okie333 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Be careful with the long range GFS 10mb forecast... I could be reading it wrong, but doesn't that mean the temps were modeled too low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 And if the 12Z GFS is right, we're gonna get it big time in February. Despite the big players not being statistically favorable for a breakdown, the frequency and intensity of remote wave breaking this year is noteworthy. This was something predicted to happen this year and the potential for a MMW is certainly higher than normal from this. But where will the cold get directed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Despite the big players not being statistically favorable for a breakdown, the frequency and intensity of remote wave breaking this year is noteworthy. This was something predicted to happen this year and the potential for a MMW is certainly higher than normal from this. But where will the cold get directed? Wherever it is at the time, but farther south and more expansive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Wherever it is at the time, but farther south and more expansive. Why wherever it is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Why wherever it is? Sorry, I should have clarified. I forgot to mention that this only holds true if the 500mb blocking sets up exactly over the North Pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 ECMWF splits 7HPA at 240. Not that this will verify or produce snow in Philly if it does verify. 10HPA and 30HPA isn't splitting yet but is weekend and clearly impacted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 AT 5hpa you can see the min Geopotentail Height on the map rises from 3292 to 3208 from 144-240hrs. I think this is what "Wave breaking means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Despite the big players not being statistically favorable for a breakdown, the frequency and intensity of remote wave breaking this year is noteworthy. This was something predicted to happen this year and the potential for a MMW is certainly higher than normal from this. But where will the cold get directed? I noticed it as well ... our best chances for cold would be for a wave 2 configuration/vortex split ... but as you alluded before, that's a rare phenomenon with a neg QBO/relative solar min come February... the clock is ticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big O Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It is unfortunate that our data is lacking in this department because the theories are sound and it makes sense. I know the last two years were quite extreme with the SAO but it would be nice to have some sort of index derived from these winds to see how strong a particular zonal state is behaving. Between the SAO extended, westerly QBO and active sun, it is no wonder we had an extended autumn this year. Do you still believe we'll have a true MMU in late Jan to early February? Regardless of your answer, can you tell me you reasoning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big O Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 MMU = MMW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suezwxman Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I noticed nobody has posted here for awhile... so, what's the status of the current SSW: another minor warming or is it a major warming? Looks like a minor warming to me as the winds at 10 hPa stay westerly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 There now appears to be a more northerly direction to the flux... at least at the lower levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I know this was posted in the medium range thread but wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 @BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Stratwarm event starting in Siberia in about 10 days similar to set up for 1984-1985 winter, but is a 2-3 week precursor to major Us cold I'm hearing from one or two mets on this board, and also reading on Joe Bastardi's Twitter account that a stratospheric warming event may soon be under way. Is this not often a precursor to a cold outbreak? JB is drawing paralells to 1984-85. Did such a warming event also occur in December 1993, foreshadowing that winter's cold January? Note that the above link is from JBs public twitter account, not his pay site. ....almost 7 weeks later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 So how's the stratosphere doing? I'm guessing by the lack of activity in this thread, it's cold and vortexy again. Oh well. Better luck next winter :-/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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