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Detroit's Seasonal Snowfall Maps 2004 - Present


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http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/cms.php?n=seasonal_snow

It appears the city of Detroit does in fact have its own microclimate, for the worse. For every season since 2004, there has been a 10-20 inch difference between seasonal snowfall totals in the city proper and just about everywhere else in DTX's forecasting region (even Metro Airport).

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Those maps are a complete joke. There are a lot of very arbitrary and wildly different totals that realistically do not happen. I seriously doubt that Grosse Pointe only had 8.9" last winter.

I think michsnowfreak can attest to the gross inaccuracies of those maps. I can't believe DTX would even post that to their site! :axe:

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Those maps are a complete joke. There are a lot of very arbitrary and wildly different totals that realistically do not happen. I seriously doubt that Grosse Pointe only had 8.9" last winter.

I think michsnowfreak can attest to the gross inaccuracies of those maps. I can't believe DTX would even post that to their site! :axe:

Looking at Southern Macomb County, those numbers there aren't off by much. I'd say we ended up in the 12-16" range.

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Those maps are a complete joke. There are a lot of very arbitrary and wildly different totals that realistically do not happen. I seriously doubt that Grosse Pointe only had 8.9" last winter.

I think michsnowfreak can attest to the gross inaccuracies of those maps. I can't believe DTX would even post that to their site! :axe:

I think it was kab2791 who lived in another NE suburb and also recorded unusually low snowfall measurements (using the method provided by the NWS), relative to everyone else in the region.

I didn't buy his measurements either at first, but I do wonder why DTX would post maps like that if they weren't at least close to accurate.

10"-20" is a fairly significant margin of error for locales within several miles of each other.

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I think it was kab2791 who lived in another NE suburb and also recorded unusually low snowfall measurements (using the method provided by the NWS), relative to everyone else in the region.

I didn't buy his measurements either at first, but I do wonder why DTX would post maps like that if they weren't at least close to accurate.

10"-20" is a fairly significant margin of error for locales within several miles of each other.

Compare the totals in michsnowfreak's signature to the maps for each year. They are way off and I trust his measurements.

The 10/11 map looks way too funky. A 23" difference between Dearborn and Romulus. Get real. A 30" pocket in Eastern Saginaw County between an official 76.2" at MBS and 72.1" at FNT ... come on!

I just don't buy 20-30" snowfall variations over 5-10 mile stretches.

I think these maps more or less illustrate the point of how subjective measuring snowfall is. What one observer measures, another might measure completely different versus 1.15" of rain in the gauge is 1.15" of rain in the gauge. 2.4" of snow to someone is 0.6" to someone else (measured 8 hours after snow stopped on a windy day) or 4.6" to someone else (measured immediately in a protected area).

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Compare the totals in michsnowfreak's signature to the maps for each year. They are way off and I trust his measurements.

The 10/11 map looks way too funky. A 23" difference between Dearborn and Romulus. Get real. A 30" pocket in Eastern Saginaw County between an official 76.2" at MBS and 72.1" at FNT ... come on!

I just don't buy 20-30" snowfall variations over 5-10 mile stretches.

I think these maps more or less illustrate the point of how subjective measuring snowfall is. What one observer measures, another might measure completely different versus 1.15" of rain in the gauge is 1.15" of rain in the gauge. 2.4" of snow to someone is 0.6" to someone else (measured 8 hours after snow stopped on a windy day) or 4.6" to someone else (measured immediately in a protected area).

I'm not doubting michsnowfreak's measurements.

But it's just funny how every single map since 2004 essentially has that same 10-20" difference between the city of Detroit and the surrounding areas. Even accounting for the margin of error as the contours are estimated from the actual reports, it still seems like an awfully significant difference.

Monroe and Mt. Clemens had pretty notable differences (though not as significant as Grosse Pointe and Detroit) from the surrounding areas as well each year. Using last season for example, Monroe was 10" while Mt. Clemens was 14.6". Meanwhile the average otherwise seemed to be in the 20-30" range.

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Disregarding the anomalous reports. the maps do point out trends in snowfall, which includes low totals for the Detroit area. It's also interesting to note yearly heavier snow totals in eastern Oakland/western Livingston counties, extending down to western Wayne/eastern Washtenaw. I don't find it hard to believe with the lakes and elevation affecting snowfall.

