am19psu Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Ahem, back on topic, Euro holds serve with a cold rain followed by a few days below normal this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 We get some flakes in the Euro Sunday night. No accumulations >2" anywhere east of the Apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 So...when's the next big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 So...when's the next big storm. euro has presidents day east coast storm like adam was saying...we get like another coating-2 inches if correct...down in va they get more according to dt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 down in va they get more according to dt Not verbatim. Too warm in the BL east of the mountains for anything more than a backside changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 euro has presidents day east coast storm like adam was saying...we get like another coating-2 inches if correct...down in va they get more according to dt Storm is Saturday night into Sunday on the euro. Not President's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Storm is Saturday night into Sunday on the euro. Not President's Day. its sunday aftn into monday early morn...but presidents day weekend i meant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Not verbatim. Too warm in the BL east of the mountains for anything more than a backside changeover. He would need a flatter solution with the northern stream hanging tougher. Meanwhile, we would need the 50/60 low to get out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 He would need a flatter solution with the northern stream hanging tougher. Meanwhile, we would need the 50/60 low to get out of the way. Seems like a number of solutions are on the table, but none of them would create a KU storm, unless you get all of the noise out of the pattern. I think a system like this past weekend with greater moisture flux is where I would place my hopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 adam and tony told me their forecasts this weekend are a blend of c000, p002, p008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 This is probably our last chance for anything significant this winter. Let's wishcast this baby towards us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 On a serious note. I know adam outlined this timeframe. Looking over the indexes this is the best shot of something half way decent. Pna is progged to go pos, nao around neutral, mjo going from phase 8 to 1, argue for an east coast storm. Some of the gefs do have a semblance of a 50/50 low. Risk here is if this does come up their really isn't anything stoping this from tracking somewhat inland. I don;t think this is going to go way inland do to the progressive nature of the pattern out west. The threat does have some legs, thats all that can be said as of right now till we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Lots of options for this weekend. Atleast this has the potential for some sort of gulf/east low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 adam and tony told me their forecasts this weekend are a blend of c000, p002, p008 I don't think you can take much off the table right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I don't think you can take much off the table right now. Yep. 0Z GFS slides a much deeper low than 12Z to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 EC brings about a half inch of precip up to TTN... but the BL is marginal at best... mostly rain at worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I don't think you can take much off the table right now. You could just pull the tablecloth out from underneath it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 EC brings about a half inch of precip up to TTN... but the BL is marginal at best... mostly rain at worst. threading the needle with the bl...sounds fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 This week is going to suck to forecast. Yes, a significant event is obviously on the table, but the Euro ensemble members show everything from a lakes cutter to an OTS solution and everything in between. The means shows a fairly robust signal for Days 5-6, but there is a lot of spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 i love the BL from hell on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 i love the BL from hell on the euro Yeah, and that, too. Track and sfc temps are going to make this a helluva forecast - and fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Key will be the 50/60 near NF...if that is stronger (GFS style) we'll have suppression city. I'd lean towards a miss and some suppression with this based on the northern stream tending to do model out better (and the GFS tends to handle the northern stream a touch better in general)...it's hardly a "lock" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Key will be the 50/60 near NF...if that is stronger (GFS style) we'll have suppression city. Just based on "past" performance with Ninas, northern stream dominance tends to win so I'd lean towards a miss and some suppression with this...it's hardly a "lock" though. That's where my head is, as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 i love the BL from hell on the euro So even if the Euro were to verify, we'd be having another 3:1 or 4:1 event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Do I dare to check the NY City forum? They are pumped! All joking aside. Any of the other recent winters if I was on the long range desk I'd be leaning 2/3rds or 3/4ths toward the Euro solution today with our forecast. This winter it has had too many Lucy Van Pelt moments to have confidence that its op solution is more likely than any other. Its gotta keep it within 96 hours and then I'll join the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 From Adam's post about the Euro ensembles, (this is far from being etched in stone too), but it does look like the GEFS clustering is tighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I for one would be more than willing to roll the dice on BL issues if we can just get the storm up the coast per the 0z Euro. The inner weenie says this is exactly how Feb 2010 looked early on (yes I know its a completely different regime etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The snow weenie in me says bring the storm up...my consicous is screw this winter, i want warmth baseball, beer and bikinis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The snow weenie in me says bring the storm up...my consicous is screw this winter, i want warmth baseball, beer and bikinis this winter you can have those items the day after a storm since it usually torches the next day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I for one would be more than willing to roll the dice on BL issues if we can just get the storm up the coast per the 0z Euro. The inner weenie says this is exactly how Feb 2010 looked early on (yes I know its a completely different regime etc). Well I shouldn't be that surprised since we have essentially had three months of March temps this winter, even with what occurred around us last weekend, its as if the expected accumulative impacts are more in line with mid March and not mid February with these systems even when they track to our southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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