JoMo Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Don't those snowfall maps assume 10:1 ratios though? Yes, the snow maps are 10:1 ratios. I think the 00z Euro was showing 3-3.5" for SW MO last night so it knocked about 1" off (or 0.1" of QPF) but due to the Arctic air with the front, the ratios will be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 NWS Tulsa's snow map still shows 4.3 inches for Rogers/Bentonville area. I'm posting from my phone so I can't include the image easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I hope they're off by about 50 miles too far northeast. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Thanks JoMo. This storm looks odd. Very seldom do we see storms where the precip "blows up" in Central/Eastern Arkansas after the low passes through OK and Western Arkansas. The 12z GFS MSLP map shows the low tracks from Texarkana to Pine Bluff to Nashville. The heavy precip explodes in NE Ark towards Memphis/Cape Girardeau. Not saying that can't happen but this isn't typical from what I remember. I have only my gut and previous experience to back this up. Anyone else have thoughts on what the GFS/NAM are showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Thanks JoMo. This storm looks odd. Very seldom do we see storms where the precip "blows up" in Central/Eastern Arkansas after the low passes through OK and Western Arkansas. The 12z GFS MSLP map shows the low tracks from Texarkana to Pine Bluff to Nashville. The heavy precip explodes in NE Ark towards Memphis/Cape Girardeau. Not saying that can't happen but this isn't typical from what I remember. I have only my gut and previous experience to back this up. Anyone else have thoughts on what the GFS/NAM are showing? It's a positive tilt system so the precip occurs out ahead of it. The surface low is just a weak reflection, the main driver of the precip is the sharpening mid level energy (see the 500 MB vorticity map) that punches in from the west as it strengthens. Now if this was a negative tilt wrapped up system, you'd get precip being thrown back behind into the cold air and we'd probably have a pretty big snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Well most of us on here will be on the sidelines as far as a big storm this time around as it has eastern MO on up thru the Ohio valley in it's sights. Win some and lose some. But I think the long range is still loaded with a lot of potential and it's just a matter of time before we're on here talking big totals for our backyards. Next weekend has a little of my attention if we can keep enough cold air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Here's a quick course on the tilts of systems taken from the 00z GFS last night. This first image is of a positive tilt cutoff over the Baja and NW Mexico. You can tell that it's cutoff because the the 564 and 556 lines are complete circles and you can see the energy bypassing to the north of it. If you look at the 570 line, it is open, and if you look at it like an open mouth, the open part is towards the upper right. So it's basically tilting forward or positive... like " / " We advance a few hours and our cutoff is heading into SW Texas. It is still closed since the 564 line is still a complete circle. If you look at the 570 line, you can see the open part of the 'mouth' is pointing nearly straight up. This is a neutral tilt. Like " | " As we advance a little farther in time. Our cutoff is now in central Texas. The open end of the 570 line is now tilting backwards or to the left. This is a negative tilt. Or like " \ " In positive tilt systems the precipitation is usually out ahead of the system. Neutrally and especially negative tilt systems feature more precipitation behind, in the cold air. In the above example, the system is going negative due to the energy upstream in Nevada and California. We would be hoping that this energy would 'phase' with the cutoff, strengthening it and pulling more precip farther NW into the cold air. The only problem with this example is there is no really cold air to tap into with this system and there isn't going to be a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Thanks for the education. You're hired!!!! Lol! Now maybe we can put that to use soon with a good neg tilt system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I still think this will be a solid snow event for areas of SW MO and parts of N AR. Don't overlook this event. To do so would be a bit an oversight of a decent winter event. Of course, it is deepening just east of us... but I am still liking our odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Of note, I like that the mets at Tulsa NWS are keeping with good judgement in their AFD by stating the models warm us too quickly mid-week. A little snow cover will go a long way to impact temps and events through the next 7-10 days. Definitely something worth noting and keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Doug's thoughts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 His thoughts pretty closely mimic mine: 1-3" along the I-49 corridor, 2-5" along the MO 97 corridor, with 3-6" along the US 65 corridor. NWS TSA seems a bit more aggressive