Atlantic Tropical Action 2013

[Subtropics]

I would be shocked if we don't get a landfalling major this year. 

[Kmlwx]

Subtropics,

 

Would you care to add insight like the others have in this thread? Your post is not particularly useful if you don't provide some other discussion about it. Look at all the great discussion above your post. Isn't asking too much I don't think! 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

15/6/1 I'm going with the trend for allot of action but a continuation of dry air and shear issues the MDR limiting quality. We haven't seen  a major change (massive ENSO switch as an example) to indiacte that things will be all that diffrent this season then the previous 2. Maybe a clear change will develope between now so anyones forcast is low confidence right now I just always like trends.

 

I agree with snowflake about the South Florida threat big time. If anywhere is well situated, prone and overdue wow is SF!  What would be killer in SF is if you have a Hugo type/size beast hit where Andrew did. As a Hugo going in south of Miami would have so much more ocean heat to work with you could hypothetically sustain a true cat 5. It would put all of Miami in the eye-wall and likely up to Palm Beach in a major wind and surge area. If I can think of a 500 billion dollar hurricane that's it!!

[Hailstorm]

I also think that Maine is overdue for a cyclone landfall sometime this year in 2013.

By the way, has the NHC released their post-season analysis for Hurricane Sandy?

[HurricaneJosh]

I also think that Maine is overdue for a cyclone landfall sometime this year in 2013.

By the way, has the NHC released their post-season analysis for Hurricane Sandy?

Not yet-- nor have they done Isaac. Important landfalling storms usually take a little longer. You can check here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2012atlan.shtml

[HurricaneJosh]

For context, here are all USA hurricane landfalls since 2000 (color-coded by intensity).  As you can see, there have been no majors outside of the big 2004-2005 burst:

 

2000 --

 

2001 --

 

2002 Lili - LA1 (963 mb/80 kt)

 

2003 Claudette - TX1 (979 mb/80 kt)

2003 Isabel - NC2, VA1 (957 mb/90 kt)

 

2004 Charley - FL4, SC1, NC1 (941 mb/130 kt)

2004 Gaston - SC1 (985 mb/65 kt)

2004 Frances - FL2 (960 mb/90 kt)

2004 Ivan - AL3, FL3 (946 mb/105 kt)

2004 Jeanne - FL3 (950 mb/105 kt)

 

2005 Cindy - LA1 (991 mb/65 kt)

2005 Dennis - FL3, AL1 (946 mb/105 kt)

2005 Katrina - FL1, LA3, MS3, AL1 (920 mb/110 kt)

2005 Rita - FL1, LA3, TX2 (937 mb/100 kt)

2005 Wilma - FL3 (950 mb/105 kt)

 

2006 --

 

2007 Humberto - TX1 (985 mb/80 kt)

      

2008 Dolly - TX1 (967 mb/75 kt)

2008 Gustav - LA2 (954 mb/90 kt)

2008 Ike - TX2, LA1 (950 mb/95 kt)

 

2009 --

 

2010 --

 

2011 Irene - NC1 (952 mb/75 kt)

 

2012 Isaac - LA1 (966 mb/70 kt)

[am19psu]

What was the last cat 4+ landfall? Bret? It's been so long I don't even remember.

[HurricaneJosh]

What was the last cat 4+ landfall? Bret? It's been so long I don't even remember.

 

You mean before Charley 2004?  It was Andrew 1992.  Bret 1999 was a Cat 3 (100 kt)-- it weakened before landfall.

[am19psu]

Duh. Yes that was my question, sorry. Brainfarted.

I know we run into small samples pretty quick here, but what is the historical return period on cat 4+ landfalls?

[HurricaneJosh]

Duh. Yes that was my question, sorry. Brainfarted.

I know we run into small samples pretty quick here, but what is the historical return period on cat 4+ landfalls?

Well, in the whole period (1851-2012), it's been around 1 every 7 years. I say "around" because 1) reanalysis will affect the numbers and 2) it's likely some of the 1800s storms were underestimated. (My tally of 23 unique landfalling Cat-4/5 hurricanes reflects not-yet-approved reanalysis intensities for the 1940s, and it discounts Audrey 1957, which will certainly be downgraded at least one category. Camille 1969 stays on the list because, even if it's downgraded, it will still likely be at least Cat 4.)

