JoMo Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Larry Cosgrove had a post a little earlier this morning regarding the upcoming storm around Jan. 2-4. He believes it is going to be a disturbance "from Northern Mexico into the Gulf Coast and then up and off the Atlantic shoreline." He states some detailed facts to support his theory. Says the Operational GFS isn't grabbing ahold of the pattern yet so the Ensembles need to be watched closely. If you don't follow Larry on FB or Twitter I would recommend it. He's very thorough and always responds to what people post which is nice to see. Only 1 ensemble member has much of anything...... P004.... otherwise... meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 So you're saying there's a chance. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I have a favor to ask. Can anyone post the December 1982 temperature anomalies. I can't seem to find it anywhere and was needing it for some climatology stuff I was researching. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I have a favor to ask. Can anyone post the December 1982 temperature anomalies. I can't seem to find it anywhere and was needing it for some climatology stuff I was researching. Thanks. This site has all the climate maps you could ever ask for: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/getpage.pl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Thanks man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The 00z models appear to be wanting to move back to a -PNA in the long range. If it holds up, we should be getting back to the same kind of pattern we had back in November and December with the cold air surging back into the western and central US in about 11-15 days or so. The 00z Euro control run had blocking over the top. I looked at the Euro weeklies and they looked like a -PNA type setup as well. The control run was quite crazy with storms dropping into the SW and ejecting out every few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 That's good news. Was kind of wondering if it would happen or not. If anyone remembers, we had a similar period to this in late October before things really started kicking into gear in November. Was thinking today that this may be just another piece of the pattern before we really get into the core of winter. It will be awesome if it works out that way but it will also be brutally cold if there is any comparison to the last pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Do you all ever sleep!? LOL... just kidding. I, for one, will be enjoying the next two days of warmer weather. Still looks like we may squeeze some flurries out of the next blast of arctic air on Sunday. Won't be anything earth shattering, of course, but keeps us at bay until the pattern decides to produce some more winter precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Sleep is for Spring, Summer and early fall... although I don't sleep much with the thunderstorms in Spring any longer. It generally looks like things are on track. The second half of winter looks like it will probably begin around or after Jan 7th or so. The 00z Euro ensembles and control run were generally cold in the long range with a western trough look, just like back in Nov into Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Yeah, long range definitely looks more wintery again... about the time we get back in school. ha ha I enjoyed this afternoon with the temps in the 50s. Was outside a bit and felt great. Tomorrow will feel like a slap in the face. Maybe we can wring out a few flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The 00z GFS and 00z Euro could not be farther apart at hour 240. The GFS has a trough in the west while the Euro has a trough in the east and NW flow for us. Edit: One of the main differences is the troughing near Alaska on the Euro vs ridging on the GFS. This spikes the EPO on the Euro up into positive territory pretty rapidly. The Euro has did this numerous times since November and nearly every time it was wrong. This is not to say the GFS's depiction of things is correct either as it went pretty extreme as well on the western trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The 12z Euro isn't out yet, but the 12z GGEM is showing frozen precip with a system on Jan 5th or so to at least Jan 8th or the end of the run as it drops a low into the SW and it slowly meanders out. Now I'm interested to see the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I may buy into that thought. Lol. I'm ready for something to happen before the hellish cold gets here in mid-late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 12z Euro has a system that produces frozen precip as well on Jan 5th or so. Overall it looks more like the GFS than the GGEM as it doesn't cut the system off. Very cold after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 12z Euro has a system that produces frozen precip as well on Jan 5th or so. Overall it looks more like the GFS than the GGEM as it doesn't cut the system off. Very cold after that. Any extremely early totals on that one? Locations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 12z Euro has a system that produces frozen precip as well on Jan 5th or so. Overall it looks more like the GFS than the GGEM as it doesn't cut the system off. Very cold after that. JoMo is it looking on the GGEM s freezing rain or a snow event with that one for here so far ( Joplin Mo) ? curio us on your thoughts ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 It's too early to tell on precip type or amounts since it's more than 7 days away and will probably change. Both the 12z Euro control run and Euro ensembles have extremely cold air coming in with that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 It's too early to tell on precip type or amounts since it's more than 7 days away and will probably change. Both the 12z Euro control run and Euro ensembles have extremely cold air coming in with that though. Yeah, the cold air is a given... or as much so as it can be at this point. The bigger question is will be it be rain to cold or snow/ice to cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The 00z Euro is a bit farther east with the snow this run, mostly over N AR and SE MO. Other than that, it's cooooooold. And it looks like the northeast US is going to turn into a glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Lol. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 12z models say there might be a chance for a little light snow on Wed evening into Thurs morning depending on the track of the system. GGEM would be north of us, while the GFS would hit primarily SE KS into parts of SW MO and the Euro has a little bit for everyone before more forms over N Arkansas and points east. The Jan 5th or so system may be southeast of all of us. That forms into a big storm for the northeast and Canada with a 950 MB low... After that, it's cold, but we are on the western edge of the coldest air and it starts to moderate on Wed the 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looks like some of us may cash in on a nice light snow Wednesday night into Thursday. Doesn't look extremely heavy... but should put down an inch or maybe a bit more. How far south it treks is the big question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 There's a model fight in the Day 11-15 range as the Euro wants to warm things up due to the EPO rising to positive, and some other factors with the PV, while the GEFS says no. In the Euro case it looks to be transient and not something that's going to lock in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looks like some of us may cash in on a nice light snow Wednesday night into Thursday. Doesn't look extremely heavy... but should put down an inch or maybe a bit more. How far south it treks is the big question. Tulsa NWS seems to like the idea pretty well and they've been pretty good this year so I'll have to agree with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 12z models say there might be a chance for a little light snow on Wed evening into Thurs morning depending on the track of the system. GGEM would be north of us, while the GFS would hit primarily SE KS into parts of SW MO and the Euro has a little bit for everyone before more forms over N Arkansas and points east. The Jan 5th or so system may be southeast of all of us. That forms into a big storm for the northeast and Canada with a 950 MB low... After that, it's cold, but we are on the western edge of the coldest air and it starts to moderate on Wed the 8th. There seem to be some conflicts now as to whether a SE ridge will set up or not and push the air/system further west. If it does, could stall a storm out or slow it down over the area before sending it up the Mississippi river valley. Am I correct or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 There seem to be some conflicts now as to whether a SE ridge will set up or not and push the air/system further west. If it does, could stall a storm out or slow it down over the area before sending it up the Mississippi river valley. Am I correct or no? Which system? The Jan 5th'ish one? It could setup farther west towards us still. Curious to see what tonights model runs show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Which system? The Jan 5th'ish one? It could setup farther west towards us still. Curious to see what tonights model runs show. Yeah. The 5th. Sorry for not specifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Some light New Years snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 And some more light snow with the 5th and 6th system on the 00z GFS....... then there have been some changes.... as everything has appeared to shift west.. when it comes to the PV in Canada, etc... That's interesting, have to see what happens with the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 00z GGEM really piles the snow up over the next 10 days over mainly the northern areas. Too bad this won't come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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