A-L-E-K Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 DTW into SSC land should do well but you have to imagine the defo band is at its most dynamic right now (and earlier) and should lose some punch as the coastal transfer picks up. Either way, everything looks on track. Well forecasted storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 0947 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 E SWITZ CITY 39.03N 87.00W 12/26/2012 M12.0 INCH GREENE IN CO-OP OBSERVER REPORTED BY RIVER OBSERVER AT ELLISTON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Remember folks to vote Toronto Blizzard for this year's weenie of the year! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 NAM cut back on qpf, but that was expected. Still well over 0.75" and still showing the more northerly intruding trowal. It's basically going to come down to how that trowal sets up. If it simply trains over itself on a CLE-BGM line like the GFS and GEM shows, then it'll be much drier up here, probably 2-4". If it can gain latitude like what the EURO and NAM are doing, then 6-9" is possible. I'm covering my ass and sticking with 3-7". Final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I drove from Toledo to Cleveland so I could see more snow with this storm. I had the invite to stay with my relatives for later in the week anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 NAM cut back on qpf, but that was expected. Still well over 0.75" and still showing the more northerly intruding trowal. It's basically going to come down to how that trowal sets up. If it simply trains over itself on a CLE-BGM line like the GFS and GEM shows, then it'll be much drier up here, probably 2-4". If it can gain latitude like what the EURO and NAM are doing, then 6-9" is possible. I'm covering my ass and sticking with 3-7". Final call. 7" is more likely than 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 DTW into SSC land should do well but you have to imagine the defo band is at its most dynamic right now (and earlier) and should lose some punch as the coastal transfer picks up. Either way, everything looks on track. Well forecasted storm. Primary is so far maintaining itself (in sc/se KY), but the best 3 hour pres. falls indicating that might be short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 LAF is maintaining the vis requirement for a blizzard for an hour so far... just need to crank up the winds a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Better returns backing their way in here. Intensity ramping up. 10:00am ob below. METAR KLAF 261454Z 02015G23KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV007 M02/M03 A2984 RMK AO2 SLP111 P0005 60007 T10221033 56013 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 7" is more likely than 3" Agreed. Sticking with my 6-10" call for Toronto, though 6-8" more likely than 8-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 From LMK: Reports from the snow areas in our far northwest reveal that Portersville, IN (Dubois Co) had 6 inches of snow with a water equivalent of 0.96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Better returns backing their way in here. Intensity ramping up. 10:00am ob below. METAR KLAF 261454Z 02015G23KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV007 M02/M03 A2984 RMK AO2 SLP111 P0005 60007 T10221033 56013 $ Nice to hear things are getting cranking. Returns aren't as pristine up your way compared to around Indy so I was a bit worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Nice to hear things are getting cranking. Returns aren't as pristine up your way compared to around Indy so I was a bit worried. It's efficient, even with the lesser look up this way. Needless to say, better returns are producing/real. Though, sort of a brick wall at the county line, from getting better DBZ's in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I drove from Toledo to Cleveland so I could see more snow with this storm. I had the invite to stay with my relatives for later in the week anyway. Good luck! I'm amazed at how downtown Cleveland is surprisingly busy for a normal weak after Christmas business day. Things should get bad here after lunch. It's comical how many people think that the storm is going to miss here (after last week's partial bust and the big November bust not too surprising). The evening commute will be hell and despite the warnings people will still be caught offguard, especially the coastal folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Wow, 3" last hour at IND...considering they were at 4" at 9:00 am. 7" storm total. 1007 AM HEAVY SNOW INDIANAPOLIS INT`L AIRP 39.72N 86.29W 12/26/2012 M7.0 INCH MARION IN OFFICIAL NWS OBS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Just started lightly snowing here. Looking at the TDWR at DTW, it looks like a band of light snow is now moving through downriver Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'm sticking to my higher end call for Toronto. I'll state a range from 22-25cm. Around 16cm for Daff in Windsor! Band trying to creep into Lake and Porter Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Getting excited about the new convection blowing up over southern Ohio. By the time this moves into our area we should be all snow. If it is all snow we will see the snow pile up quick! Once Newark goes over to all snow I think that is the trend of the rain snow line dropping back southeast. Meanwhile, my trees are starting to get a bit heavy from the freezing rain/sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Wow, 3" last hour at IND...considering they were at 4" at 9:00 am. 7" storm total. 1007 AM HEAVY SNOW INDIANAPOLIS INT`L AIRP 39.72N 86.29W 12/26/2012 M7.0 INCH MARION IN OFFICIAL NWS OBS Awesome. I was worried these rates wouldn't come to fruition. Hopefully a good sign for 2"+ / hour rates upstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Wow, 3" last hour at IND...considering they were at 4" at 9:00 am. 7" storm total.1007 AM HEAVY SNOW INDIANAPOLIS INT`L AIRP 39.72N 86.29W 12/26/2012 M7.0 INCH MARION IN OFFICIAL NWS OBS Talking to some cops, probably 1-2" here. Haven't been able to get outside yet. Sent from my iPad HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'm sticking to my higher end call for Toronto. I'll state a range from 22-25cm. Around 16cm for Daff in Windsor! Band trying to creep into Lake and Porter Co. You guys pass around these pity forecasts like you're passing around the eggnog. It's been rough but if I get half of that I'm on cloud 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Hard to tell from the cruddy b/w graphics, but the RGEM may have tacked on a mm or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 You guys pass around these pity forecasts like you're passing around the eggnog. It's been rough but if I get half of that I'm on cloud 9. it's hard to look at national sat/radar trends and see how this turns into a dud for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 You guys pass around these pity forecasts like you're passing around the eggnog. It's been rough but if I get half of that I'm on cloud 9. Model consensus seems to be 0.60-0.75", no? Not sure why you're low balling your call... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 it's hard to look at national sat/radar trends and see how this turns into a dud for you Ma nature usually does backflips here to find a way. But I agree, if dud means 2" or so, that'll be hard to do this time, even for her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Model consensus seems to be 0.60-0.75", no? Not sure why you're low balling your call... multi-year futility runs do weird things to people. not gonna lie, i'd probably chuckle if yyz manages to snatch another defeat from the jaws of victory...but yeah, the streak is going down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Ugh.... why must all snowstorms come through here in the late late night/early early morning.... cant we ever get something that starts in daylight around here... didn't think so... yeah measuring this sucker isn't gonna happen, the wind has blown it around so much, but lowballing it I'd say at least 6"... I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Model consensus seems to be 0.60-0.75", no? Not sure why you're low balling your call... GFS and RGEM are below 1/2 inch. A lot of the synoptics are suspect and we're threading a needle with this trowal. Considering Environment Canada is calling for 2-4", I think I'm being quite generous with my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 You guys pass around these pity forecasts like you're passing around the eggnog. It's been rough but if I get half of that I'm on cloud 9. What's the forecasted temperatures tonight during the snow? Maybe you can pull off a higher snow ratio... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'm surprised that Environment Canada hasn't issued any sort of watch for Toronto given the potential is at least there for 6". When you consider that toronto hasn't seen anything over 2" in a single snowfall for two years, youd think they'd want to at least alert people to the possibility. There's something to be said for Canadians being a lot more hesitant than our neighbours to the south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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