CT Rain Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 i like the curved hodographs... baf is very impressive on bufkit Yup looks impressive at 21z if things come together as progged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 John Goodman here you come. Enjoy!! At least you'll have great parking when you are wheel chair bound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 12z gfs looks like the old 7-10 split like the nam was hinting at and okx once again has lowered rainfall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Yup looks impressive at 21z if things come together as progged GFS looked decent as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 12z gfs looks like the old 7-10 split like the nam was hinting at and okx once again has lowered rainfall amounts. Cape Cod FTW tonight I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 Cape Cod FTW tonight I think. Agreed Scooter, Nam did a nice job sniffing this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 At least you'll have great parking when you are wheel chair bound. If you sit long enough the couch will attach itself to the fatty deposits and you will have to have it surgically removed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Agreed Scooter, Nam did a nice job sniffing this out. GFS from 36 -48 hrs out hinted at it too. It kept the heaviest stuff along the south coast of RI and Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 .04 today, .07 for the event 61 degrees high today so far of 67, and that should do it unless the sun comes out later, doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 If you sit long enough the couch will attach itself to the fatty deposits and you will have to have it surgically removed Kids wheeling you across the lawn so you can fertilize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Kids wheeling you across the lawn so you can fertilize. Fire dept getting called numerous times to come get you unstuck from doorways in the house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Fire dept getting called numerous times to come get you unstuck from doorways in the house LOL what fools we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 LOL what fools we are. :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Sunday-Tuesday look warm, but like the warm spell in late March..heat plume forced north from BGM-BTV-CAR. Those areas FTW it seems, but it will be warm here as well. I see ... the reason for the NW push to the main warm conveyor is understandable in situ to the current operational run (blend) that has the SW Atlantic/near coastal SE U.S. close U/A evolving. That doesn't allow the truer Bermuda-like circulation to set up because it "scrunches" the flow up the Coast a bit. In simple terms, it's all pushing the conveyor NW. But here's what I'm stinking - I stink it's possible that feature has been overplayed a bit, and that what verifies is more at a "weakness" then a bona fide deep layer vortex. It is also possible that something of a tropical or subtropical entity gets going - should that happen, who knows ... Anyway, if this idea pans that heat plume may also be correct SE in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Looks like some of us will see 0.1" of rain in an hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 I see ... the reason for the NW push to the main warm conveyor is understandable in situ to the current operational run (blend) that has the SW Atlantic/near coastal SE U.S. close U/A evolving. That doesn't allow the truer Bermuda-like circulation to set up because it "scrunches" the flow up the Coast a bit. In simple terms, it's all pushing the conveyor NW. But here's what I'm stinking - I stink it's possible that feature has been overplayed a bit, and that what verifies is more at a "weakness" then a bona fide deep layer vortex. It is also possible that something of a tropical or subtropical entity gets going - should that happen, who knows ... Anyway, if this idea pans that heat plume may also be correct SE in time. Yeah it's not like it will be 75 here and 90 in Berlin NH, but temps may be a few warmer up there, is all I'm saying. Then there is whatever happens off the SE like you said. Either way you slice it, looks pretty darn mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Look at the radar erode as the rains hit the w.atl ridging over us. I was just noticing this, Kevin It's also not the first time this has happened this Spring season regarding these meso-beta scaled rain features rippling in the flow. There has been a kind of repeating tendency for that front-side erosion. I thought it was moisture-sink related, in that it was so dry ...but we appear to have corrected that enough - the cause appears to be synoptic, perhaps related to ridging as you suggest. I don't know, though, haven't looked at it beyond the realization that this has been happening. Ceilings here in Westborough mass are variable ...splashes of sun and with lots of cloud around. Temps up into the low to mid 70s and the air is sultry... .DP of 60. Doesn't feel at all like the warmth of recent weeks. Much more summery at the moment. We should get a nice drying after this passes in 24 hours... Then it appears the middle range wants to head into some kind of low impact heat scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 Looks like some of us will see 0.1" of rain in an hour! This is underwhelming to say the least, but welcome, especially heading into 5-9 days of drier weather and potential warmth, what a weekend shaping up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Rain continues unabated here. Funny how some were calling for .10" or less. What a complete bust. Just another example of what pros the folks at BOX are. They nailed it.Should end up with 2-3" for the period easily. Exactly as forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Should be good through 6pm I think. Maybe some shwrs towards the end of the game, but I think you're good. This will be off. The rain is moving in quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Loop the GFS op. Aside from the sub tropical feature off the southeast which I'm unsure of, I could see things playing out like that. See how the ridge is centered west with all the heat? We'll have times where it tries to come in, and then fronts come down from the north. Pattern offers the chance for over the top storms if ridging can build east enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Raining pretty good up here. Guess ill go to the gym. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 This will be off. The rain is moving in quick. Rains are really breaking up though Now just relegated to light rain with an embedded mod burst here and there. Most places under .50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Loop the GFS op. Aside from the sub tropical feature off the southeast which I'm unsure of, I could see things playing out like that. See how the ridge is centered west with all the heat? We'll have times where it tries to come in, and then fronts come down from the north. Pattern offers the chance for over the top storms if ridging can build east enough. Scooter, I can't get the radar loop on my phone right now. When will this batch of rain move out of here? Really pouring here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 I was just noticing this, Kevin It's also not the first time this has happened this Spring season regarding these meso-beta scaled rain features rippling in the flow. There has been a kind of repeating tendency for that front-side erosion. I thought it was moisture-sink related, in that it was so dry ...but we appear to have corrected that enough - the cause appears to be synoptic, perhaps related to ridging as you suggest. I don't know, though, haven't looked at it beyond the realization that this has been happening. Ceilings here in Westborough mass are variable ...splashes of sun and with lots of cloud around. Temps up into the low to mid 70s and the air is sultry... .DP of 60. Doesn't feel at all like the warmth of recent weeks. Much more summery at the moment. We should get a nice drying after this passes in 24 hours... Then it appears the middle range wants to head into some kind of low impact heat scenario. Was sunny here most of the morning..now light rains have set in, and muggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Was sunny here most of the morning..now light rains have set in, and muggy. If this was winter the same precip rate would be described as "ripping"... Now after a 3 day QPF forecast of <0.1" the rain is "light" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 If this was winter the same precip rate would be described as "ripping"... Now after a 3 day QPF forecast of <0.1" the rain is "light" And how would you categorize this rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 And how would you categorize this rain? I had 2 bouts of R+ in newington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 I had 2 bouts of R+ in newington. As we said..AWS...Light rain with some embedded elements of moderate bursts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 .16 now as this narrow band of moderate rains work thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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