Isotherm Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Some of the analogs for this winter has a backloaded winter. Oh boy, I think it's a bit too early to pull out the old backloaded trick. Usually that waits until at least 12/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Oh boy, I think it's a bit too early to pull out the old backloaded trick. Usually that waits until at least 12/15. Yes it is too early for that and also too early to cancel winter like a lot of people are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Say goodbye to any shot of below normal temps for Dec . Models dont see the trough in the East thru Dec 20 . Compliments to DThe was the first one to call back 10 days ago a warmer than normal Dec. didnt he go for a cold decemeber just a few weeks ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 didnt he go for a cold decemeber just a few weeks ago? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 didnt he go for a cold decemeber just a few weeks ago? No , at the end of the Nov , he believed Dec would start out warm , day or so ago , he believes the second half is colder , there are others who believe that too , think his 1 st forecast of a warm start was good , think it was a mistake to call for a turn just yet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Yes it is too early for that and also too early to cancel winter like a lot of people are doing. Dude , no one is canceling the entire winter , but I would cancel most of Dec , do you not see whats happening right in front of your eyes ? Every recent run of the 10 day 500 MB on the Euro just gets worse .The GFS which always dumps the trough in the east day 15 is even backing off . That has to tell you , you are goin in the wrong direction .There is nothing enticing about the next 15 days , thats gona get you real close to the 4 th week of Dec . Dec temps ( thats all we are talking about ) , game set match . you are finishing above normal . Now if you chose to look at it differently be my guest . I am just telling you whats kind of simple to see if you look objectively . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Dude , no one is canceling the entire winter , but I would cancel most of Dec , do you not see whats happening right in front of your eyes ? Every recent run of the 10 day 500 MB on the Euro just gets worse .The GFS which always dumps the trough in the east day 15 is even backing off . That has to tell you , you are goin in the wrong direction .There is nothing enticing about the next 15 days , thats gona get you real close to the 4 th week of Dec . Dec temps ( thats all we are talking about ) , game set match . you are finishing above normal . Now if you chose to look at it differently be my guest . I am just telling you whats kind of simple to see if you look objectively . And you believe the most recent 10-15 day modeling will verify as depicted? Not the best philosophy to employ. Based on your reaction it seems to me that you actually think that what is shown in the 10-15 day ranges is reliable. Seems foolish to believe what is depicted for that far out. It is your perogative to jump on board of course, but if you are making forecasts based on that, don't be surprised if most folks ignore your analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 And you believe the most recent 10-15 day modeling will verify as depicted? Not the best philosophy to employ. Based on your reaction it seems to me that you actually think that what is shown in the 10-15 day ranges is reliable. Seems foolish to believe what is depicted for that far out. It is your perogative to jump on board of course, but if you are making forecasts based on that, don't be surprised if most folks ignore your analysis. if u chose to look at weather through snow goggles then i cant hep you. ive described in previous posts that the set up is wrong for sustained cold in the east im not just looking at a 15 day operational run. take a look at the deep low on the euro ensembles over greenland where u wana see blocking. take a look at the ridge that sets up in 10 days too far off the west coast. so much so that polar vortex that was in alaska last week will migrate to the west coast. not into the central u s then east. thats why u keep seeing the trough getting pulled back everytime it gets to the easr coast. and ask urself. if a 15 day gfs operationals run is prone to dumping the trough over and over again only to correct as time passes. dont ur eyes open when the model doesnt even see that. in any case i dont care if u read or like my analysis. i will keep making them and Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 And you believe the most recent 10-15 day modeling will verify as depicted? Not the best philosophy to employ. Based on your reaction it seems to me that you actually think that what is shown in the 10-15 day ranges is reliable. Seems foolish to believe what is depicted for that far out. It is your perogative to jump on board of course, but if you are making forecasts based on that, don't be surprised if most folks ignore your analysis. Agree. The only constant w/ D7+ modelling has been changes every single cycle. I can guarantee you that today's D 8-10 data will not verify as depicted. Might be much better, hell, it might even be worse, but it won't be the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Oh boy, I think it's a bit too early to pull out the old backloaded trick. Usually that waits until at least 12/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I'm going to be a weenie and track next weeks storm. GFS keeps shifting east. Euro also shifted east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 I'm going to be a weenie and track next weeks storm. GFS