CT Rain Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Yeah Albany gets hit good on the NAM. Shear (just the winds aloft) look pretty good actually. Just a question of instability out there I guess. Yeah I was looking at some of the soundings for this area up through Litchfield County and it certainly doesn't look bad. The question is getting enough sun and keeping dews high enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 BTW we're going to get more than 0.1" of rain today I'm afraid lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 That band of rain over Jersey looks like it's really hauling azz..and backedge is already over ACY.. Is this just a 2-3 hour period of downpours and that's it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 SREFs show a nice spike in CAPE and shear around 21z tomorrow for BDL. dProg/dT shows a definite trend to increase instability over the last day. If we can start to get some nice dews in here and some heating we may be able to get something fun to pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 SREFs show a nice spike in CAPE and shear around 21z tomorrow for BDL. dProg/dT shows a definite trend to increase instability over the last day. If we can start to get some nice dews in here and some heating we may be able to get something fun to pop. I don't think the DPs will be a problem unless we get a dry advection source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 That band of rain over Jersey looks like it's really hauling azz..and backedge is already over ACY.. Is this just a 2-3 hour period of downpours and that's it? I can't believe how well the forecast from this weekend worked out. Temps close to what we thought... the only difference was a bit more sun earlier Monday. So far so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 That band of rain over Jersey looks like it's really hauling azz..and backedge is already over ACY.. Is this just a 2-3 hour period of downpours and that's it? I think this batch may be 2-3hrs long, but they'll probably be some more sct stuff behind it coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 I think this batch may be 2-3hrs long, but they'll probably be some more sct stuff behind it coming up. Yeah decent elevated instability lasts through the evening/night so we'll probably get some more sctd stuff to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 I can't believe how well the forecast from this weekend worked out. Temps close to what we thought... the only difference was a bit more sun earlier Monday. So far so good. Yeah and we missed the sunshine of today but pretty damn good. Will Ginx be playing softball with the senior women 65 and over league tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Interesting 00z UKMET solution carries forward the trend from the 12z run rather nicely (yesterday). Suppresses SE Coastal cyclogenesis both spatially and amplitude -wise, and that allows PP more conducive to continental conveyor of cT or c-subtropical air. 588dm height circumvallate also appears now over NYS with off-shore wind would probably herald 2 days at least of big heat. Not much GFS's derived teleconnector support for this, but fun to look at - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Yeah and we missed the sunshine of today but pretty damn good. Will Ginx be playing softball with the senior women 65 and over league tonight? It was pretty much overcast here. I think his game will be tough tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Interesting 00z UKMET solution carries forward the trend from the 12z run rather nicely (yesterday). Suppresses SE Coastal cyclogenesis both spatially and amplitude -wise, and that allows PP more conducive to continental conveyor of cT or c-subtropical air. 588dm height circumvallate also appears now over NYS with off-shore wind would probably herald 2 days at least of big heat. Not much GFS's derived teleconnector support for this, but fun to look at - Sunday-Tuesday look warm, but like the warm spell in late March..heat plume forced north from BGM-BTV-CAR. Those areas FTW it seems, but it will be warm here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Sunday-Tuesday look warm, but like the warm spell in late March..heat plume forced north from BGM-BTV-CAR. Those areas FTW it seems, but it will be warm here as well. Maybe more humid than hot here..Like 80-82 with low 60 dews while they cook 88-90 up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 The Cape could have some tstms sct about through the overnight it seems. Hopefully that LLJ can set up a little more NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Looking closer at the NAM... wow... looks pretty good. 18z has nearly 1500 j/kg of MLCape along the NY/CT border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Let's get this rain band thru here quickly this afternoon. In and out in 2 or 3 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Maybe more humid than hot here..Like 80-82 with low 60 dews while they cook 88-90 up north Well with a high close by, that's not a humid type setup. Actually higher dews will probably be collocated with the higher heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Looking closer at the NAM... wow... looks pretty good. 18z has nearly 1500 j/kg of MLCape along the NY/CT border. Yeah that's what I mean. It looked impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Yeah that's what I mean. It looked impressive. Nice having some QG forcing as well in the right entrance region of that jet over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Look at the radar erode as the rains hit the w.atl ridging over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 This rain is right on time should see this heaviest stuff from 12-2. Hopefully can pick up a quick .5 then bring on thur-tues:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Looks like some real beautiful days coming up, heat ridge really pumps up heat humidity by Mem day weekend, should be great for cookouts, swimming at the lake, hanging with friends just about perfect for everything except running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Looking closer at the NAM... wow... looks pretty good. 18z has nearly 1500 j/kg of MLCape along the NY/CT border. i like the curved hodographs... baf is very impressive on bufkit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Looks like some real beautiful days coming up, heat ridge really pumps up heat humidity by Mem day weekend, should be great for cookouts, swimming at the lake, hanging with friends just about perfect for everything except running. LOL, fail for running. I'll be lake side thinking about those poor bastards running and grinding their knees apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Looks like some real beautiful days coming up, heat ridge really pumps up heat humidity by Mem day weekend, should be great for cookouts, swimming at the lake, hanging with friends just about perfect for everything except running. Hey in the marathon wx thread we were talking about you. You may well get your wish of runners dying and collapsing..congrats and enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Hey in the marathon wx thread we were talking about you. You may well get you wish of runners dying and collapsing..congrats and enjoy LOL when aren't you talking about me? Heavy heavy rhea for those runners? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 LOL, fail for running. I'll be lake side thinking about those poor bastards running and grinding their knees apart. Adding a few more lbs to the belly while the runners are in tip top shape, extending their lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Adding a few more lbs to the belly while the runners are in tip top shape, extending their lives Congrats on looking like the old man from Poltergeist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 Radar returns are less and less impressive as the wall of water approaches, shrinking in aerial coverage and intensity is waning, still should get a couple tenths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Congrats on looking like the old man from Poltergeist. John Goodman here you come. Enjoy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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