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Pattern looks improved for possible KU event 2/18-2/25 time range

Mikehobbyst

By Mikehobbyst,
in New York City Metro

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

That would be historical to have a historical east coast storm in a historically snowless winter. :lol:

There were three winters with one big snowfall during a well below average snow season...

1875-76...11.0" storm...18.3" for the season...

1912-13...11.4" storm...15.3" for the season...

1994-95...10.8" storm...11.8" for the season...

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

There were three winters with one big snowfall during a well below average snow season...

1875-76...11.0" storm...18.3" for the season...

1912-13...11.4" storm...15.3" for the season...

1994-95...10.8" storm...11.8" for the season...

you forgot the Feb 11 - 12 83 HECS up until that storm the winter was very similar to this one so far..

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

HPC does not even mention this threat and their maps show no storm

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

400 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2012

VALID 12Z THU FEB 16 2012 - 12Z SUN FEB 19 2012

USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/12 ECMWF AND 12Z/11 ECENS MEAN FOR

THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE

EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST STABLE OF THE

GLOBAL NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS AT THE MEDIUM RANGE...OFFERING AT LEAST

SOME PROMISE THAT A RELIABLE SIGNAL LIES WITHIN ITS CONFINES. THE

GFS...GEFS MEAN...AND GEM GLOBAL ALL BREAK FROM THE SPLIT FLOW

CHARACTERISTIC OF THIS ENTIRE COLD SEASON...WITH A SUSPICIOUSLY

CLEAN LOOKING POSITIVE PNA PATTERN BY MID PERIOD. THE EUROPEAN

CENTRE SOLUTIONS HONOR THE SPLIT THROUGH THE FORECAST.

CISCO

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

you forgot the Feb 11 - 12 83 HECS up until that storm the winter was very similar to this one so far..

Central Park has 7.2" so far...1982-83 had 9.6" besides the Feb. Hecs...1994-95 had 1" besides their Feb. storm...1875-76 had their storm in February also...1912-13 got off to a good start with their storm Christmas eve...

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NJHurricane

NJHurricane

Posted
Posted

Just took a look at the 18z GFS Individual Ensembles, and most of the individual members are much more amplified than the operational.

A few have sub 980 mb lows 100 miles east of NJ.

However, the ones that do look warm.

Not sure if I buy that considering the low would be strong enough to generate its own cold air through dynamic cooling.

gonna go out on a limb here and say that the ground of weenielandia is littered with broken branches and the broken bones of weenies who keep going out on limbs supported by individual ensemble members that show the most favorable solution.

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Snow_Miser

Snow_Miser

Posted
Posted

gonna go out on a limb here and say that the ground of weenielandia is littered with broken branches and the broken bones of weenies who keep going out on limbs supported by individual ensemble members that show the most favorable solution.

I posted the 18z GEFS and stated what they showed, which included a couple individual members showing a large Nor'Easter impacting the region.

Is there a problem?

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Only for the "early winter" supplement. October 29, 2011 was not a KU storm in the sense of being 10+" in three KU cities.

Doesn't matter. It produced significant, major, and historic snows just inland from the big cities, better than most mid winter storms would produce. We had 4-8" just 20 minutes outside of Philly here, 15"+ fell in NW NJ, and well over 2 feet in interior SNE. Many KU events were not 10"+ in DCA, NYC and BOS.

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

Doesn't matter. It produced significant, major, and historic snows just inland from the big cities, better than most mid winter storms would produce. We had 4-8" just 20 minutes outside of Philly here, 15"+ fell in NW NJ, and well over 2 feet in interior SNE. Many KU events were not 10"+ in DCA, NYC and BOS.

While many were not in all three, most "winter" events WERE 10"+ in at least one of those...

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rgwp96

rgwp96

Posted
Posted

Doesn't matter. It produced significant, major, and historic snows just inland from the big cities, better than most mid winter storms would produce. We had 4-8" just 20 minutes outside of Philly here, 15"+ fell in NW NJ, and well over 2 feet in interior SNE. Many KU events were not 10"+ in DCA, NYC and BOS.

im surprised it didnt rank higher, never seen a storm with so much disruption.

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rgwp96

rgwp96

Posted
Posted

I may be wrong but I think the KU standards are 10+ inches in 3 of these cities:

  1. Washington DC
  2. Baltimore MD
  3. Philadelphia PA
  4. New York NY
  5. Boston

no heres the scale

How the NESIS value is calculated

NESIS.gif

where

n is the snowfall category, which can take one of four values:

  • 4 for snowfalls > 4" and <10"
  • 10 for snowfalls >10" and <20"
  • 20 for snowfalls >20" and <30"
  • 30 for snowfalls > 30"

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tcutter

tcutter

Posted
Posted

what are the other variables? (the "A" and the "P")

*not that i would know what to do with them but i was just curious

no heres the scale

How the NESIS value is calculated

NESIS.gif

where

n is the snowfall category, which can take one of four values:

  • 4 for snowfalls > 4" and <10"
  • 10 for snowfalls >10" and <20"
  • 20 for snowfalls >20" and <30"
  • 30 for snowfalls > 30"

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rgwp96

rgwp96

Posted
Posted

what are the other variables? (the "A" and the "P")

*not that i would know what to do with them but i was just curious

An is the area in square miles having snowfall greater than or equal to the category specified by n

Amean is 73,981, which is the mean area in square miles that received more than 10" of snow, based on a NCDC study of 30 snowstorms between 1956 and 2000.

Pn is the population in the area receiving snowfall greater than or equal to the category specified by n (taken from the 2000 U.S. Census)

Pmean is 30,333,000, which is the mean population affected by snowfall >10" in the 13 northeastern states, based on the same storm sample as Amean.

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tcutter

tcutter

Posted
Posted

thanks

An is the area in square miles having snowfall greater than or equal to the category specified by n

Amean is 73,981, which is the mean area in square miles that received more than 10" of snow, based on a NCDC study of 30 snowstorms between 1956 and 2000.

Pn is the population in the area receiving snowfall greater than or equal to the category specified by n (taken from the 2000 U.S. Census)

Pmean is 30,333,000, which is the mean population affected by snowfall >10" in the 13 northeastern states, based on the same storm sample as Amean.

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