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12/26-12/28 Potential Snow Threat

CooL

By CooL,
in New York City Metro

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rgwp96

rgwp96

Posted
Posted

I typed the following and posted this on my blog, prior to viewing the snowfall map that is posted on Accuweather for the 0z Euro. The snowfall map for the Euro on Accuweather is EXACTLY as I stated the following on my blog, and the map there was posted only after I typed and posted the following....The European model is not budging one bit, so neither am I, in fact, I really concerned that this could be a tremendous quick hit type of snowstorm, where there could be EXTREMELY heavy snow falling over a rather short period of time that has the potential to drop up to a foot of snow in only about 6 hours. This would mean near blizzard conditions in many areas if this really occurs as I believe it may in our area tomorrow night. The heavy snow should fall basically from late afternoon through around midnight or so. I think the mistake that is being made by the National Weather Service and many of the other news outlets is that the temperatures will warm up quickly over night, but this should be AFTER the precipitation has lightened up and is basically over. Yes, it will likely end as some drizzle or light rain, but prior to that, I strongly believe the EXTREMELY heavy precipitation rates will keep the atmosphere cold enough for snow in most areas of Northern New Jersey, with the only exclusion being the city areas such as Newark, and possibly north through Eastern sections of Bergen County and Hudson County, close to the Hudson River, where temperatures may be just warm enough to turn the snow to rain after a couple of inches falls. In fact, down by Newark, there may be very little if any snow, but as you head west and go up the hills into areas such as West Orange and Livingston, I can easily picture 6-12 inches. So to try and draw a line of what I am thinking, basically I believe that Eastern Essex County, Hudson County, and Eastern Bergen County will likely get 3-6 inches, except 1-3 inches in the city locations and right along the Hudson River, and Western Essex County, Southern Passaic County, Western Bergen County, Southeastern Morris County and Warren Counties will receive 6-12 inches, and Sussex and Northern Passaic Counties should receive 12-18 inches. I believe this to be a very dangerous situation for anyone considering traveling tomorrow night and I would caution against being on the roads tomorrow late in the afternoon or at night. To reiterate, I believe the National Weather Service and the news outlets are drastically underestimating the heavy snow potential with the storm, and I can easily picture many areas getting nearly a foot of snow in only about a 6 hour time period late in the day tomorrow. I strongly believe they are misreading this situation and that the warm air will not move into our area until after the precipitation is basically finished.

Sorry to say u are going to be way off but good luck lol

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West Milford Highlander

West Milford Highlander

Posted
Posted

I typed the following and posted this on my blog, prior to viewing the snowfall map that is posted on Accuweather for the 0z Euro. The snowfall map for the Euro on Accuweather is EXACTLY as I stated the following on my blog, and the map there was posted only after I typed and posted the following....The European model is not budging one bit, so neither am I, in fact, I really concerned that this could be a tremendous quick hit type of snowstorm, where there could be EXTREMELY heavy snow falling over a rather short period of time that has the potential to drop up to a foot of snow in only about 6 hours. This would mean near blizzard conditions in many areas if this really occurs as I believe it may in our area tomorrow night. The heavy snow should fall basically from late afternoon through around midnight or so. I think the mistake that is being made by the National Weather Service and many of the other news outlets is that the temperatures will warm up quickly over night, but this should be AFTER the precipitation has lightened up and is basically over. Yes, it will likely end as some drizzle or light rain, but prior to that, I strongly believe the EXTREMELY heavy precipitation rates will keep the atmosphere cold enough for snow in most areas of Northern New Jersey, with the only exclusion being the city areas such as Newark, and possibly north through Eastern sections of Bergen County and Hudson County, close to the Hudson River, where temperatures may be just warm enough to turn the snow to rain after a couple of inches falls. In fact, down by Newark, there may be very little if any snow, but as you head west and go up the hills into areas such as West Orange and Livingston, I can easily picture 6-12 inches. So to try and draw a line of what I am thinking, basically I believe that Eastern Essex County, Hudson County, and Eastern Bergen County will likely get 3-6 inches, except 1-3 inches in the city locations and right along the Hudson River, and Western Essex County, Southern Passaic County, Western Bergen County, Southeastern Morris County and Warren Counties will receive 6-12 inches, and Sussex and Northern Passaic Counties should receive 12-18 inches. I believe this to be a very dangerous situation for anyone considering traveling tomorrow night and I would caution against being on the roads tomorrow late in the afternoon or at night. To reiterate, I believe the National Weather Service and the news outlets are drastically underestimating the heavy snow potential with the storm, and I can easily picture many areas getting nearly a foot of snow in only about a 6 hour time period late in the day tomorrow. I strongly believe they are misreading this situation and that the warm air will not move into our area until after the precipitation is basically finished.

NWS calling for 3-4 up here before changeover. Inches not feet. Hopefully you're right.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Upton now has a mix to start for the nyc metro!! 27 with dew of 21 in western li

Already colder than models thought on the coast by 5 degrees or so. So will make a big difference on the front end before 850s come up. Snow on radar in south n j 850s further south than forecasted so far , will show its head during the first few hrs of heavy precip even into city

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Ericjcrash

Ericjcrash

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Already colder than models thought on the coast by 5 degrees or so. So will make a big difference on the front end before 850s come up. Snow on radar in south n j 850s further south than forecasted so far , will show its head during the first few hrs of heavy precip even into city

Exactly, major uh oh, 28/23 in a NYC. Look off the coast of OBX wind Circ already. uh oh.

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Jefflaw77

Jefflaw77

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Exactly, major uh oh, 28/23 in a NYC. Look off the coast of OBX wind Circ already. uh oh.

Is this transferring to the coast already?

if this thing tranfers quicker and goes slightly east and south of where it's forecast, i'd be pretty concerned.. im trying to look at some vd 2007 maps and to my untrained eye it does look some what familiar...

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Radders

Radders

Posted
Posted

It's amazing to me how different the local NWS offices can vary in their forecasts. OKX has a snow map which shows a widespread 4+" throughout Orange and Putnam counties. ALY, meanwhile, has 1-2" painted across most of Dutchess county. Will be really interesting to see how this all pans out.

Agreed, NWS OKX and ALY are a world apart.. I am not sure what to make of it, but I would not be surprised if Southern Dutchess Co sees 4-6"

22/20 here, so plenty of cold in place...

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hudsonvalley21

hudsonvalley21

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It's amazing to me how different the local NWS offices can vary in their forecasts. OKX has a snow map which shows a widespread 4+" throughout Orange and Putnam counties. ALY, meanwhile, has 1-2" painted across most of Dutchess county. Will be really interesting to see how this all pans out.

And within the OKX forcast area, up here in Orange county the forcast is for sustained winds at 20-24 with gusts up to 45 for tonite with no advisories for winds. Only 1 mile off the advisory threshold for gusts.

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH...

OR GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.

OKX has gusts up to 46 in Putnam county forcast area with no advisories posted.

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rgwp96

rgwp96

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Posted

It's amazing to me how different the local NWS offices can vary in their forecasts. OKX has a snow map which shows a widespread 4+" throughout Orange and Putnam counties. ALY, meanwhile, has 1-2" painted across most of Dutchess county. Will be really interesting to see how this all pans out.

U think that is bad, mt holly has me as less than 1 but 20 feet away is western Passaic and have them as 3-5 lol. I live right on the border of the two counties , both covered by different nws

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