Predict the min SLP of Sandy/hybrid!

[Jmister]

Models as of 06z Friday 10/26 predict the minimum pressure from 951 on the GFS, to 932 on the GFDL and everywhere in between! What do you think the minimum SLP will be?

[tornadotony]

With the amount of baroclinic energy off which Sandy will be feeding and with its pressure holding steady near 970mb even though it's in quite a hostle environment, my thinking is currently mid-upper 940s for the minimum pressure.

[Mallow]

Something like 948mb

[WeatherNC]

952.3 Surf City NJ

Edit: In or near (take the under, upper 940's)

[andyhb]

Went with 950-959 although I think 945-955 would be my actual category (especially considering the point mentioned above that the environment has been pretty ugly around Sandy today and we've only seen a relatively minimum rise in pressure).

As for specific, maybe 951.4 along the Jersey Shore/just southeast of the landfall zone.

[Quixotic1]

964

[WintersGrasp]

950

[MJO812]

945

[Riptide]

939 mb

[Jmister]

Down to 958 as of 10/27 15z, so first two categories are already out! Thinking my guess of the 950s is too high and would go more like 947 now.

[csnavywx]

938mb. She's already in the 950s, and though she probably won't drop that much in the next 24 hrs or so, I find it hard to believe that she doesn't undergo at least one more period of rapid intensification as the main trough imparts substantial baroclinic energy on the system. But... who knows?

[Cory]

I voted 950-959 in the poll but my WRF came up with 936 mb.

[okie333]

943

[dan88]

With 951mb now, seems somewhat likely that the baroclinic intensification near landfall could likely take it down to <940mb

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

I've been 940 mb with a landfall near Cape May, NJ... but with this current rate of intensification, I would not be surprised to see Sandy get into 930s... possibly even breaking into the 920s.

[WeatherNC]

952.3 Surf City NJ

Edit: In or near (take the under, upper 940's)

942.3 Normandy Beach NJ

In or near (upper 930's would not shock me, high 940's would)

[andyhb]

Well I was a crapload conservative, considering it's already at the pressure I thought...

[Geos]

942mb near Toms River, NJ.

[Cory]

Just for fun, here's the pressure forecast from my latest WRF model run, extracted from a gridpoint at the model's landfall location (near Toms River, NJ).

[Jmister]

Well, we're down to 946 mb as of 10/29 09z so that takes care of the first three categories! How low will she go?

[Thunder Road]

940