Down here, there are notable snowfall variations within a few miles even though the terrain is flat. FWA recorded 5" more than me last winter, even though it is less than 25 miles from here. The reason? Trajectories of lake effect bands, even though we are 100 miles from Lake Michigan. If you add the sharp cutoffs of many synoptic snows, the differences in totals can quickly add up.

This is just an observation and yes, some snow totals can look suspicious. However, the maps do point out trends in the interesting micro-climates of SE MI.

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Disregarding the anomalous reports. the maps do point out trends in snowfall, which includes low totals for the Detroit area. It's also interesting to note yearly heavier snow totals in eastern Oakland/western Livingston counties, extending down to western Wayne/eastern Washtenaw. I don't find it hard to believe with the lakes and elevation affecting snowfall.

Down here, there are notable snowfall variations within a few miles even though the terrain is flat. FWA recorded 5" more than me last winter, even though it is less than 25 miles from here. The reason? Trajectories of lake effect bands, even though we are 100 miles from Lake Michigan. If you add the sharp cutoffs of many synoptic snows, the differences in totals can quickly add up.

This is just an observation and yes, some snow totals can look suspicious. However, the maps do point out trends in the interesting micro-climates of SE MI.

Yeah this part is the key in all of this, whether or not the magnitude of the values are correct (I actually think for the most part they are), it is the overall theme you are getting from it.

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These maps are a serious fricking JOKE and I cant believe the NWS would put such non-quality controlled data out there. This has NOTHING to do with a microclimate in Detroit. I should actually email DTX about these maps.

Basically, the maps were taken by totalling up the coop-observers snow totals, which are often inaccurate, but there are no 2 worse ones than Dearborn and most importantly Grosse Pointe. They only use the coop stations that do full reports (temps) so mine are not even used. The Grosse Pointe totals are the biggest joke there is because often times they simply dont report snowfall and when they do it is grossly underdone. So you have this ridiculous total come out of Grosse Pointe, a more realistic total at DTW, and then a much higher total at ARB, so you have to color the maps and make the colors make sense to show "higher" and "lower" areas of snowfall (they even show DTW further west than it actually is lol) so to account for the gross inaccuracy of Grosse Pointe, voila, you get this "microclimate" in eastern Wayne county that totally doesnt exist. That map implies that every snowstorm gives eastern wayne county less snow the closer and closer you get to the water, well guess what, I live right on the water LOL.

Let me show you the numbers:

2011-12: 25.5" mby, 26.0" DTW (per the map, 10" imby, 26" DTW)

2010-12: 69.4" mby, 69.1" DTW (per the map, 40" imby, 69" DTW)

2009-10: 46.1" mby, 43.7" DTW (per the map, 25" imby, 44" DTW)

2008-09: 64.8" mby, 65.7" DTW (per the map, 50" imby, 65" DTW)

2007-08: 78.2" mby, 71.7" DTW (per the map, 45" imby, 72" DTW)

2006-07: 36.3" mby, 30.3" DTW (per the map, 15" imby, 30" DTW)

2005-06: 41.9" mby, 36.3" DTW (per the map, 18" imby, 36" DTW)

2004-05: 80.7" mby, 63.8" DTW (per the map, 40" imby, 64" DTW) ***DTWs totals were unbelievable low this year***

Lets just simply dissect the most recent winter, 2011-12, since it will be the easiest as it was the least snowy the region has seen in years. So, 8.9" near Detroit, huh? Ok...lets see here....NOT counting ANY of the less than an inch snows...DET got between

1-3" Dec 5th

1-3" Jan 14/15th

2-4" Jan 19/20th

2" Jan 27-29 (at least 2" from 3 seperate small events

3-5" Feb 10/11th

1" Feb 14th (at least 1")

2-4" Feb 23/24th

This is a range of 12-22" right there...and that DOES NOT count ANY of the under-inch snows, which would amount to AT LEAST a few more inches.

Here is my annual pictoral summary of winter from 2011-12. Look at the pics, and dates...and per that map I got a TOTAL of 10" of snow LOL

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Yeah this part is the key in all of this, whether or not the magnitude of the values are correct (I actually think for the most part they are), it is the overall theme you are getting from it.

