNA spike were seeing next week does not relax in the 11-15.

 

Yes, I meant eastern IO, so phase 1.

[chubbs]

no chance in hell of phasing into that southern shortwave with that buzzsaw to the north...if it tries to it will get crushed, notice the complete disconnect with the cold air in the south with that system on this run...too bad the euro doesnt go past day 10...we would have seen all out weather porn me thinks with the entire vortex roaring south into the upper midwest

 

Would be nice to see the next couple of days. Everything that is wrong with today's pattern has flipped.

[tombo82685]

no chance in hell of phasing into that southern shortwave with that buzzsaw to the north...if it tries to it will get crushed, notice the complete disconnect with the cold air in the south with that system on this run...too bad the euro doesnt go past day 10...we would have seen all out weather porn me thinks with the entire vortex roaring south into the upper midwest

 

Yea for the northern folk that would not have a chance unless that pv moves north some or a lobe off that pv spins around and tries to phase with it, but it would only then come north to a certain extent. Thats a good southern mid atl wintry setup assuming the cold can get down there. You can see how that pv just crushes any hope

 

 Post day 10 looks interesting as you stated. Another lobe of that pv is dropping down along with some southern stream disturbance spells some fun if it works out that way.

[NJwinter23]

Yes, I meant eastern IO, so phase 1.

 

so western IO* 

[tombo82685]

That really is a nice pattern being shown on the euro ens day 10. -ao, pos pna, east based -nao. You can almost see the euro ens picking up on that post day ten threat with that 2nd pv lobe diving south and raising the hgts along the east coast. 

 

[Mike.Ventrice]

so western IO* 

 

lol ugh yeah that is what I meant, sorry. Western IO

[tombo82685]

The forecast loop in RMM phases 6 or 7 is consistently being forecasted at D7 through D14, which raises an eyebrow.  While I'm unsure whether this forecast will verify.. the forecasted MJO appears to be the response of noise and not of the actual true MJO. I am confident that the MJO will soon speed up into a Kelvin wave-like response as it radiates across the Western Hemisphere during the upcoming week.  The eastward radiating Kelvin-MJO signature often occurs once the MJO-convection moves east of the date-line (it is highlyt dependent on ENSO state). That being said, I'm expecting MJO convection back over the Indian Ocean between January 22-31, even if the real-time multivariate MJO phase space diagrams suggest otherwise.

 

Could you elaborate on this? Basically are you saying that something else like a rossby wave or kelvin wave is mimicking the mjo which is cause the models to think its does a loop in phases 7-6?

[Rainshadow]

The forecast loop in RMM phases 6 or 7 is consistently being forecasted at D7 through D14, which raises an eyebrow.  While I'm unsure whether this forecast will verify.. the forecasted MJO appears to be the response of noise and not of the actual true MJO. I am confident that the MJO will soon speed up into a Kelvin wave-like response as it radiates across the Western Hemisphere during the upcoming week.  The eastward radiating Kelvin-MJO signature often occurs once the MJO-convection moves east of the date-line (it is highlyt dependent on ENSO state). That being said, I'm expecting MJO convection back over the Indian Ocean between January 22-31, even if the real-time multivariate MJO phase space diagrams suggest otherwise.

 

 

Since geographically we're in the same area when this process speeds, is this the reason that the confidence level off the CPC site with phase 7 is much lower than phases 4 thru 6 (which for DJF is greater than 95%)?

[pasnownut]

Well deserved!! Maybe we can get a bonified snowstorm to test your moderating skills.

 

Congrats Tom and may you bring lots of luck to the forum. 

 

Nut

[RowanBrandon]

18z GFS looks a little more interesting for the end of next week. Clipper is there.

[Heisy]

If EURO OP/Ens is correct I think it could set up for a period between Jan 24-28 where a KU is possible

[HM]

The forecast loop in RMM phases 6 or 7 is consistently being forecasted at D7 through D14, which raises an eyebrow.  While I'm unsure whether this forecast will verify.. the forecasted MJO appears to be the response of noise and not of the actual true MJO. I am confident that the MJO will soon speed up into a Kelvin wave-like response as it radiates across the Western Hemisphere during the upcoming week.  The eastward radiating Kelvin-MJO signature often occurs once the MJO-convection moves east of the date-line (it is highlyt dependent on ENSO state). That being said, I'm expecting MJO convection back over the Indian Ocean between January 22-31, even if the real-time multivariate MJO phase space diagrams suggest otherwise.

 

Okay, let's try this instead: I am in agreement about the forcing continuing eastward and I understand where we are currently with modeling. My concern is that it will only nudge the Hadley Cell / Upper low SE of Hawaii-NE PAC high eastward for about week before retreating back comfortably to its original position once the forcing shifts into the IO. At this point, the cold could keep digging more west with each shot, possibly allowing the SE ridge to resurface for a time. I could see a nasty -EPO / Arctic Blast at the end of the month directed into the C USA for sure and then possibly a follow-up in early Feb that hits the East Coast. But anyway, I was merely suggesting the loop, while likely noise and typical model issues, may be the NWP's way of suggesting this hadley/la nina-like feature in the E PAC may be enough to slow any disturbance. It won't be able to stop the eastward shift next week but it could make it more oscillating instead of persistent for the CONUS.

Another thing to point out, if global models could accurately predict the MJO in week 2-3, we'd see much better medium range extra-tropical circulation predictions (don't hold me to this, but it seems logical).  Check out the verification for week 2 for this recent MJO event. All the models suggested one solution where reality had the true solution. Even though all the models hum the tune doesn't necessarily mean it is truth.

I agree that accurately predicting the MJO and even solar parameters would significantly improve medium to long range forecasts.

[tombo82685]

rumor has it the weeklies are pretty darn cold, haven't seen them, but saw postings about it in other forums.

[Ellinwood]

rumor has it the weeklies are pretty darn cold, haven't seen them, but saw postings about it in other forums.

If by "pretty darn cold" you mean 0F to -2F anomalies in weeks 2-4, then yes.

[NaoPos]

If by "pretty darn cold" you mean 0F to -2F anomalies in weeks 2-4, then yes.

Guessing that this week will be +10ish, that's almost a -12 departure... That's cold!!

[famartin]

If by "pretty darn cold" you mean 0F to -2F anomalies in weeks 2-4, then yes.

 

its all relative

[phlwx]

Could of, but the green suits it since we have seen green grass pretty much all winter so far.

 

might be another fall line on north and west onset of wintry precip for next wednesday.

 

Congrats on getting mod.  At least you have an easy subforum to deal with.

[Bobby EPAWA]

Euro weeklies have the NE US in below normal temps for weeks 2, 3, and 4 due to a flip to a +PNA pattern which gets even more impressive as time goes on... also has an impressive -NAO/-AO combination.  Precip also goes to near and even above normal weeks 3 and 4, so as far as the weeklies are concerned, it's game on.  Third consecutive run showing this, so yes we can start to believe them. Consistency. Today's weeks 2 and 3 match the previous weeklies runs of weeks 3 and 4 almost to the letter.  I realize weeks 3 and 4 need to be taken with a grain of salt, but so far par for the course matching up to last week's at the same time stamp.