ForecastTheFacts.Org

[CoastalWx]

we do know what the science says.

the fact you can't come up with anything concrete shows that you are regurgitating talking points.

??

[CoastalWx]

Ocean cycles do not and can not add to the energy acquired by the Earth. Only the Sun can do that.

Ocean cycles are an example of internal climate variation. They oscillate about a mean value, a mean value which is increasing due to something else.

Solar variation is shown to vary by about 1.3W/m^2 over the course of a solar cycle and estimates of historical solar variability are nearly the same. This produces no more than 0.24Wm^2 in radiative forcing and most likely only half of that. In terms of temperature, the Planck response to 0.24W/m^2 is about 0.08C. So about 0.1C of the 0.8C warming during the 20th century can be shown to be attributable to a warmer Sun.

CO2 on the other hand, when doubled produces a radiative forcing equal to 3.7W/m^2, and a Planck response at 1.2C.

Notice the difference in forcing potential?

This goes back to my point and the point of why some of the alarmist views from the late 80s and early 90s are failing. We do not live in a test tube. The Earth's climate system is far too vast and intricate to think we can duplicate the results in a lab. As time goes on, we discover new and important aspects of our climate system. We simply cannot say with a degree of certainty how much of the warming is anthropogenic. Again, why can't we all say that natural variability is a big chunk of these oscillations too? Why is it so difficult for the alarmists to say that yeah...it probably is part of the equation? If weenies like Wxtrix think they have the answer...then they have another thing coming. At least you seem to understand science. I want to know what's going on as well, but unfortunately there is too much crap on either side right now...and it's the science that fails.

[CoastalWx]

you didn't know about a landmark climate reconstruction paper, and in fact dismissed it out of hand because Mike Mann was a co-author, and I'm a weenie?

what journals do you read?

Point out where I dismissed it. Me saying that I'd read it while possibly finding it questionable is different than totally dismissing it which you just lied about. So yes, you are a weenie.

[CoastalWx]

dismissed, out of hand.

what journals do you read?

Good thing you corrected yourself. And no, dismissing out of hand is not the same has being critical of something.

Honestly, I read journals and articles occasionally from both sides..mostly articles since entire journals can be lengthy. I certainly don't read everything about climate change like some on here do. I'm aware of many of the websites out there from both sides too.

For some reason, you as well as others on here dismiss mets as being deniers. That's simply not the case. Maybe some are, but most are wide open to opinions. As meteorologists, we look at things a little differently and aren't so quick to jump to conclusion. Here is an example. Tropical ACE is low. We went I believe over 40 days without a tropical cyclone. Some people may be quick to blame something or try to figure out what this means. Other mets like myself might ask...well since the role of tropical cyclones is to transport heat energy north....how does this impact subtropical regions? Will this cause ridging...stronger heat waves..etc? There are so many things we do not know or fully understand right now. The Earth has so many checks and balances..cause and effects...etc.

[CoastalWx]

I never dismissed all mets as deniers. I noted that the majority of the in this forum are deniers. that is the second time today you have misrepresented my words.

nor did I amend my statement.

and you still fail to present science at support your contentions.

You're right..silly me. 96% deniers.

[CoastalWx]

I guess we'll agree to disagree.

[Jonger]

scientists have recreated the hurricane history of the Atlantic going back about 1000 years. not sure why this is being put up as impossible to know.

I would like you to explain how this is possible.

[The_Global_Warmer]

That isn't the way i have seen it from reading what others have said around the forum. The problem is that it's basically all one sided here it's AGW or the highway if you are not 100% on the side your considered a denier/troll etc and shouldn't be here to participate in discussion. Most also agree with AGW theory but don't believe that it's the main driver like others here so we shouldn't be allowed to participate in discussion because of this. Do you really believe that we have all the bases covered so to say on climate and understand completely all natural variability. As i stated before in my opinion the next 10-20 years will be the true test with -PDO soon to be -AMO regime and past low solar cycle. If warming continues at the same rate then i will gladly join the band wagon that it's the dominant player. In no means am i singling you out you are actually one of the better posters around here and are open to discussion.

You guys particiitate a lot. But inevitibly ignore reality or leave.

Look at the sea ice thread. For weeks it was cluttered with manipulative crap while I posted about reality.

Now what 2 maybe 3 weeks later, its completely dead and no one is asking Friv why he is negative.

No one has come back admitting there scientific fradulence.