The return period is extremely variable. For example, the 1940s saw a rash of 4 Cat 4s hitting FL within just 5 years, whereas since 1969, there have been only 3 for the entire USA: Hugo 1989, Andrew 1992, and Charley 2004. So, in the last 43 years, there's been only 1 per 14 years or so-- about half the long-term average.

[am19psu]

Thanks. That's what I was thinking.

[Ed Lizard]

I like this way, way preseason version of this thread, when it is just tropical nerds like Josh and Bendy Tree Mod talking, and a few people like me, with more eclectic tastes, like Spring severe, or Northeast snowstorms of Biblical proportions, or SETX snow of any proportion (same thing, really) can read and learn.

 

 

Charley, the last Cat 4 landfall, and the best YouTube producing hurricane of all time, IMHO.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Josh, why is Sandy left off the 2012 list before reanalysis? Though we are in agreement with more noreaster esk characteristics i can verify at least cat 1 level wind damage here. ( as I posted in the past absolute tree damage in Andrew like swath paths) As it is assumed highest winds are likely un-sampled in most storms why leave off Sandy? Sandy did more wind/tree damage in my area then any historical legit cane. (38, 44, Donna and Gloria.) And I am far enough east to have experienced at least cat 1 winds in all those storms. Gloria is the only one I was around for but the tree damage was not on the same level. I have pics from Sandy of thousand yard swaths of 4 foot diameter old growth oaks and tulips (300 year old plus) completely leveled. Several houses that lost roofs in Long Beach and my life guard shack at Jones beach circa 1930 (it was a historical landmark and had survived every hurricane since)that also had its roof blown off. I am not talking surge but pure wind damage that caused said damage.

Regardless I am sooooooo interested in the NHC reanalysis!

[HurricaneJosh]

I like this way, way preseason version of this thread, when it is just tropical nerds like Josh and Bendy Tree Mod talking, and a few people like me, with more eclectic tastes, like Spring severe, or Northeast snowstorms of Biblical proportions, or SETX snow of any proportion (same thing, really) can read and learn.

 

 

Charley, the last Cat 4 landfall, and the best YouTube producing hurricane of all time, IMHO.

Well, thank you-- I am glad you enjoy the nerd talk.    And I agree, Charley produced the best tropical cyclone footage from anywhere.  Several chasers and even some civilians caught some spectacular moments.  Charley remains the gold standard for dramatic hurricane footage.

 

Josh, why is Sandy left off the 2012 list before reanalysis? Though we are in agreement with more noreaster esk characteristics i can verify at least cat 1 level wind damage here. ( as I posted in the past absolute tree damage in Andrew like swath paths) As it is assumed highest winds are likely un-sampled in most storms why leave off Sandy? Sandy did more wind/tree damage in my area then any historical legit cane. (38, 44, Donna and Gloria.) And I am far enough east to have experienced at least cat 1 winds in all those storms. Gloria is the only one I was around for but the tree damage was not on the same level. I have pics from Sandy of thousand yard swaths of 4 foot diameter old growth oaks and tulips (300 year old plus) completely leveled. Several houses that lost roofs in Long Beach and my life guard shack at Jones beach circa 1930 (it was a historical landmark and had survived every hurricane since)that also had its roof blown off. I am not talking surge but pure wind damage that caused said damage.

Regardless I am sooooooo interested in the NHC reanalysis!

Sandy won't be considered a hurricane landfall because of the structure-- not because the winds weren't strong enough.  No one doubts it produced hurricane winds at landfall-- in fact, the landfall advisory put the winds at 70 kt, which more than qualifies as a hurricane.  But when Sandy crossed the coast, it wasn't a tropical cyclone anymore-- it was essentially a nor'easter and frontal in nature.  While it did still seem to have semi-warm core, you'll notice that there was no eye, no eyewall, and no convection near the center, and the highest winds were not near the center but apparently over 100 mi away.  I chatted with one of the Specialists at the NHC recently and asked if there was a chance they'd call it a hurricane landfall in postanalysis, and he said no.

 

The weenie side of me wishes they would call it a hurricane landfall simply because the impacts were so huge-- but of course that wouldn't be very scientific to classify something as a hurricane simply based on impact.  