For the most part they are mostly correct. If anything many spotters may miss those nickel/dime dustings, or at least underdo them, which can account for a few extra inches. But theres a HUGE exception at Grosse Pointe which COMPLETELY ruins the whole map and idea of some insane microclimate in Detroit. They have to find some way to make that outrageously low total at Grosse pointe mesh with all the nearby totals that are much higher, and the only way to do that is to simply, and erroneously, grossly cut-off snow amounts in eastern Wayne county.

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These maps are a serious fricking JOKE and I cant believe the NWS would put such non-quality controlled data out there. This has NOTHING to do with a microclimate in Detroit. I should actually email DTX about these maps.

Basically, the maps were taken by totalling up the coop-observers snow totals, which are often inaccurate, but there are no 2 worse ones than Dearborn and most importantly Grosse Pointe. They only use the coop stations that do full reports (temps) so mine are not even used. The Grosse Pointe totals are the biggest joke there is because often times they simply dont report snowfall and when they do it is grossly underdone. So you have this ridiculous total come out of Grosse Pointe, a more realistic total at DTW, and then a much higher total at ARB, so you have to color the maps and make the colors make sense to show "higher" and "lower" areas of snowfall (they even show DTW further west than it actually is lol) so to account for the gross inaccuracy of Grosse Pointe, voila, you get this "microclimate" in eastern Wayne county that totally doesnt exist. That map implies that every snowstorm gives eastern wayne county less snow the closer and closer you get to the water, well guess what, I live right on the water LOL.

Let me show you the numbers:

2011-12: 25.5" mby, 26.0" DTW (per the map, 10" imby, 26" DTW)

2010-12: 69.4" mby, 69.1" DTW (per the map, 40" imby, 69" DTW)

2009-10: 46.1" mby, 43.7" DTW (per the map, 25" imby, 44" DTW)

2008-09: 64.8" mby, 65.7" DTW (per the map, 50" imby, 65" DTW)

2007-08: 78.2" mby, 71.7" DTW (per the map, 45" imby, 72" DTW)

2006-07: 36.3" mby, 30.3" DTW (per the map, 15" imby, 30" DTW)

2005-06: 41.9" mby, 36.3" DTW (per the map, 18" imby, 36" DTW)

2004-05: 80.7" mby, 63.8" DTW (per the map, 40" imby, 64" DTW) ***DTWs totals were unbelievable low this year***

Lets just simply dissect the most recent winter, 2011-12, since it will be the easiest as it was the least snowy the region has seen in years. So, 8.9" near Detroit, huh? Ok...lets see here....NOT counting ANY of the less than an inch snows...DET got between

1-3" Dec 5th

1-3" Jan 14/15th

2-4" Jan 19/20th

2" Jan 27-29 (at least 2" from 3 seperate small events

3-5" Feb 10/11th

1" Feb 14th (at least 1")

2-4" Feb 23/24th

This is a range of 12-22" right there...and that DOES NOT count ANY of the under-inch snows, which would amount to AT LEAST a few more inches.

Here is my annual pictoral summary of winter from 2011-12. Look at the pics, and dates...and per that map I got a TOTAL of 10" of snow LOL

http://www.americanw...es-se-michigan/

Here are Grosse Pointes totals for 2011-12

Nov- 0.5"

Dec 9- 0.5"

Dec 18- 0.2"

Dec 24- 0.3"

So....they apparently got no snow on Dec 5th when everyone surrounding them got 2-3". Interesting

Jan 13- 0.2"

Jan 21- 2.0"

Jan 30- 1.0"

Utterly amazing that while everyone around them managed 2-4" from Jan 13-15 they had 0.2". Also interesting that the whiteout coldfront on Jan 19th that blinded downtown with 1"+ managed to give GP nothing. And the 28-29th simply say "M". And all the dustings just plain didnt exist.

Feb 11- 3.2"

Feb 24- 1.0"

Interesting how the Valentines Day 1-2" shows up as "M" and the 25th also shows as "M".

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Compare the totals in michsnowfreak's signature to the maps for each year. They are way off and I trust his measurements.

The 10/11 map looks way too funky. A 23" difference between Dearborn and Romulus. Get real. A 30" pocket in Eastern Saginaw County between an official 76.2" at MBS and 72.1" at FNT ... come on!

