Wx 24/7 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Hi everyone. I am new member here. I hope to contribute to this community in some way as weather is a guilty pleasure of mine. I reside in Fort Smith by the way. Welcome to forums. We are a rather active bunch when the weather gets cold, snowy, and/or icy! I read today where one of the 40/29 mets (out of Fayetteville) was jumping on the Tues PM/Wed snow train. Now I read Ted Keller's post and he thinks we could have some accumulation then, too! There's something else to keep an eye on in the near term it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Welcome to the board FSM. When's the next missed storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Next one is with the developing storm over the eastern US. Should be on the developing stage of it with some light snow or flurries possible Wednesday according to the NAM, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Well if the NAM says it is so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 lol Tulsa "Bullseye" if you call it that. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Thanks for the welcome everyone! Wednesday does look interesting. Local mets seem persistent in thinking we are going to get some wintery precipitation than. Definitely ready for some snow after this crazy spring/summer we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 According to the latest RUC, a few people in a swath from around SPS-ADM-MLC-FSM are in for quite a shock when they look out the window in a few hours. Radar trends certainly support significant precipitation, and though current T/Td obs are a bit warm, the model forecast soundings are a slam-dunk for snow by 12z in a lot of that corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 ^ I saw that after looking at the radar 20 minutes ago. I think we might be in for a surprise. Especially if the cold air gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 ...and the cold air has arrived. Flurries falling here in Ft. Smith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Very light dusting of sleet/snow reported around the Ozark,AR region which is just east of Fort Smith. Hasn't started yet in the Fayetteville/Bentonville area yet but should very soon according to radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArkieOkie Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 ...and the cold air has arrived. Flurries falling here in Ft. Smith Welcome! We've got a light rain/snow mix here right now. My husband was on Wheeler Ave. in the Fort a few minutes ago and said it was coming down pretty hard. Local mets are saying that the roads should stay fine and that it might accumulate on the grass a little. I'll take that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=ARZ029&warncounty=ARC131&firewxzone=ARZ029&local_place1=Fort+Smith+AR&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory ^thx! Yea it is coming down really hard.Now under a WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Nothing much on the op GFS run this morning to watch for awhile. These storms passing to the south like this still seem strange for a La-Nina. I just hope we can get one to spin up, or at least a less positively tilted trough so we can get some more substantial snow behind the front. Areas like New Mexico typically don't see a ton of snow during La Nina due to the systems passing to their north, but this year may be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Not even flurries here. All stayed south and east. At least its gonna be cold for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Hey guys, After the crazy events of this morning that the models never did pick up on do you think this next disturbance over NM is going to surprise us as well? Springfield's afternoon discussion said it is moisture starved so less than 1/2 inch is about it, at most. Any thoughts on this? Maybe the models aren't going to forecast this one well either. Here's for hoping... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Amazing how the forecast changes so rapidly lol. Now back to the chance of light snow for after midnight and tom. morning and up to a half inch of snow accums. Models handling this oh so poorly is seems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It's not going to be much if anything happens probably. Dry atmosphere. I need something to track, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It's not going to be much if anything happens probably. Dry atmosphere. I need something to track, lol Yea its just falling apart as it arrives, way to dry. Got an addiction there huh lol, J/k man. At least its a safe addiction haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Got some flurries here off and on since about 1:30am. Springfields late evening writeup says up to an inch for the northern zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I guess the lower layer finally saturated , we got a heavy dusting here in the northeast side of Joplin, with blowing snow on roads what about your side of town Jeff ? and the rest of our swmo friends this morning ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 We got some snow in Joplin. A dusting of snow, but it still counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Any potential snow storms in the next 2 weeks for our area? I have a feeling this is going to be a boring winter:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 There's something in the medium range to watch on this morning's GFS. This will change a ton of times leading up to the event of course and may not even happen but... You can see a separation of the streams in the 500 MB chart here. The southern storm (very el-ninolike) is neutrally tilted with another piece of energy in the N Stream across Washington down to Utah. If the N piece was a little faster and if it were to phase, than that would be a big storm system. As it is modeled though, the southern wave gets kicked out by the northern wave and it will probably remain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Why are we getting so many el nino storms? such as above and the New Mexico storm. (THAT's VERY EL NINO PATTERNISH) I thought this was la nina which means our area gets more snow than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Picked up a dusting here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 An update on post #113 above. After losing the solution last night, the 12z GFS is kicking the energy out of the SW to our west which will give us rain. The 00z Euro shows a similar solution but farther north. The energy over CA in the above image digs in and eventually forms a storm over NE Arkansas. Again have issues with cold air lagging pretty far behind, but it's something to watch as the GFS deepens that storm as it pushes it NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Springfield has a small 20 percent chance for light snow/flurries here for tonight. Only gonna be short lived and very minor accums if anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 It's a strong closed low with a negative tilt on the 12z GFS medium range... passing to our west..... :-\ You would think there would be a ton of snow to the N and NW of that.... nope.. too warm. While I'm sure dynamic cooling would help change it to snow, you would expect a lot more cold air this time of year. :-\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 It's a strong closed low with a negative tilt on the 12z GFS medium range... passing to our west..... :-\ You would think there would be a ton of snow to the N and NW of that.... nope.. too warm. While I'm sure dynamic cooling would help change it to snow, you would expect a lot more cold air this time of year. :-\ Yea man the temps are all over the place so far, warm cold warm cold. Its just another year in the ozarks lol. Hell if we dont get one big massive storm like we did last season this one could be even worst? A snow drought maybe idk. Dougs blog and writeups sound bleh so far, he dont sound to excited about this winter season. He does have a mention of a possible storm around xmas eve/xmas day for rain, ice or snow or all of the above lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Medium-Long range GFS is looking interesting this morning. Lots of continuity with position of features from the 00z GFS run, which is nice to see. The first storm system I noted above will still pass to our west which will give us rain. There is a second storm system that will drive down behind the first, also coming down is a cold blast at the same time. This looks like the typical blast down the Plains along the Rockies. The position of this system is still up in the air, the earlier model runs have been driving it into Mexico which results in not much around here. Todays 12z GFS didn't drive it as far south, which results in an overrunning type situation....... After that, the entire system comes out: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.