 

By the way, I'd love to see your pics of Sandy's wind damage.  I have a friend on Long Island-- where I grew up-- who also said he was surprised by the severity of the wind damage, but it was all trees.  He couldn't find any examples of structural damage, so I'd love to see yours.

[HurricaneJosh]

And just so Jorge doesn't feel left out-- and since it's the other big country that gets hit a lot-- here are all the Mexican hurricane landfalls since 2000 (with two-letter abbreviations for states: TS = Tamaulipas, VZ = Veracruz, YN = Yucatan, QR = Quintana Roo).  

 

There've been some really red-meat events in the past decade.  Notice that 2005 wasn't just a big year for the USA-- it also was for MX.  Notice also that 2001, 2006, and 2009 were real duds for the USA and MX (on the NATL side-- MX did have some hawt action on the EPAC side in 2006 and 2009).

 

2000 Keith - TS1 (980 mb/80 kt)

 

2001 --

 

2002 Isidore - YN3 (936 mb/110 kt)

 

2003 Erika - TS1 (986 mb/65 kt)

 

2004 --

 

2005 Emily - QR4, TS3 (955 mb/115 kt)

2005 Stan - VZ1 (977 mb/70 kt)

2005 Wilma - QR4 (927 mb/130 kt)

 

2006 --

 

2007 Dean - QR5, VZ2 (905 mb/150 kt)

2007 Lorenzo - VZ1 (993 mb/65 kt)

 

2008 --

 

2009 --

 

2010 Alex - TS2 (946 mb/95 kt)

2010 Karl - VZ3 (976 mb/100 kt)

 

2011 --

 

2012 Baby Ernie - QR2 (973 mb/85 kt)

 

[bluewave]

Well, thank you-- I am glad you enjoy the nerd talk.    And I agree, Charley produced the best tropical cyclone footage from anywhere.  Several chasers and even some civilians caught some spectacular moments.  Charley remains the gold standard for dramatic hurricane footage.

 

Sandy won't be considered a hurricane landfall because of the structure-- not because the winds weren't strong enough.  No one doubts it produced hurricane winds at landfall-- in fact, the landfall advisory put the winds at 70 kt, which more than qualifies as a hurricane.  But when Sandy crossed the coast, it wasn't a tropical cyclone anymore-- it was essentially a nor'easter and frontal in nature.  While it did still seem to have semi-warm core, you'll notice that there was no eye, no eyewall, and no convection near the center, and the highest winds were not near the center but apparently over 100 mi away.  I chatted with one of the Specialists at the NHC recently and asked if there was a chance they'd call it a hurricane landfall in postanalysis, and he said no.

 

The weenie side of me wishes they would call it a hurricane landfall simply because the impacts were so huge-- but of course that wouldn't be very scientific to classify something as a hurricane simply based on impact.  

 

By the way, I'd love to see your pics of Sandy's wind damage.  I have a friend on Long Island-- where I grew up-- who also said he was surprised by the severity of the wind damage, but it was all trees.  He couldn't find any examples of structural damage, so I'd love to see yours.

 

An apartment complex in Long Beach had a section of their roof blown off. My guess is that the winds were

probably locally enhanced in that spot by the channeling of the winds around nearby 8-9 floor buildings.

 

 

[Mike.Ventrice]

Well, thank you-- I am glad you enjoy the nerd talk.    And I agree, Charley produced the best tropical cyclone footage from anywhere.  Several chasers and even some civilians caught some spectacular moments.  Charley remains the gold standard for dramatic hurricane footage.

 

Sandy won't be considered a hurricane landfall because of the structure-- not because the winds weren't strong enough.  No one doubts it produced hurricane winds at landfall-- in fact, the landfall advisory put the winds at 70 kt, which more than qualifies as a hurricane.  But when Sandy crossed the coast, it wasn't a tropical cyclone anymore-- it was essentially a nor'easter and frontal in nature.  While it did still seem to have semi-warm core, you'll notice that there was no eye, no eyewall, and no convection near the center, and the highest winds were not near the center but apparently over 100 mi away.  I chatted with one of the Specialists at the NHC recently and asked if there was a chance they'd call it a hurricane landfall in postanalysis, and he said no.

 

The weenie side of me wishes they would call it a hurricane landfall simply because the impacts were so huge-- but of course that wouldn't be very scientific to classify something as a hurricane simply based on impact.  

