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okie333

OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

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lol yeah, the GFS is literally off the chart.

Well it looks to come down somewhat in the beginning of january or am I looking at it wrong? And didnt you just mention this earlier back jomo? Forgive my horrid short term memory lol. And man dougs blog writeup is depressing big time! Could this possibly turn into the worst winter ever for us lol...maybe

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We're all gonna be fine guys. Come January and into February this will just be a distant memory. I've seen the winter turn dramatically once the calendar rolls to January and this yr will be no exception.

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We're all gonna be fine guys. Come January and into February this will just be a distant memory. I've seen the winter turn dramatically once the calendar rolls to January and this yr will be no exception.

What's that? MoWeatherguy being positive!? ;)

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What's that? MoWeatherguy being positive!? ;)

Yep that's right JoMo. This 7-page thread needs some positive thinking. I mean, by this time last year, we were probably already around 30 pgs or so lol.

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Yep that's right JoMo. This 7-page thread needs some positive thinking. I mean, by this time last year, we were probably already around 30 pgs or so lol.

I dunno, last year was pretty lame until the Feb blockbuster storm. I'm hoping the Euro has some different ideas tonight since the 00z GFS is pretty bleh.

And yeah JB cancelling winter plus Henry saying the same is definitely good.

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I dunno, last year was pretty lame until the Feb blockbuster storm. I'm hoping the Euro has some different ideas tonight since the 00z GFS is pretty bleh.

And yeah JB cancelling winter plus Henry saying the same is definitely good.

Yeah tonite's GFS not looking good the next couple of weeks. A lot of the cold December forecasts not looking good at all this yr.

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What's that? MoWeatherguy being positive!? ;)

Ha, that's right....let's b positive. This is not a snow mecca here, so it is hard to feel ripped off when last year had two intense storms, and we have not even reached January yet.

Just in case though, I thought I would bring up the following. Believe it or not there is actually some fun that can develop in rooting for a complete shutout. I remember the infamous winter of 72-73 in Philadelphia (similar annual snow to this area) when 0.0" were recorded. Towards the mid part of February I recall snow addicts starting to pull for the near impossible - and despite a light frosting here and there - the airport got absolutely zip.

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Yeah tonite's GFS not looking good the next couple of weeks. A lot of the cold December forecasts not looking good at all this yr.

That will probably change. Euro will have a better grasp of the pattern due to it's initialization. Still kicking the crap out of everything at day 6.

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Ha, that's right....let's b positive. This is not a snow mecca here, so it is hard to feel ripped off when last year had two intense storms, and we have not even reached January yet.

Just in case though, I thought I would bring up the following. Believe it or not there is actually some fun that can develop in rooting for a complete shutout. I remember the infamous winter of 72-73 in Philadelphia (similar annual snow to this area) when 0.0" were recorded. Towards the mid part of February I recall snow addicts starting to pull for the near impossible - and despite a light frosting here and there - the airport got absolutely zip.

Wait wait wait, how is that fun? A complete shutout would be a nightmare.

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12z Euro keeps a system cutoff over the SW, drives additional energy into it and it comes out with a negative tilt around the Mon-Tues time frame. We'd have to rely on darkness to get snow probably as there is a lack of cold air but it does paint a bit of snowfall in N AR and S MO Monday night and Tues morning. All but one of the GFS Ensembles and the operational run all support a system with precip.

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Thanks for the update.

Joplinmet's latest thoughts on the winter:

http://www.koamtv.co...m-december-18th

My browser at work is blocking Gary's blog, but Doug's works just as well. Looking back as this year's pattern developed, note that a couple 2-3 week cold periods took place starting Labor Day and again staring mid-Oct. That might be off where y'all are, but these are my notes for the Tennessee Valley. Yes, I use this cycle at work. Though an overall mild winter has set up, distinct colder periods are in the cycle. Sure as the sun comes up in the East, it is happening now. However it's mainly in the High Plains and also southern Plains/Texas at the moment.

Like Doug said, look for another cold period. I'm thinking maybe even two before spring kicks in a little early. The first would be the last third of Jan. The second might be around March 1. We all know the snow stats in March, despite warming normal temps. Now I don't have much of a dog in this hunt. Just rooting a little bit for my old stomping grounds from ICT to KC. Deeper into winter the same storm track, all else equal, has colder air to work with. It might stay a little frustrating southeast of I-44, but it only takes one! Plus some have elevation to work with if a closed low goes right over head. Good luck!

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Well the positive is that my grass that I planted about a week before the tornado that burned up during the drought seems to be coming back.

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As long as we have some moisture, I can't be too disappointed. I just don't want a cold and dry winter. Rain is better than nothing.

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Joplinmet says to expect Arctic Air by the middle of January but the next few waves will be weak and moisture starved.

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Just had a friend text me that is flurrying at the mall in Joplin. Any confirmation JoMo?

Nothing here in SW Joplin. I was hoping for some flurries or snow showers when I was taking my monthly tornado pics.

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Nothing here in SW Joplin. I was hoping for some flurries or snow showers when I was taking my monthly tornado pics.

Had a quick snow shower here about 15 minutes ago. Didnt last long or even ammount to anything as the ground temps are above freezing and still warm. Was very nice to see before the balmy 50's for the weekend :( . I dont think i have ever expierienced a warm xmas eve or day but I guess theres a first time for everything. Springfield mentioning something next monday or monday night now that they are watching.

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Had a quick snow shower here about 15 minutes ago. Didnt last long or even ammount to anything as the ground temps are above freezing and still warm. Was very nice to see before the balmy 50's for the weekend :( . I dont think i have ever expierienced a warm xmas eve or day but I guess theres a first time for everything. Springfield mentioning something next monday or monday night now that they are watching.

yeah that was on the Euro but the Euro has been inconsistent with it. I mentioned it a few days ago as well.

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yeah that was on the Euro but the Euro has been inconsistent with it. I mentioned it a few days ago as well.

ahh ok...im still in a daze from shopping earlier, man the stores are a cluster f&** lol. My head is still spinning and hurting haha, time for a beer

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Yeah, looks pretty boring on the 00z GFS tonight. 00z GGEM still has the system the Euro is showing, but unsure about temps and the 00z Euro should start here shortly.

Brett Anderson from Accuwx tweeted that the new Euro Weeklies are showing very cold air pouring into W Canada around the week of the 9th. (someone else said Week 2 and Week 3 look good on the Euro as there is blocking)

HM from here says there should be a pattern change around Jan 8th.

Joplinmet says Mid-Jan things should change.

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Yeah, looks pretty boring on the 00z GFS tonight. 00z GGEM still has the system the Euro is showing, but unsure about temps and the 00z Euro should start here shortly.

Brett Anderson from Accuwx tweeted that the new Euro Weeklies are showing very cold air pouring into W Canada around the week of the 9th. (someone else said Week 2 and Week 3 look good on the Euro as there is blocking)

HM from here says there should be a pattern change around Jan 8th.

Joplinmet says Mid-Jan things should change.

Good I hope it all verifies! This is boring so far lol. Springfield mentioning some light snow/mix maybe from late christmas evening into monday morning, but over to rain monday morning. Wouldnt that be cool if we could get some more flurries christmas night lol. Dont know when I'll be back on here so merry christmas to you and everyone else on the forum!!! :snowman::santa:

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