than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 His thoughts pretty closely mimic mine: 1-3" along the I-49 corridor, 2-5" along the MO 97 corridor, with 3-6" along the US 65 corridor. NWS TSA seems a bit more aggressive than I expected. May be going higher in reference to the colder air/higher ratios than just the standard 10:1. Who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 May be going higher in reference to the colder air/higher ratios than just the standard 10:1. Who knows... There are some indications from some of the in house models as well as higher ratios that this could be a little bit higher. I am a bit suspect of that, but with that said... I know some winters we would be excited with a snowfall like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 There are some indications from some of the in house models as well as higher ratios that this could be a little bit higher. I am a bit suspect of that, but with that said... I know some winters we would be excited with a snowfall like this. Oh definitely. No complaints here. Still plenty of time for more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 There are some indications from some of the in house models as well as higher ratios that this could be a little bit higher. I am a bit suspect of that, but with that said... I know some winters we would be excited with a snowfall like this. Depends on how cold it gets.... and I'm excited for this small amount since there is no other snow on the horizon. The next system will be rain or freezing rain, and after that, we may have to wait a bit before things become colder once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 00z Euro has 10:1 accumulations at... 2.0" Chanute, KS 2.2" Bartlesville, OK 1.6" Tulsa, OK 2-2.5" or so in NW Arkansas. 3.1" Joplin 3.2" Monett 3.8" Springfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Advisories are now out area wide and it appears that the NAM has also caught up with the globals. Good to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 yeah the 12z NAM/GFS increased precip amounts some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Update from NWS KC Office: Have delayed the southward development of snow into the CWA. Current band of light snow from southeast NE across southern IA tied to the passing of the northern shortwave with elevated frontogenesis. 12z NAM and RAP keep QPF north of Highway 36 through 21z and based on current radar trends and expectations seems reasonable to delay snow development for most of the CWA. 12z NAM has also jumped onto the previous runs of the GFS in developing two separate bands of snow...one across northern MO associated with the elevated frontogenesis and a second and likely heavier band tied to the chunk of energy and speed max diving southeast into the Central Rockies. This energy is expected to spread into KS/OK this evening with a significant PV anomaly digging into the base of the deepening upper trough. Have also increased snow amounts across northern MO due to this first band which is expected to from by mid afternoon. Have also kept categorical PoPs longer over the southeastern CWA through the night. Could see some light rain across the far southern counties this afternoon with temperatures well above freezing. Shouldn`t be much nor last long as the cold front will push through by early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 00z Euro has 10:1 accumulations at... 2.0" Chanute, KS 2.2" Bartlesville, OK 1.6" Tulsa, OK 2-2.5" or so in NW Arkansas. 3.1" Joplin 3.2" Monett 3.8" Springfield 12z Euro 10:1 accumulations: Chanute 2.0" Bartlesville: 2.0" Tulsa: 2.1" Joplin 3.3" Monett: 4.0" Springfield: 4.4" Fayetteville: 2.0 Far NW Arkansas: 3-3.5" or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Tks JoMo for keeping us updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Looking better every run. Thanks JoMo!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 HRRR snow at 3 AM Temps hanging in the mid to low 20's where it's snowing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Winter Storm Warning brought back west a tier of counties and includes the Springfield metro. Really think that might still be a hair too far east with winds and cold. We shall see how trends continue tonight. Wind Chill Warning is now up for -20º to -30º wind chills Sunday night into Monday. That is not something you see every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Grids have 1-2" tonight here and 1-2" tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Yah SGF has increased tots across the board. Up to 4-6 now for Barry Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Go Chiefs! It seems like the models are playing catch up with the QPF amounts. Hopefully this system will linger a little longer and we'll all get more snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Go Chiefs! It seems like the models are playing catch up with the QPF amounts. Hopefully this system will linger a little longer and we'll all get more snow! Lol. They better get their act together pretty quickly. They're running out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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