keeps shifting east. Euro also shifted east . Thinking this will probably be a rain event for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Thinking this will probably be a rain event for the area. Same but nothing else to track so why not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 Same but nothing else to track so why not True. The GFS has been rather consistent with a storm in some form or another around the 15th. That storm has a more suppressed look to it right now at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 JB "06z ensembles much more palatable as block starts to rock. 3-4 week period of cold stormy weather for us starts next week" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Then what happens after the 3 week period JB is talking about? We go back to a warm and dry pattern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 My weather.com forecast right now (Putnam County): Light snow will develop by early evening. Partly to mostly clear with temperatures cooling into the low to middle 30s. Winds NW at 15 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 45%. Snowfall of less than half an inch through 8:30pm. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Then what happens after the 3 week period JB is talking about? We go back to a warm and dry pattern... There are hints of a change next week. We just have to see if it comes . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 if u chose to look at weather through snow goggles then i cant hep you. ive described in previous posts that the set up is wrong for sustained cold in the east im not just looking at a 15 day operational run. take a look at the deep low on the euro ensembles over greenland where u wana see blocking. take a look at the ridge that sets up in 10 days too far off the west coast. so much so that polar vortex that was in alaska last week will migrate to the west coast. not into the central u s then east. thats why u keep seeing the trough getting pulled back everytime it gets to the easr coast. and ask urself. if a 15 day gfs operationals run is prone to dumping the trough over and over again only to correct as time passes. dont ur eyes open when the model doesnt even see that. in any case i dont care if u read or like my analysis. i will keep making them and Regarding your bolded/underlined comments above: Past trends of the long range models don't necessarily translate/apply in every circumstance. As for other comments made, I did not state anything that would imply I am looking through snow goggles. I also did not say I don't like reading your analysis regularly. In fact I normally enjoy your posts, I'm just saying many people will disagree with or ignore this particular analysis based on any long range model output whether it be 15, 10 or even 7 days out, especially when you are discussing major players in the overall weather pattern (not just individual storms). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Agree. The only constant w/ D7+ modelling has been changes every single cycle. I can guarantee you that today's D 8-10 data will not verify as depicted. Might be much better, hell, it might even be worse, but it won't be the same. 100% agree with you as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Regarding your bolded/underlined comments above: Past trends of the long range models don't necessarily translate/apply in every circumstance. As for other comments made, I did not state anything that would imply I am looking through snow goggles. I also did not say I don't like reading your analysis regularly. In fact I normally enjoy your posts, I'm just saying many people will disagree with or ignore this particular analysis based on any long range model output whether it be 15, 10 or even 7 days out, especially when you are discussing major players in the overall weather pattern (not just individual storms). ok, kool . The only point I was making was i was growing weary when long range models that usually like to see cold air were shying away from it . So it caught my attention . That being said Isotherm is right , it could be colder or warmer , never verifies , so that point is taken . Just kept hearing Dec 15th as this big turn around date and I was just skeptical , So i take back the snow goggles comment . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Took this in Vermont this weekend. These were on my car windshield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 12/19 storm keeps showing up on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Hey it feels like winter out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Steve D thinks the east will start to get into a good pattern starting 12/15. He says that the polar vortex will shift south. http://www.nynjpaweather.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Took this in Vermont this weekend. These were on my car windshield. That's one of the beautiful images ever. I'd never wipe my windshield if I had those on my windshield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Took this in Vermont this weekend. These were on my car windshield. Amazing, I've never seen anything like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 how does sunday look for the giants game, looks dry to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 how does sunday look for the giants game, looks dry to me? ...looks fine. if you want a "weather game"..checkout sunday nite..the packers are home and looks like snow will be around the green bay area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 The models have been hinting at a storm around the Dec 17-20 timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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