I just don't buy 20-30" snowfall variations over 5-10 mile stretches.

I think these maps more or less illustrate the point of how subjective measuring snowfall is. What one observer measures, another might measure completely different versus 1.15" of rain in the gauge is 1.15" of rain in the gauge. 2.4" of snow to someone is 0.6" to someone else (measured 8 hours after snow stopped on a windy day) or 4.6" to someone else (measured immediately in a protected area).

Absolutely!

Every winter I always ask, why does the Grosse Pt observer even bother LOL? But to see them taint a map like that makes me mad.

Let me explain how the Grosse Pt observer does things:

*often simply doesnt report snow as it shows up as M

*often seemingly underdoes most snows, you can guarentee whatever is on the snowboard, even if not a flake has fallen in 20 hours, is what they report

*This is my FAVORITE, and it is done quite often with this GP observer. Say there is no snow on the ground, then a 2" snowfall happens. they will report new snow 0.2" and snow depth 2" (when obviously there was no snow on the ground prior). This is a case, I think, of misunderstanding the phone prompts when typing in the numbers.

As much of a joke every season is for mby, I admit that the 30" blob between the 70-80" areas is hilarious.

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Absolutely!

Every winter I always ask, why does the Grosse Pt observer even bother LOL? But to see them taint a map like that makes me mad.

Let me explain how the Grosse Pt observer does things:

*often simply doesnt report snow as it shows up as M

*often seemingly underdoes most snows, you can guarentee whatever is on the snowboard, even if not a flake has fallen in 20 hours, is what they report

*This is my FAVORITE, and it is done quite often with this GP observer. Say there is no snow on the ground, then a 2" snowfall happens. they will report new snow 0.2" and snow depth 2" (when obviously there was no snow on the ground prior). This is a case, I think, of misunderstanding the phone prompts when typing in the numbers.

As much of a joke every season is for mby, I admit that the 30" blob between the 70-80" areas is hilarious.

But what I don't understand is if the observer in Grosse Pointe is THAT bad, why would DTX even include them in when making these official seasonal snowfall maps?

I can buy the higher totals in the areas of higher elevation, and although I know the city of Detroit tends to have lower totals with its proximity to the lake and with downsloping, the totals on those maps just seem extremely low.

Even the snowfall measurements I take on the NE side of the city don't differ THAT much from across the region (on average they're lower, but not by much). Since I am technically a trained spotter, maybe I need to start sending in more realistic measurements in the winter to help cancel out the Grosse Pointe observations.

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I have to say there's something screwy going on with those maps. Lol, no way would have have 30" differences in a couple dozen miles! I guess being near the water, you could have lower totals, but not on the order of 20-30" less!

It does look like western Oakland and eastern Livingston Counties are the places to be if you want generous snowfall amounts.

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But what I don't understand is if the observer in Grosse Pointe is THAT bad, why would DTX even include them in when making these official seasonal snowfall maps?

I can buy the higher totals in the areas of higher elevation, and although I know the city of Detroit tends to have lower totals with its proximity to the lake and with downsloping, the totals on those maps just seem extremely low.

Even the snowfall measurements I take on the NE side of the city don't differ THAT much from across the region (on average they're lower, but not by much). Since I am technically a trained spotter, maybe I need to start sending in more realistic measurements in the winter to help cancel out the Grosse Pointe observations.

Who knows why they use them...my guess is interns are making the maps and just not thinking. Ive known for years the GP spotter was crappy. By the way, if you do measure snow...ABSOLUTELY report it to the NWS!!! It would be a HUGE help!!!

By the way, I looked up Environment Canada's Windsor totals, and converted them from cm to in...and look at the following....

.................DTW.......MBY.......WIN.....THE MAP SAYS.....

