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Mt. Holly Severe Threats


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Missed again today. So far this summer on the the days with pulse storms, we have only ended up with one light shower here.

Bad luck in your neck of the woods. Nothing here today, but I've had close to 3 inches of rain in the past 10 days. With that said, I planted a few new crape myrtles in the yard today and digging into the dirt, it's bone dry not far from the surface.

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Bad luck in your neck of the woods. Nothing here today, but I've had close to 3 inches of rain in the past 10 days. With that said, I planted a few new crape myrtles in the yard today and digging into the dirt, it's bone dry not far from the surface.

not much in Macungie lately- missed out on the storms that hit you. Sorry but planting trees this time of the year is not recommended unless you plan on watering them everyday.

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not much in Macungie lately- missed out on the storms that hit you. Sorry but planting trees this time of the year is not recommended unless you plan on watering them everyday.

Meh, I planted a few Crape's last year in August and they were fine. Risky, a little...but considering we are moving toward middle August and the weather pattern is providing occasional rain I'm not too worried. I also have the time right now to water them daily if needed.

They'll have time to root themselves before winter.

As for the severe threat......I'm really not liking the fropa timing. Maybe some good stuff will race out well ahead of the front.

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Well hello there, 30% almost to PHL now.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

LOL...the 30% got shaved way back.

We go from...

...MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND TO OH/TN VALLEYS...

DEEP CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE TIED TO THE

EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A POTENT SUMMERTIME UPPER

TROUGH...FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION/ONTARIO EARLY SUNDAY TO

QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE SUNDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW

ALOFT WITH A MODERATELY STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL OVERSPREAD

THE UPPER OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY

NIGHT...WITH CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WESTERLIES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO

THE TN VALLEY.

AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT

SCATTERED TSTMS/PERHAPS AN MCS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING

ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES VICINITIES. SOME QUESTIONS

LINGER REGARDING CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY

SUNDAY...AND THE EXACT MAGNITUDE/SPATIAL LOCATION OF PRIMARY

PRE-FRONTAL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON

FOR AREAS SUCH AS THE UPPER OH VALLEY. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT EARLY

DAY TSTMS AND REMNANT OUTFLOWS/PERHAPS EVEN AN MCV COULD BE FACTORS

THAT INFLUENCE/FOCUS A REINVIGORATION OF TSTMS INTO A

MOIST/INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. WELL EAST OF

THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT...OTHER TSTMS MAY MATURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON

ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY/PA INTO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN VICINITY OF

HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLE CORRIDOR OF PRE-FRONTAL

CONFLUENCE/SURFACE TROUGH.

REGARDLESS OF THESE DETAILS...A GENERAL INCREASE/INTENSIFICATION OF

TSTMS IS LIKELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF

NY/PA AND OTHER PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY...SOUTHWESTWARD INTO

THE TN VALLEY. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...STEEPENING LOW

LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MODERATE BUOYANCY /1000-3000 J PER KG

SBCAPE/ WILL ACCOUNT FOR STRONG/SUSTAINED STORMS WITHIN A WEAK TO

MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS ARE

LIKELY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY OVERALL HAZARD...BUT SOME

SUPERCELLS/PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS

PORTIONS OF NY/PA INTO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE DEEP LAYER

SHEAR/LOW-LEVEL SRH WILL BE A BIT STRONGER. SEVERAL ORGANIZED

QUASI-LINEAR CLUSTERS AND MCS/S MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE BY LATE

AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT

/MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS/ REACHING AS FAR EAST AS INTERIOR NEW

ENGLAND/NORTHEAST SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT.

to...

AREAS OF RAIN AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD

ALONG THE FRONT...FROM FAR WRN NY INTO ERN OH. THIS ACTIVITY MAY

CONTAIN MARGINAL WIND OR HAIL AS IT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS PA AND NY.

HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL...WITH MOIST

PROFILES AND EXPANDING CLOUDINESS. ALSO...LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE

WEAK WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -6 C. VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT

WILL SOMEWHAT FAVOR ROTATION...BUT WITH WEAK UPDRAFTS...AND MARGINAL

DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ONLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND ARE

EXPECTED. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE LOW

LEVEL SHEAR AND MOIST PROFILES. THE BEST WIND PROFILES WILL BE OVER

NRN AND WRN NY...THUS WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY HIGHER PROBS THERE

FOR MAINLY WIND.

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Wow, Mt. Holly had it to the minute for thunderstorm timing. The special statement said 4:00 for Somerset, and 4:00 it was, precisely. This one came up fast. I was out running errands 20 minutes ago, got back, happened to look out again and the storm was approaching.

Edit - lots of wind for about 10 minutes. Between 40-45 mph, I would say. Heaviest rain of the year, still raining heavily. Good storm!

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rare long term svr discussion today. :thumbsup:

THIS PATTERN SHOULD MEAN HUMID SUMMER WARMTH TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST

OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SEVERAL MORE SHORT FUSE HYDRO

AND WIND/HAIL RELATED CONVECTIVE WARNING DAYS.

SVR POTENTIAL:

WED...TT NEAR 50. MLCAPE 1200J. EC/GFS HAVE LARGE MID LVL LAPSE

RATES INDICATED. SO DESPITE WEAK SHEAR LIKE THIS AFTERNOONS

ACTIVITY...ISO SVR IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE.

THU...CONTINUES VERY UNSTABLE...AND LOOKS SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY.

FRI...MODELED 0-6KM SHEAR GROWS /30KT/...SO ITS POSSIBLE WE`LL

HAVE AN EXTENSIVE SVR OUTBREAK IN THE AFTN/EVE NW PTN OF THE FA

I95 NWWD. TT NEAR 50.

SAT... UNCERTAINTY BUT SEEMS LIKE A HIGH TT DAY AS COLD TROUGH ALOFT

DEVELOPS EWD AND SHEAR CONTINUES LARGE SO TENTATIVELY...MAY NEED TO

MONITOR FOR SVR.

TEMPS: CALENDAR DAY AVG`S GENERALLY AOA NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THIS

FCST PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHC FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SEEMING TO

BE TUESDAY.

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post-105-0-90893200-1344163492_thumb.jpg

...NORTHEAST U.S. SWWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO THE MID MS VALLEY...

THE ADVANCING SURFACE COLD FRONT -- LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY ONGOING

STORMS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- WILL FOCUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY

THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHEAST AND MIDWEST REGIONS.

THOUGH GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED ACROSS THE PRE-FRONTAL

WARM SECTOR -- PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NRN EXTENT OF THE FRONT ACROSS

THE NORTHEAST STATES...LOCAL HEATING OF THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS

WILL YIELD AMPLE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE ONGOING CONVECTION.

THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES

AREA...AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NEWD ACROSS SERN CANADA TOWARD

THE MARITIMES. THIS SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY GREATER POTENTIAL FOR

ORGANIZED CONVECTION -- AND ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT --

ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN AND WRN NY STATE. ELSEWHERE FARTHER SWWD

ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE

POSSIBLE -- MAINLY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING WITH

WEAKLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

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