Instead it will stay dead quiet from your side until new trolla sign up and spam the thread, then guys will creep out of the woodwork blasting 2 week old norsex graphs .

You are also making huge leaps talking about the AMO, its the most used largest under backed claim I see. it looks like its driven by the weather and sun rather than it driving anything.

Your three statements are up against millions of hours of research and data collecting.

I just can't agree that is another view, I do not feel it is supported with much.

[sup180]

Instead of trying to prove your points about global warming and spending all your life proving something that most people agree on, why don't you leave anyone who diagrees with you alone, and go out and do something about the issue instead of bashing the skeptics who don't believe in climate change and waste your whole life constantly monitoring every day that has above normal temperatures or arctic ice melts ETC. This isn't going to do anything. If you are sure that you are right then stop trying to debunk peoples theories about why the globe will cool or whatever. I agree with all you guys, but why don't you take action instead of fighting some people who will figure them selves out as the globe continues to warm and come to a conclusion that you are right. If you want to debate then do so while listening to the other side of the arguments proposal and waiting to see what will happen (when the AMO and PDO turn cold and solar activity quiets down the globe will cool), but this forum seems pretty one sided. If their is debate here where both sides listen to each other and respect each other points then i see a point but in this case there is no point in updating the forums on current global temps, sea ice levels ETC when you know you have nothing to prove. You guys spend so much time posting here and try to prove points when everyone is in agreement. Just take action already and try and help our planet, if that is indeed your purpose and not just bashing skeptics or people with other points. You need to look at the big picture here and realize what you are spending your time doing. Enjoy your life and this world while you still have time and see how everything with the climate pans out. If you want to try and fix the problems before its too late then stop being cry babies and try to do little things to help our planet and take action! We are all here for the same purpose and are all human beings!

[Jonger]

Instead of trying to prove your points about global warming and spending all your life proving something that most people agree on, why don't you leave anyone who diagrees with you alone, and go out and do something about the issue instead of bashing the skeptics who don't believe in climate change and waste your whole life constantly monitoring every day that has above normal temperatures or arctic ice melts ETC. This isn't going to do anything. If you are sure that you are right then stop trying to debunk peoples theories about why the globe will cool or whatever. I agree with all you guys, but why don't you take action instead of fighting some people who will figure them selves out as the globe continues to warm and come to a conclusion that you are right. If you want to debate then do so while listening to the other side of the arguments proposal and waiting to see what will happen (when the AMO and PDO turn cold and solar activity quiets down the globe will cool), but this forum seems pretty one sided. If their is debate here where both sides listen to each other and respect each other points then i see a point but in this case there is no point in updating the forums on current global temps, sea ice levels ETC when you know you have nothing to prove. You guys spend so much time posting here and try to prove points when everyone is in agreement. Just take action already and try and help our planet, if that is indeed your purpose and not just bashing skeptics or people with other points. You need to look at the big picture here and realize what you are spending your time doing. Enjoy your life and this world while you still have time and see how everything with the climate pans out. If you want to try and fix the problems before its too late then stop being cry babies and try to do little things to help our planet and take action! We are all here for the same purpose and are all human beings!

I see threads about alternative energy sources and carbon sequestration and it received next to no attention from the boards AGW alarmists. Its ironic that the important steps of progress are of no interest to them.

[A-L-E-K]

Instead of trying to prove your points about global warming and spending all your life proving something that most people agree on, why don't you leave anyone who diagrees with you alone, and go out and do something about the issue instead of bashing the skeptics who don't believe in climate change and waste your whole life constantly monitoring every day that has above normal temperatures or arctic ice melts ETC. This isn't going to do anything. If you are sure that you are right then stop trying to debunk peoples theories about why the globe will cool or whatever. I agree with all you guys, but why don't you take action instead of fighting some people who will figure them selves out as the globe continues to warm and come to a conclusion that you are right. If you want to debate then do so while listening to the other side of the arguments proposal and waiting to see what will happen (when the AMO and PDO turn cold and solar activity quiets down the globe will cool), but this forum seems pretty one sided. If their is debate here where both sides listen to each other and respect each other points then i see a point but in this case there is no point in updating the forums on current global temps, sea ice levels ETC when you know you have nothing to prove. You guys spend so much time posting here and try to prove points when everyone is in agreement. Just take action already and try and help our planet, if that is indeed your purpose and not just bashing skeptics or people with other points. You need to look at the big picture here and realize what you are spending your time doing. Enjoy your life and this world while you still have time and see how everything with the climate pans out. If you want to try and fix the problems before its too late then stop being cry babies and try to do little things to help our planet and take action! We are all here for the same purpose and are all human beings!

guesses as to which previously banned loser this is?