 

By the way, I'd love to see your pics of Sandy's wind damage.  I have a friend on Long Island-- where I grew up-- who also said he was surprised by the severity of the wind damage, but it was all trees.  He couldn't find any examples of structural damage, so I'd love to see yours.

 

 

An apartment complex in Long Beach had a section of their roof blown off. My guess is that the winds were

probably locally enhanced in that spot by the channeling of the winds around nearby 8-9 floor buildings.

 

 

Screen shot 2013-01-06 at 10.17.17 AM.png

 

 

As a native to Patchogue, the number of trees down and storm surge near the great south bay was something I've never seen my 20+ years of living there. I have friends who lost their home from the flooding contaminated with raw sewage near the bay.  My brother is a NYPD officer at Breezy Point.. I was on the phone with him when the fires broke out there... Just a devistating event! From everyone I spoke to in Patchogue, no one took the storm that seriously becuase of how they prepared for Irene but never really felt the impact. I wonder if there was never an Irene, how much more serious folks would have taken this storm.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

An apartment complex in Long Beach had a section of their roof blown off. My guess is that the winds were

probably locally enhanced in that spot by the channeling of the winds around nearby 8-9 floor buildings.

 

 

Screen shot 2013-01-06 at 10.17.17 AM.png

 

One of my examples! Now use the tornado scale for damage and you're in the 100mph+ f1 range for gusts and likely well over 75 sustained. Ill post my other pics of f1+ level damage when I have a chance!

 

Ohh and of course the industrial building in Island Park that had its roof peeled off!

[HurricaneJosh]

An apartment complex in Long Beach had a section of their roof blown off. My guess is that the winds were

probably locally enhanced in that spot by the channeling of the winds around nearby 8-9 floor buildings.

Cool shot-- thanks, Chris!

 

As a native to Patchogue, the number of trees down and storm surge near the great south bay was something I've never seen my 20+ years of living there. I have friends who lost their home from the flooding contaminated with raw sewage near the bay.  My brother is a NYPD officer at Breezy Point.. I was on the phone with him when the fires broke out there... Just a devistating event! From everyone I spoke to in Patchogue, no one took the storm that seriously becuase of how they prepared for Irene but never really felt the impact. I wonder if there was never an Irene, how much more serious folks would have taken this storm.

Yeah, I grew up on Long Island and was a teenager during Gloria, and my best friend-- who still lives on the Island-- said the wind damage seemed worse than Gloria.  He said certain neighborhoods in Huntington had tremendous tree loss.  I definitely think Irene faked people out.  I was in Island Park during Irene, and while the surge was pretty impressive, the winds were really lame.  I am sure it was in peoples' heads as Sandy approached.

 

One of my examples! Now use the tornado scale for damage and you're in the 100mph+ f1 range for gusts and likely well over 75 sustained. Ill post my other pics of f1+ level damage when I have a chance!

 

Ohh and of course the industrial building in Island Park that had its roof peeled off!

Be careful Re: wind estimates.  A roof can come off in sustained winds well under hurricane force, especially if the winds are gusty. Peak gusts across Long Island were definitely well over hurricane force, but I'm not sure about sustained winds.  The reliable stations in the area (EWR, JFK, LGA, ISP) all had hurricane gusts (as high as 78 kt at ISP) but sustained winds were mostly in the 40-50-kt range, if I remember correctly.  That means the winds had a gusty, up-and-down quality.  A hurricane's area of maximum winds is usually very small, so you usually can't rely on surface obs to verify the highest winds-- however, Sandy no longer had a hurricane structure and the wind max was apparently spread over a large area and well-sampled-- so in this instance I feel the station obs might be pretty representative.  Anyhoo, sustained winds of 50 kt are very strong-- a lot of people don't realize.

 

P.S.  The peak gust at ISP during Gloria was 73 kt, so Sandy out-performed Gloria at that station-- however, I believe portions of the S Shore had much higher gusts in Gloria-- probably over 100 kt-- so I don't think Sandy's winds were actually higher, just better sampled.

[phlwx]

If the Azores has as an active tropical year as the US again this year I'm pretty sure Josh, and not the media, would be the one to go nuclear.