2004-05......63.8".....80.7"......88.8"......Amounts taper from 60s at DTW to 40" or so near mby./windsor

2005-06......36.3".....41.9"......44.7"......Amounts taper from 30s at DTW to mid-teens near mby/windsor

2006-07......30.3".....36.3"......33.5"......Amounts taper from 30 at DTW to mid-teens near mby/windsor

2007-08......71.7".....78.2"......79.4"......Amounts taper from 70s at DTW to 40s near mby/windsor

2008-09......65.7".....64.8"......76.2"......Amounts taper from 60s at DTW to 50 near mby/windsor

2009-10......43.7".....46.1"......44.5"......Amounts taper from 40s at DTW to 20s near mby/windsor

2010-11......69.1".....69.4"......81.2"......Amounts taper from 60s at DTW to 40 or so near mby/windsor

2011-12......26.0".....25.5"......33.4"......Amounts taper from 20s at DTW to 10 or so near mby/windsor

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The radar has a lot to do with this. There is no way that SW Oakland Cty/Washtenaw and Livingston County gets more Snow every year then Northern Oakland. Im telling you its radar not estimating correct amounts especially places close PTK.

Radar does not estimate snowfall.

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For the most part they are mostly correct. If anything many spotters may miss those nickel/dime dustings, or at least underdo them, which can account for a few extra inches. But theres a HUGE exception at Grosse Pointe which COMPLETELY ruins the whole map and idea of some insane microclimate in Detroit. They have to find some way to make that outrageously low total at Grosse pointe mesh with all the nearby totals that are much higher, and the only way to do that is to simply, and erroneously, grossly cut-off snow amounts in eastern Wayne county.

Josh, considering I am about 4 miles or less from Grosse Pointe as the crow flies I would know if it was extreme or not, and to be honest I don't think it is that far off. I mean where I am it was roughly 12-16" last year. I mean 8.9 might be a touch low, but 10-15" is not that unrealistic. I mean a few of the storms really missed the NE side of town. Plus any sort of lake effect stragglers that might have came across the state wouldn't make it that far E.

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The radar has a lot to do with this. There is no way that SW Oakland Cty/Washtenaw and Livingston County gets more Snow every year then Northern Oakland. Im telling you its radar not estimating correct amounts especially places close PTK.

What does the radar have to do with any of this?

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Josh, considering I am about 4 miles or less from Grosse Pointe as the crow flies I would know if it was extreme or not, and to be honest I don't think it is that far off. I mean where I am it was roughly 12-16" last year. I mean 8.9 might be a touch low, but 10-15" is not that unrealistic. I mean a few of the storms really missed the NE side of town. Plus any sort of lake effect stragglers that might have came across the state wouldn't make it that far E.

I do not at all doubt that the far NE side of town usually is among the lowest totals....but my point is the erroneous GP data completely, 100% throws off the data for Wayne county. They take that laughable total and extend it south and west til you hit DTW (rather than NE into Macomb) and its just ridiculous. From what is gathered, the EastPoint, West Bloomfield, and myself are pretty reliable for daily snowfall....Dearborn and especially Grosse Pt are not...and DTW is the official. That is pretty much all the data that encompasses southern Oakland/Macomb into Wayne co.

For 2011-12, GP reported NO snow on Dec 5, Jan 15, Jan 19, Jan 28-29, Feb 14....all days when they probably had 1"+.

Lets look at 2010-11. That is the worst of all. 30.2". LOL. Are you kidding me? Most of SE MI saw that in FEB. ALL snowfall data for Feb is missing other than 8" on Feb 20th. Also the Mar 5th snowstorm is M. That means that FOUR advisory/warning snowfalls from Feb/Mar are completely missing, totaling probably at minimum 20". Thats not even counting some other smaller falls are scattered missing from DJF. So because this observer missed recording 2 feet of snow during this winter, that gets overlooked and extrapolated to make a fabulous winter look like a somewhat below average winter for the heart of Detroit? Plain wrong.

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I do not at all doubt that the far NE side of town usually is among the lowest totals....but my point is the erroneous GP data completely, 100% throws off the data for Wayne county. They take that laughable total and extend it south and west til you hit DTW (rather than NE into Macomb) and its just ridiculous. From what is gathered, the EastPoint, West Bloomfield, and myself are pretty reliable for daily snowfall....Dearborn and especially Grosse Pt are not...and DTW is the official. That is pretty much all the data that encompasses southern Oakland/Macomb into Wayne co.

For 2011-12, GP reported NO snow on Dec 5, Jan 15, Jan 19, Jan 28-29, Feb 14....all days when they probably had 1"+.