[PottercountyWXobserver]

again, you can feel free to post science to support your points.

and I'm not sure why this graph has to be posted weekly here:

Ocean cycles do not and can not add to the energy acquired by the Earth. Only the Sun can do that.

Ocean cycles are an example of internal climate variation. They oscillate about a mean value, a mean value which is increasing due to something else.

Solar variation is shown to vary by about 1.3W/m^2 over the course of a solar cycle and estimates of historical solar variability are nearly the same. This produces no more than 0.24Wm^2 in radiative forcing and most likely only half of that. In terms of temperature, the Planck response to 0.24W/m^2 is about 0.08C. So about 0.1C of the 0.8C warming during the 20th century can be shown to be attributable to a warmer Sun.

CO2 on the other hand, when doubled produces a radiative forcing equal to 3.7W/m^2, and a Planck response at 1.2C.

Notice the difference in forcing potential?

I thought you accepted the fact of natural variability. Radiative forcing is not a constant, only the long term forcing is rising, while solar variability can move temp 0.1C and ENSO by several tenths. What happens when all forcing agents phase together on the high end and the baseline has risen?

The last decade was the warmest in the instrument record. The gains have been added to the minimums and less so to the maximums. Nights have warmed more than days. Winters more than summers. Low records are being broken at twice the rate of high records. The is just the type of behavior to be expected from greenhouse warming.

BEST 3 post in the entire thread. This right here should be the basis of every argument! End/thread.

[SVT450R]

You guys particiitate a lot. But inevitibly ignore reality or leave.

Look at the sea ice thread. For weeks it was cluttered with manipulative crap while I posted about reality.

Now what 2 maybe 3 weeks later, its completely dead and no one is asking Friv why he is negative.

No one has come back admitting there scientific fradulence.

Instead it will stay dead quiet from your side until new trolla sign up and spam the thread, then guys will creep out of the woodwork blasting 2 week old norsex graphs .

You are also making huge leaps talking about the AMO, its the most used largest under backed claim I see. it looks like its driven by the weather and sun rather than it driving anything.

Your three statements are up against millions of hours of research and data collecting.

I just can't agree that is another view, I do not feel it is supported with much.

I would have to disagree with the sea ice statement all that was being pointed out was that we were on the high extent range in recent years knowing that it is thin and will eventually melt. For it being quiet we both know that this time of year isn't as much importance as the upcoming months of melt season will be wouldn't you agree. As for the AMO not sure what your trying to say it has been correlated to air temp and rainfall for over much of the northern hemisphere SST in north Atlantic and global temps. There is also a paper that shows some correlation with the AMO and Barents sea temperature of the 100-150m depth layer.

[BeastFromTheEast]

guesses as to which previously banned loser this is?

Care to respond to the great/ important things he has to say?

Or are you just interested in having a little kitty party with your pal Trixx?

lol

And people wonder why no mods and a majority of members have never take this sub-forum seriously over the years and will never take it seriously in the future...

Ice is melting faster -fact

Globe is warming overall- fact

Any one who denies the facts is a dumb fook..

But whats definitely causing all of that and who is to blame? ~N/A

And so this tired and and never ending debate will go on and on with the loser partisan trolls from both sides thinking they are doing something productive but if they instead go out and "practice what they preach" instead of wasting hours on a wx forum they would be making some significant progress with their "cause"

A great thing I try to go to and try to volunteer at every year..

http://www.greenfest...rs.org/chicago/

http://www.greenfest....org/volunteer/

Green Club/Organizations I am apart of

http://action.sierra..._src=610ZSCAC01

http://www.greenpeac...t-coal-chicago/

Some things for Friv and the others

http://twitter.com/#.../greenpeace_stl

http://members.green...f_source=topnav

http://action.sierra...in_Join_or_Give

Seriously, arguing with the Joungers and BB's of the World on a weather forum isn't going to get **** done. You're better than them. Let them wallow in their own filth and move on.. A quickly scorching planet is out there FFS!

[BeastFromTheEast]

I see threads about alternative energy sources and carbon sequestration and it received next to no attention from the boards AGW alarmists. Its ironic that the important steps of progress are of no interest to them.

http://www.americanw...-of-the-future/

Pains me to do this but +1

This is where the focus should shift to now as the science of warming, rising, and melting and what not is pretty set in stone and even if it wasn't like the deniers like to say it still is a great idea to "go green". You gotta make those changes and pitch in!!!