[HurricaneJosh]

If the Azores has as an active tropical year as the US again this year I'm pretty sure Josh, and not the media, would be the one to go nuclear.

That would be an accurate and well-modeled prediction.  

[Mike.Ventrice]

Josh, why is Sandy left off the 2012 list before reanalysis? Though we are in agreement with more noreaster esk characteristics i can verify at least cat 1 level wind damage here. ( as I posted in the past absolute tree damage in Andrew like swath paths) As it is assumed highest winds are likely un-sampled in most storms why leave off Sandy? Sandy did more wind/tree damage in my area then any historical legit cane. (38, 44, Donna and Gloria.) And I am far enough east to have experienced at least cat 1 winds in all those storms. Gloria is the only one I was around for but the tree damage was not on the same level. I have pics from Sandy of thousand yard swaths of 4 foot diameter old growth oaks and tulips (300 year old plus) completely leveled. Several houses that lost roofs in Long Beach and my life guard shack at Jones beach circa 1930 (it was a historical landmark and had survived every hurricane since)that also had its roof blown off. I am not talking surge but pure wind damage that caused said damage.

Regardless I am sooooooo interested in the NHC reanalysis!

 

I was asked today by one of NHC's hurricane specialists to create a figure for Sandy's post tropical cyclone report with regards to the genesis of Sandy and the MJO.  Whether or not he chooses to include this figure, I thought it'd be nice to share with the forum. Also, it might explain why NHC hasn't released Sandy's report yet.

 

Shading is unfiltered VP200 anomalies (negative VP200 anomalies represent upper-level mass divergence). Contours are MJO filtered VP200 anomalies, where the dashed contours are negative MJO filtered VP200 anomalies, or the convectively active phase of the MJO.  Contours start at 1 standard deviation and are in 0.5 standard deviation increments.  A 2 sigma MJO event passed over the Western Hemisphere leading to the genesis of Sandy, suggesting that the MJO likely played a role in the genesis of Sandy.

 

[HurricaneJosh]

I was asked today by one of NHC's hurricane specialists to create a figure for Sandy's post tropical cyclone report with regards to the genesis of Sandy and the MJO.  Whether or not he chooses to include this figure, I thought it'd be nice to share with the forum. Also, it might explain why NHC hasn't released Sandy's report yet.

 

Don't worry, I am sure you're not the reason the report is not out yet.  The reports Re: big events like Sandy always take a bit longer-- there's so much data to go through and analyze.

 

Cool that they asked you to weigh in!     They used my surface data in the Ernesto postanalysis and I was really psyched about it-- to contribute to the science.

[Mike.Ventrice]

Don't worry, I am sure you're not the reason the report is not out yet.  The reports Re: big events like Sandy always take a bit longer-- there's so much data to go through and analyze.

 

Cool that they asked you to weigh in!     They used my surface data in the Ernesto postanalysis and I was really psyched about it-- to contribute to the science.

 

Of course, I know I'm not the reason! I was just sharing some info Very cool about Ernesto- it's always nice to lend to a hand

[HurricaneJosh]

Of course, I know I'm not the reason! I was just sharing some info Very cool about Ernesto- it's always nice to lend to a hand

 

Yeah, they actually upped the landfall intensity to 85 kt, partly because of my air-pressure data near the eye-- check it out: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL052012_Ernesto.pdf

 

I was really excited about it-- got total nerd thrillz.

 

P.S.  What are your thoughts Re: the upcoming season, if you don't mind me asking?

[Mike.Ventrice]

Yeah, they actually upped the landfall intensity to 85 kt, partly because of my air-pressure data near the eye-- check it out: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL052012_Ernesto.pdf

 

I was really excited about it-- got total nerd thrillz.

 

P.S.  What are your thoughts Re: the upcoming season, if you don't mind me asking?

 

Very cool! I have never gone storm chasing... something I've always wanted to do (Hurricanes or tornadoes) so I'm envious!

 

Ah I have to brush up on my seasonal predictions... My knowledge lies in intraseasonal variabilty of Atlantic TCs. I'm keen on what happens in the East Pacific with the strong MJO over the Pacific... This MJO event has considerable amplitude and likely will initiate a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave that could get things toasty in the East Pac. If that happens, the upcoming tropical cyclone season would likely be less than what we've been observing these past few years. It all depends on if the atmosphere responds to the ocean, of course!

