chubbs Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I'd role the dice also and hope that heavy precip can overcome BL issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 There is enough discussion, I think, to move this out of the medium range thread. I'm going to move posts over here. Current news: 14/12z GFS misses well out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 12z Canadian model is a miss too....simialar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 We need to identify everyone in the NYC forum in that photo They are pumped! All joking aside. Any of the other recent winters if I was on the long range desk I'd be leaning 2/3rds or 3/4ths toward the Euro solution today with our forecast. This winter it has had too many Lucy Van Pelt moments to have confidence that its op solution is more likely than any other. Its gotta keep it within 96 hours and then I'll join the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 12z Canadian model is a miss too....simialar to the GFS. Euro is a huge whiff too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Euro is a huge whiff too You realize that by YOU having made this thread, you automatically cursed this threat, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 You realize that by YOU having made this thread, you automatically cursed this threat, right? Sorrrrrrrrrry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 You realize that by YOU having made this thread, you automatically cursed this threat, right? I think I am going to preemptively give up on this threat so that it can actually materialize...Seriously though, there doesn't seem to be much data on the side of this thing even being close to a threat for us...Is this just riding on pure weenie power at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 I think I am going to preemptively give up on this threat so that it can actually materialize...Seriously though, there doesn't seem to be much data on the side of this thing even being close to a threat for us...Is this thing just riding on pure weenie power at this point? There is still a chance - not a high one - of this system affecting us. There are some pieces in place that could send it up the coast, but the margin for error is slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Yes, in fairness, I think there were a few days last week where no model really showed anything affecting you guys Saturday, and you still got a bit of snow. Have hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Sorrrrrrrrrry Thanks Adam. this thread reminds me of the radio show days, storm canel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 its hard to "cheer for" snowstorms when its 52 degrees outside on Valentines Day. So, the 12z Euro says no, any 12z models show a hit north of the Delmarva? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 its hard to "cheer for" snowstorms when its 52 degrees outside on Valentines Day. So, the 12z Euro says no, any 12z models show a hit north of the Delmarva? Euro ensembles providing a glimmer of hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Euro ensembles providing a glimmer of hope ok. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Euro ensembles providing a glimmer of hope What do you mean by "glimmer"? One member? 5? 8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 What do you mean by "glimmer"? One member? 5? 8? Well i think there are 50 so even 5 or 8 would not be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 What do you mean by "glimmer"? One member? 5? 8? According to Will they are more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 What do you mean by "glimmer"? One member? 5? 8? Hard to tell from the H5 spag exactly how many are hits, but the ensemble mean brings 2-4 everywhere west of the Delaware in PA, then west of the Chesapeake farther south. Regardless, still a step back from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Hard to tell from the H5 spag exactly how many are hits, but the ensemble mean brings 2-4 everywhere west of the Delaware in PA, then west of the Chesapeake farther south. Regardless, still a step back from 0z. Thought the .25 only got to the PA/MD border from what i read elsewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Thought the .25 only got to the PA/MD border from what i read elsewhere? Goes farther north than that. ABE/MDT/MRB is roughly the .25 isohyet. 2-4 snow isohyet is roughly MPO/MDT/JST/MGW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Thought the .25 only got to the PA/MD border from what i read elsewhere? Maps I have bring the .25" line into NYC. All of it from hour 120-126. You can also add about .10" from light stuff after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 still it is pretty discouraging that no operation model shows the storm...at some point that becomes the reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Goes farther north than that. ABE/MDT/MRB is roughly the .25 isohyet. 2-4 snow isohyet is roughly MPO/MDT/JST/MGW What do the ensembles say about BL temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 What do the ensembles say about BL temps? They are pretty warm in the MA im not sure about Philly and NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 FWIW, considering there are BL issues with this storm, a well-respected met calling the 0z Euro run a blizzard is kinda misleading.... http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&topicid=925&groupid=8&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 FWIW, considering there are BL issues with this storm, a well-respected met calling the 0z Euro run a blizzard is kinda misleading.... http://www.liveweath...id=8&Itemid=179 No offense to anyone... but honestly, I never put Rob on par with Tony Gigi, Mike Gorse, or Glen Schwartz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 No offense to anyone... but honestly, I never put Rob on par with Tony Gigi, Mike Gorse, or Glen Schwartz. I agree 100% but there was that one dude who always referred to him as a "certain well-respected met." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 FWIW, considering there are BL issues with this storm, a well-respected met calling the 0z Euro run a blizzard is kinda misleading.... http://www.liveweath...id=8&Itemid=179 it was a headline grabber i will admit but if you read it he is NOT calling for a blizzard.......look at the "percent chances" at the bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 it was a headline grabber i will admit but if you read it he is NOT calling for a blizzard.......look at the "percent chances" at the bottom He referred to the Euro run as showing a blizzard, which it does not for reasons stated on page 1 by famartin. This has nothing to do with the headline, it was model analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 18z GFS is going to end up much further N than 12z edit: a glancing blow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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