[BeastFromTheEast]

my job involves publishing actual science on the subject. how is that not "productive"?

Did i mention you specifically Your Highness?

You're doing some interesting and cool stuff keep it up!

But still wasting hours over time pettily arguing with the BB's and Joungers of the world is a terrible way to waste your time.. Just saying. I know its not my time and NOMB but still saddens me to see some waste their precious time in such a manner..

[OSUmetstud]

Reconstructed data is worthless wishcasting.

If its not observed, its worthless and relegated to the trashcan.

u sure we weren't talking about this post?

[OSUmetstud]

At least 1-2 and possibly several.

I'm not sure several is likely with shipping traffic...at least beyond 1900

Generally speaking, I think we've added storms even after the satellite era started. The advent of ASCAT/QUIKSCAT and higher resolution satellites horizontally and temporarily has led to more shorter fused storms.

[Jonger]

I posted a link to a peer-reviewed article that hyper-linked to a detailed methodology discussion. do you need for me to move your lips for you to read it?

I have absolutely no reason to read an article that tries to tell me that fish storms in the middle of the Pacific or Atlantic are able to be reconstructed in a 1000 year period... Sorry, I would rather watch my lawn grow.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I would have to disagree with the sea ice statement all that was being pointed out was that we were on the high extent range in recent years knowing that it is thin and will eventually melt. For it being quiet we both know that this time of year isn't as much importance as the upcoming months of melt season will be wouldn't you agree. As for the AMO not sure what your trying to say it has been correlated to air temp and rainfall for over much of the northern hemisphere SST in north Atlantic and global temps. There is also a paper that shows some correlation with the AMO and Barents sea temperature of the 100-150m depth layer.

The Sea Ice is in shambles. the ocean's are holding more heat than ever recorded, Those AMO correlations mean nothing in terms of forcing. All that means is when the AMO index is positive or negative those things have been recorded to be going on at the same time. The main issue is that the AMO is suspected to be the movement of warmer vs cooler waters. But it is also manipulated by the weather patterns as well, and more so by energy fluctuations from other sources like GHG'S and the Sun.

It isn't going to magically be able to move cool water than no longer exists, or some how shed the Atlantic of it's heat to any degree to change the path of GHG forcing as long as the GHGs continue on there current path.

You should already know with the state of ENSO the last 24 months the Earth is far to warm. The global snow anomaly went 4th lowest on record during April, which is par for the course any recent year at this time, the May one will be top 3 on record.

The super -PDO which gave the Bering record extent in April, has had no affect on the increase in Spring Heat in the Northern Hemisphere and arctic. The Barents is torching with a neutral and negative to now .118 AMO index in April.

The Spring is the most important time in the arctic, all of the data shows Spring has seen the largest increase in ice mass loss.

Greenland is already a waterfall laden soup with water pouring off the continent. We don't need anyone to help us with this. We can just look at the visible sat images and see how this continues to be stronger year after year early and earlier.

We have physically proven and completely checked reasons for these things. This is the millions of hours climate science goes to. And observable science.

If this changes, then it will be researched and studied for thousands probably hundreds of thousands of hours to prove.

Unfortunately that hasn't come to fruition in any manner yet.

[Jonger]

The Sea Ice is in shambles. the ocean's are holding more heat than ever recorded, Those AMO correlations mean nothing in terms of forcing. All that means is when the AMO index is positive or negative those things have been recorded to be going on at the same time. The main issue is that the AMO is suspected to be the movement of warmer vs cooler waters. But it is also manipulated by the weather patterns as well, and more so by energy fluctuations from other sources like GHG'S and the Sun.

It isn't going to magically be able to move cool water than no longer exists, or some how shed the Atlantic of it's heat to any degree to change the path of GHG forcing as long as the GHGs continue on there current path.

You should already know with the state of ENSO the last 24 months the Earth is far to warm. The global snow anomaly went 4th lowest on record during April, which is par for the course any recent year at this time, the May one will be top 3 on record.

The super -PDO which gave the Bering record extent in April, has had no affect on the increase in Spring Heat in the Northern Hemisphere and arctic. The Barents is torching with a neutral and negative to now .118 AMO index in April.

The Spring is the most important time in the arctic, all of the data shows Spring has seen the largest increase in ice mass loss.

Greenland is already a waterfall laden soup with water pouring off the continent. We don't need anyone to help us with this. We can just look at the visible sat images and see how this continues to be stronger year after year early and earlier.

