uncle W Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 speaking of foilage there is still some leaves left on trees by my house and some of the leaves are still green...One block has nice red colors...We are in a positive AO now...The last week has been quite positive...Better now than later in the month but time is running out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 that snow really made me want more snow. standing in the heavy falling dendrites last week reminded me why i friggin love snowstorms. middlesex county has done well.... but i think that's because we're next to monmouth county. lol. wtf with monmouth county? i feel like if i lived 12 miles further southeast i would have seen 3ft. more snow in the last 5 years., Ya, bingo- 12 miles SE of you happens to be my hometown, Lol. I thank God that he's so graciously pronounced Monmouth as the new snow capital of the state. As I mentioned in a post the other day, I've seen 13 storms with 12"+ of snow since 2000, and 6 storms at or above 18" of snow (PD II, Dec 03, Jan 05, Feb 06, Dec 09, and Boxing Day). 2009-10 was a 72" winter here with 48" in the one month period from late jan to late feb. 2010-11 was a 57.5" winter with the 25" on boxing day. We cashed in on the Mid-atlantic centered 2009-10 winter and the more SNE/NYC centered 2010-11 winter. So, yeah, not to brag or anything, but it's been good to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 that snow really made me want more snow. standing in the heavy falling dendrites last week reminded me why i friggin love snowstorms. middlesex county has done well.... but i think that's because we're next to monmouth county. lol. wtf with monmouth county? i feel like if i lived 12 miles further southeast i would have seen 3ft. more snow in the last 5 years., We usually do exceptionally well in the stormy non gradient winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 that snow really made me want more snow. standing in the heavy falling dendrites last week reminded me why i friggin love snowstorms. middlesex county has done well.... but i think that's because we're next to monmouth county. lol. wtf with monmouth county? i feel like if i lived 12 miles further southeast i would have seen 3ft. more snow in the last 5 years., We usually do exceptionally well in the stormy non gradient winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 We usually do exceptionally well in the stormy non gradient winters. I was thinking similarly. Northern/western zones tend to do better in the less favorable, +NAO/AO type winters. However when the blockbuster winter patterns develop, folks closer to the coast like LI (also very snowy lately) and E CNJ do well. SNE too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Ya, bingo- 12 miles SE of you happens to be my hometown, Lol. I've seen 13 storms with 12"+ of snow since 2000, by comparison, there have been 8 storms here with 12"+ since 2000. in the previous 30 years (1970-2000) there were about 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 by comparison, there have been 8 storms here with 12"+ since 2000. in the previous 30 years (1970-2000) there were about 5. That 5 number seems a bit low. Off the top of my head, I think there were 2 in 1978, 1 in the 1986-87 winter, Feb 1983, Jan 1996, March 1993, and I think early Feb 1995 was just barely a foot in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 That 5 number seems a bit low. Off the top of my head, I think there were 2 in 1978, 1 in the 1986-87 winter, Feb 1983, Jan 1996, March 1993, and I think early Feb 1995 was just barely a foot in our area. That's right, 1995, that was our only snow event that year. Snowed a foot with thunder then changed to rain near the end of the event. Princeton had 16" New Brunswick 13". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 That 5 number seems a bit low. Off the top of my head, I think there were 2 in 1978, 1 in the 1986-87 winter, Feb 1983, Jan 1996, March 1993, and I think early Feb 1995 was just barely a foot in our area. oh yeah, i forgot march 93. feb 4,1995 event imby i had 11" that was a crazy event...... as i recall little if any snow was predicted. so sticking strictly to the 12" minimum it doesnt count. and yeah........ 1/22/87 there was 12" so instead of 5, it's 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 That's right, 1995, that was our only snow event that year. Snowed a foot with thunder then changed to rain near the end of the event. Princeton had 16" New Brunswick 13". okay to isotherm's point........ lets count the feb 1995 event as a 12"+ event in middlesex county. so from 1970-1999 there were 8 storms of 12"+ 2000-2012 there have been 8 storms of 12"+ good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 And only 1 from 1980-92 (though 1/87 was close) okay to isotherm's point........ lets count the feb 1995 event as a 12"+ event in middlesex county. so from 1970-1999 there were 8 storms of 12"+ 2000-2012 there have been 8 storms of 12"+ good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 And only 1 from 1980-92 (though 1/87 was close) Believe it or not though, the 1980s were a snowier decade than both the 70s and the 90s, at least in Monmouth / Middlesex. I calculated our local average to be 25.4" for the 70s, 25.3" for the 90s, and 27.5" for the 1980s, the latter of which isn't all that bad. Many years in the 1980s were actually in the 25-40" range for New Brunswick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Well it seemed like back then we were guaranteed at least 1 or 2 4-6" events though the big storms were rare. Now it seems to be feast or famine. Believe it or not though, the 1980s were a snowier decade than both the 70s and the 90s, at least in Monmouth / Middlesex. I calculated our local average to be 25.4" for the 70s, 25.3" for the 90s, and 27.5" for the 1980s, the latter of which isn't all that bad. Many years in the 1980s were actually in the 25-40" range for New Brunswick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Joe Bastardi December 2012 looking more like Dec 09/10 blend every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Joe Bastardi he forgot 1947 and 1960... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 he forgot 1947 and 1960... Yeah might as well just throw all of our snowiest Decembers ever in there as analogs. He's already got two Decembers that produced HECS for my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 DT The explosive development of SNOWCOVER in Eurasa in October of 2012 is a very strong signal that not only will this winter be vastly different from the previous super mild winter ... But is a strong indication that this winter will be close to what we saw on 2009-10. Combined with the very clear signal of a strong and persistent AO and NAO in OCT of 2012.... it is becoming increasingly hard to ignore all of these are strong indications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huntingtonwx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 DT talking about a storm for the 11/29 - 11/30. wonder if this will happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Steve D "In today's Discussions, I share the joy of tranquil weather for the week of Thanksgiving but give a strong warning about the up coming cold and stormy weather pattern on the way. Keep an eye on the North Atlantic Oscillation!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/sandy-winter-2012-2013-forecast/1741302 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 DT *** ABOUT POSSIBLE NOV 29-30 WINTER EVENT FOR THE NORTHEAST US *** Ignore the 12z GFS model today. Its crap. Use the GFS ensemble... this image is from the PSD GFS ENSEMBLE... it shows the JET STREAM pattern for LATE NOV 30-DEC 1... the big "L" off the Northeast coast is the Piece of energy that COULD develop into a winter storm for the Northeast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Does anyone have scientific evidence as to why we dont want snow in october/november if we want above avg snow in winter? Or is it pure anecdotal based on sparse data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 DT i put stock in his winter call, primarily because he's been very good (generally) at calling in-season pattern changes... despite frequently being contrarian when doing so. i would never bet a dime on anyone's seasonal forecast, but having DT on board is a feather in our snow-loving cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 CVS finally got power back . My boss plans to reopen the store on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Does anyone have scientific evidence as to why we dont want snow in october/november if we want above avg snow in winter? Or is it pure anecdotal based on sparse data? Years with snow in October or early November...Some good years and some bad...1962, 1972, 1979 and 2002 had a trace in Central Park in October but some parts of the city picked up a dusting... season.......snow/date.....season/largest snow... 1876-77.....0.5"...10/15.......40.4"...11.0" 1879-80.....2.3"...11/05.......22.7"..... 1892-93.....2.0"...11/09.......49.7".....9.0" 1925-26.....0.8"...10/30.......32.4"...10.4"...12.0" 1952-53.....0.5"...10/20.......15.1".....4.2" 1953-54.....2.2"...11/06.......15.8".....7.8" 1962-63.......T.....10/26.......16.3".....4.2" 1972-73.......T.....10/19.........2.8".....1.8" 1979-80.......T.....10/10.......12.8".....4.6" 1987-88.....1.1"...11/11.......19.1".....5.8" 2002-03.......T.....10/30.......49.3"...19.8" 2011-12.....2.9"...10/29.........7.4".....4.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 DT Both the 12z GFS and ECMWF ensemble means indicate a lakes cutter for the 28th. Don't know why he keeps honking this threat for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Both the 12z GFS and ECMWF ensemble means indicate a lakes cutter. Don't know why he keeps honking this threat for us. Coastalwx That's a virtual SWFE on the euro ensembles. Nice kink in the isobars to the east, south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Coastalwx The secondary pops up too late for us down here. Parts of Upstate NY/New England could fair better though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Thank God. CVS finally got power back . My boss plans to reopen the store on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Thank God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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