[Ellinwood]

Sandy won't be considered a hurricane landfall because of the structure-- not because the winds weren't strong enough.  No one doubts it produced hurricane winds at landfall-- in fact, the landfall advisory put the winds at 70 kt, which more than qualifies as a hurricane.  But when Sandy crossed the coast, it wasn't a tropical cyclone anymore-- it was essentially a nor'easter and frontal in nature.  While it did still seem to have semi-warm core, you'll notice that there was no eye, no eyewall, and no convection near the center, and the highest winds were not near the center but apparently over 100 mi away.  I chatted with one of the Specialists at the NHC recently and asked if there was a chance they'd call it a hurricane landfall in postanalysis, and he said no.

 

The weenie side of me wishes they would call it a hurricane landfall simply because the impacts were so huge-- but of course that wouldn't be very scientific to classify something as a hurricane simply based on impact.  

Not that my obs aren't obvious already, but I was in Atlantic City when the CoC came ashore and it was far from spectacular. I think winds were gusting to 30-40 mph a little ahead of the CoC. The stuff I experienced further north around Asbury Park earlier that day was much more intense, with gusts around 75 mph (estimated).

[HurricaneJosh]

Very cool! I have never gone storm chasing... something I've always wanted to do (Hurricanes or tornadoes) so I'm envious!

 

Ah I have to brush up on my seasonal predictions... My knowledge lies in intraseasonal variabilty of Atlantic TCs. I'm keen on what happens in the East Pacific with the strong MJO over the Pacific... This MJO event has considerable amplitude and likely will initiate a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave that could get things toasty in the East Pac. If that happens, the upcoming tropical cyclone season would likely be less than what we've been observing these past few years. It all depends on if the atmosphere responds to the ocean, of course!

 

OK, gotcha.  Well, if we have an El Nino, there's always the EPAC season, which can get pretty sexy on El Nino years.    Sorry to put you on the spot for a prediction like that.

 

Not that my obs aren't obvious already, but I was in Atlantic City when the CoC came ashore and it was far from spectacular. I think winds were gusting to 30-40 mph a little ahead of the CoC. The stuff I experienced further north around Asbury Park earlier that day was much more intense, with gusts around 75 mph (estimated).

 

Oh, wow-- I didn't know you were right where the center came ashore.  Those obs are interesting, actually, and it fits what I've seen in the data.  Like, the wind data at ACY weren't anything to write home about, whereas N NJ, NYC, and LI got pretty raked.  So, yeah, those highest winds just seemed to be very far-removed from the center.

 

Tell me, as the center passed though, did you notice any kind of calming, or a sharp increase in winds after the wind shifted, or any other final vestiges of a tropical eye?  You're actually the first person I've interacted with who was where the cente came ashore, and I've been curious about all this.

[Ellinwood]

Oh, wow-- I didn't know you were right where the center came ashore.  Those obs are interesting, actually, and it fits what I've seen in the data.  Like, the wind data at ACY weren't anything to write home about, whereas N NJ, NYC, and LI got pretty raked.  So, yeah, those highest winds just seemed to be very far-removed from the center.

 

Tell me, as the center passed though, did you notice any kind of calming, or a sharp increase in winds after the wind shifted, or any other final vestiges of a tropical eye?  You're actually the first person I've interacted with who was where the center came ashore, and I've been curious about all this.

There was a bit of a calming as the center came ashore, but it was much more gradual than what you'd normally get with a fully tropical system. It never really did get that calm. We (Jason Foster and I) got into town around 5:30-6:00pm and stayed until the center came ashore. We started to work west back towards home before the back edge came ashore EDIT: Not quite... see next post! (it was getting quite dark at this point), but I imagine that it was very similar. There was at least one other chaser (@stratowx on Twitter) who was south of us around Cape May, so he might be able to provide additional input.

[Ellinwood]

I double-checked my GPS log... we arrived in Atlantic City at 5:45pm and left at 6:50pm, so we weren't in ACY for the landfall (which was around 8:00pm), but the center did pass over us as we headed west, which is when I noticed the calmer conditions. Below, I have the decoded METAR for Atlantic City with the time, pressure (in inches), wind direction, sustained winds and gusts. Below the decoded obs are the full METAR reports. Looking back, we probably should have stayed, but the road out was covered in water and we wanted to make sure we could make it out without getting stuck for awhile. Jason's Jeep had plenty of clearance, but the water was only a few inches lower than my Camry's door.