We have physically proven and completely checked reasons for these things. This is the millions of hours climate science goes to. And observable science.

If this changes, then it will be researched and studied for thousands probably hundreds of thousands of hours to prove.

Unfortunately that hasn't come to fruition in any manner yet.

What was the last year that didn't happen? Just for my mental records, I'm trying to find the date this phenomenon began.

[WeatherRusty]

I see threads about alternative energy sources and carbon sequestration and it received next to no attention from the boards AGW alarmists. Its ironic that the important steps of progress are of no interest to them.

http://www.americanw...-of-the-future/

Speaking only for myself, I pretty much stick to discussing the scientific basis for AGW because that is where my main interest lies and where I have something cogent to offer. The tangential stuff such as what to do about it, if anything, is another matter in which I may be better suited as a reader of other's factual material. I will make an occasional contribution which is only my opinion rather than my summation of the scientific basis for AGW.

Where are the people who are well versed in matters such as carbon sequestration and alternate energy sources. I am all for those things for obvious reasons, but we can not all be well versed in every matter related to the general topic of climate change and all it's ramifications. There is a reason we have specialist in all fields of science and technology, no one person can be a master of them all.

I am not an 'alarmist' by virtue of my general acceptance of the science behind AGW, which is acknowledged by nearly every scientific institution, organization and academy on the planet.

We who follow the science find it intolerable to find misrepresentations of the science repeatedly discussed as valid reasons to doubt AGW. It's a shame that the real intellectually skeptical are lumped together with the denier machine funded by industry and ideologues. The honest skeptics are being feed garbage by an entity who's goal is to obfuscate and delay mitigation.

The stated argument that we should wait another 10-20 years to be sure is nothing but a play out of the denier play book. We will know little more than we do already concerning the physical basis for AGW since fundamental physics is not likely to change any if at all. Yes we will have more data, but the can will just as easily be pushed further down the road by those who's intent it is to delay action.

All I can do here is to try to convince those on the fence of the physical soundness of the science.

[The_Global_Warmer]

What was the last year that didn't happen? Just for my mental records, I'm trying to find the date this phenomenon began.

find the last time back to back summers lost 500 billion GT of ice mass in Greenland?

[ben4vols]

What was the last year that didn't happen? Just for my mental records, I'm trying to find the date this phenomenon began.

Friv is the king of making mountains out of mole hills. He keeps spouting the same nonsense about Greenland and completely ignores that this has happened before. The whole OHC thing is laughable as well. Then there is the downplaying of the AMO and acting as if it has no real bearing on anything.

[PhillipS]

I have absolutely no reason to read an article that tries to tell me that fish storms in the middle of the Pacific or Atlantic are able to be reconstructed in a 1000 year period... Sorry, I would rather watch my lawn grow.

Ah, the classic "Facts?! I don't need no stinkin' facts!" Who knows, if you read the paper you might actually learn something. But I guess remaining ignorant will remain your choice.

[ben4vols]

find the last time back to back summers lost 500 billion GT of ice mass in Greenland?

There was no good way to measure this back in the 1930's which was the last +AMO but Greenland temps were close to what they are now so I'm guessing there was some melting back then as well.

[Jonger]

Ah, the classic "Facts?! I don't need no stinkin' facts!" Who knows, if you read the paper you might actually learn something. But I guess remaining ignorant will remain your choice.

Fish storms create no legacy to calculate and no evidence to study. I read the premise of the article and it specifically says based on land falling storms and sediment.

[WeatherRusty]

There was no good way to measure this back in the 1930's which was the last +AMO but Greenland temps were close to what they are now so I'm guessing there was some melting back then as well.

What you seem not to be getting is that the oceans, atmosphere and land are warmer during the most recent +AMO than during the previous +AMO and that instance was warmer than the one before then.

[The_Global_Warmer]

What you seem not to be getting is that the oceans, atmosphere and land are warmer during the most recent +AMO than during the previous +AMO and that instance was warmer than the one before then.

He does get it.

He and others also know the changes are cumulative.

How many folks have been tricked by the non standardized amo graph that makes it look the same period to period?

[ben4vols]

He does get it.

He and others also know the changes are cumulative.

How many folks have been tricked by the non standardized amo graph that makes it look the same period to period?

The temps aren't all that different now than they were back in the last +AMO period. Either you don't understand history or you are trying to exaggerate for alarmist effect.

Take from HERE