Lets look at 2010-11. That is the worst of all. 30.2". LOL. Are you kidding me? Most of SE MI saw that in FEB. ALL snowfall data for Feb is missing other than 8" on Feb 20th. Also the Mar 5th snowstorm is M. That means that FOUR advisory/warning snowfalls from Feb/Mar are completely missing, totaling probably at minimum 20". Thats not even counting some other smaller falls are scattered missing from DJF. So because this observer missed recording 2 feet of snow during this winter, that gets overlooked and extrapolated to make a fabulous winter look like a somewhat below average winter for the heart of Detroit? Plain wrong.

Yeah there seems to be an issue then, I was merely speaking on behalf of last winter were the NE burbs got the screws put to them.

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Yeah there seems to be an issue then, I was merely speaking on behalf of last winter were the NE burbs got the screws put to them.

These maps intrigued me to go to NCDC and look up Grosse Pointes data for recent years...and this is what Ive found...

Looking at previous seasons, there is some M data but not nearly as much as 2010-now. I do notice a habit in most of those pre-2010 years is that though they did include some small snowfalls like 0.2 (*though like many coops, tons of probable 0.1-0.5 dustings are marked as "T").....almost all noticeable snowfalls (1-2"+) were recorded as an even number (6.0, 3.0, 2.0, etc) and many of them seem quite low (again, we are talking 2+ years out, so Im saying "quite low" based on what MBY/DTW got....dont remember storm track for many). HOWEVER...the snowfalls that seem to be quite close to DTW/MBY/rest of area are the ones that fall in the early morning hours, ie, right up to the morning observation time. This makes me think whatever is on that snowboard at their 6am obs time is what is recorded for snowfall. If its a snowfall with light wind that lasted from 12am-5am and the observer is recording at 6am, it matches other areas because not much has settled or anything. If its a snowfall from the previous afternoon/evening, you are talking melting, settling, drifting etc which just doesnt jive with how much snow fell. Clearly they dont use the 6-hour method, but I could handle at least marking SOMETHING rather than leaving it blank or putting M. The amount of M data the last 2 winters has rendered that station 100% useless for accurate data outside of an occasional storm.

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Is it possible we could be over analyzing this guys. Those maps are not gospel and I'm sure the WFO understands this. Looks to me that these maps display a generalized spread of snow or distribution. Clearly these maps might have been computer generated.

Meh, like I said, my biggest issue is the Grosse Pointe numbers. Tons of missing data = useless. That is what causes a continuous glitch in Wayne co. Its like figuring out the average snowfall for the past 10 years for station X by taking that stations data, but 2 years are M so you add the 8 seasons that have data but still divide by 10 to get your answer. Its completely wrong.

The maps actually werent a bad idea but the non-official data should have been scanned more closely for errors. Because, ya know, its totally feasible that FNT and MBS picked up near 80" with an area of 30" between them :lol: Just like its common for DTW to record 30-40" more than Grosse Pointe in a snowy season :lol:

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Meh, like I said, my biggest issue is the Grosse Pointe numbers. Tons of missing data = useless. That is what causes a continuous glitch in Wayne co. Its like figuring out the average snowfall for the past 10 years for station X by taking that stations data, but 2 years are M so you add the 8 seasons that have data but still divide by 10 to get your answer. Its completely wrong.

The maps actually werent a bad idea but the non-official data should have been scanned more closely for errors. Because, ya know, its totally feasible that FNT and MBS picked up near 80" with an area of 30" between them :lol: Just like its common for DTW to record 30-40" more than Grosse Pointe in a snowy season :lol:

My favorite are the wildly different totals between Romulus and Dearborn, that's like what, 6 miles and no elevation change? 20-30" annual difference almost every year. :whistle:

Like I said before, those maps only show the bias and flaws of whatever coop station is reporting. The eastern lakes have so many nickel and dime events, so if you have 30-40 measurable snow events in the winter season and are off a half inch here, an inch there, next thing you know you have a 30-40" difference than someone 5 miles away. Let's assume that there was a coop spotter stationed every 5 miles and then you plotted the 100's of totals across SE Michigan, you'd end up with a map that looked like a kid finger painted on a slice of swiss cheese. Realistically, there won't be 20-30" lollipops every couple miles, but because of human error and the subjectivity of snow measuring, that's what happens when you plot it out.

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