5:41 PM 28.14 in 35.7 mph 49.5 mph

SPECI KACY 292141Z AUTO 02031G43KT 2SM BR OVC009 17/16 A2814 RMK AO2 PK WND 03056/2057 RAB23E33 CIG 007V013 P0001 TSNO

5:54 PM 31.07 in NNE 31.1 mph 55.2 mph

METAR KACY 292154Z AUTO 03027G48KT 1 3/4SM BR OVC009 17/16 A2811 RMK AO2 PK WND 03056/2057 RAB23E33 PRESFR SLP519 P0003 T01720161 TSNO

6:07 PM 28.09 in NNE 34.5 mph 47.2 mph

SPECI KACY 292207Z AUTO 02030G41KT 2SM BR OVC007 17/16 A2809 RMK AO2 PK WND 02041/2204 PRESFR P0001 TSNO

6:16 PM 28.07 in North 29.9 mph 49.5 mph

SPECI KACY 292216Z AUTO 01026G43KT 1 1/2SM BR OVC007 17/16 A2807 RMK AO2 PK WND 36043/2210 PRESFR P0001 TSNO

6:43 PM 28.01 in North 29.9 mph 48.3 mph

SPECI KACY 292243Z AUTO 01026G42KT 2SM BR OVC009 17/16 A2801 RMK AO2 PK WND 02043/2221 PRESFR P0004 TSNO

6:54 PM 28.01 in NNE 34.5 mph 49.5 mph

METAR KACY 292254Z AUTO 02030G43KT 2SM BR OVC007 17/16 A2801 RMK AO2 PK WND 01043/2247 SLP483 P0004 T01670156 TSNO

7:09 PM 28.02 in NE 25.3 mph 40.3 mph

SPECI KACY 292309Z AUTO 04022G35KT 3SM -RA BR OVC007 16/15 A2802 RMK AO2 PK WND 03035/2308 RAB01 P0000 TSNO

7:25 PM 28.02 in NNE 23.0 mph 33.4 mph

SPECI KACY 292325Z AUTO 02020G29KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR OVC007 15/14 A2802 RMK AO2 PK WND 03035/2308 RAB01 P0000 TSNO

7:54 PM 28.01 in North 9.2 mph 21.9 mph

METAR KACY 292354Z AUTO 35008G19KT 1 3/4SM BR OVC005 14/14 A2801 RMK AO2 PK WND 03035/2308 RAB01E38 SLP485 P0001 60141 T01440139 10172 20144 55054 TSNO

8:32 PM 28.09 in SSW 15.0 mph 23.0 mph

SPECI KACY 300032Z AUTO 21013G20KT 2SM -RA BR BKN005 BKN009 OVC013 14/14 A2809 RMK AO2 WSHFT 0013 RAB2358 PRESRR P0005 TSNO

8:44 PM 28.14 in South 12.7 mph 21.9 mph

SPECI KACY 300044Z AUTO 17011G19KT 3SM -RA BR BKN005 OVC018 14/14 A2814 RMK AO2 WSHFT 0013 RAB2358 PRESRR P0006 TSNO

8:54 PM 31.13 in South 10.4 mph -

METAR KACY 300054Z AUTO 17009KT 8SM BKN005 BKN011 OVC024 14/14 A2817 RMK AO2 WSHFT 0013 RAB2358E54 PRESRR SLP539 P0006 T01440139 TSNO

9:41 PM 28.37 in South 34.5 mph 56.4 mph

SPECI KACY 300141Z AUTO 17030G49KT 1 3/4SM BR OVC007 12/10 A2837 RMK AO2 PK WND 16049/0138 PRESRR TSNO

9:54 PM 28.43 in South 29.9 mph 51.8 mph

METAR KACY 300154Z AUTO 17026G45KT 2SM BR BKN007 OVC012 11/10 A2843 RMK AO2 PK WND 16049/0138 PRESRR SLP626 P0003 T01110100 TSNO

Interesting to note that the pressure stayed fairly stable around 948-949 mb between the 6:43pm and 7:54pm obs, which was before the actual wind shift.