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12/15-12/16 MV/GL snow event?


Thundersnow12

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Still dont know If I believe the GFS/GEM or the euro/ukmet/nam

The GEM has done pretty well in this range lately, so it's definitely nothing to sneeze at. The Euro sounds like it's pretty similar to the NAM, which sort of sounds bizarre lol. I think tonight's runs should all converge on a solution, so we should know by then. Starting to feel good about 2-3" prospects around here. The GFS being the wet model is somewhat surprising. That kind of makes me wonder if the 00z NAM will come in much wetter than previous runs...

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It's going to be another close call here. The NAM and GFS both give me about 0.3" of precip, which would be 3-4 inches of snow, but the edge is very sharp. If the snow band is 20 miles farther northeast I might get an inch.

You are definitely on the edge again if you consider the NCEP guidance, but this time you are on the good side of the guidance as I don't see this going N....if anything it will go a tad S which would be even better for you.

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It's going to be another close call here. The NAM and GFS both give me about 0.3" of precip, which would be 3-4 inches of snow, but the edge is very sharp. If the snow band is 20 miles farther northeast I might get an inch.

The southern edge doesn't look nearly as sharp as the superclipper a few weeks ago. There's definitely a quick drop off, but not the ridiculous sharp edge like last time. I think even if the heavier stuff misses northeast, you'll still pick up something decent. Can't wait to see the new runs here in a few hours.

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09z to 15z SREF mean took an oh-so slight S jog, not much but noticeable after it had mostly been holding steady on its track.

Not sure if it's been mentioned, but FWIW the 18z GFS looked just a hair south as well. The 12z RGEM looks like the big outlier to me at this point.

Edit: Just looked at the 18z RGEM, and it looks similar to the 12z version.

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Not sure if it's been mentioned, but FWIW the 18z GFS looked just a hair south as well. The 12z RGEM looks like the big outlier to me at this point.

Edit: Just looked at the 18z RGEM, and it looks similar to the 12z version.

This forecast is real tough. All of these predominant frontal events are tough. The super clipper was a perfect example of models being completely wrong all the way up until the event (NCEP guidance). Either way, I am leaning towards a more S track (not much more south though) for three reasons...first the strong arctic high in place along the northern boundary of this system....secondly the large retrograding upper low...and third because of the strong westerly cross-barrier flow across the Rockies which will support strong lee troughing across the central/southern plains...and the NAM actually models this better because its higher resolution can better simulate a mountain response. That would support something along the lines of ECM/UK and NAM (but shifted N). I have a feeling NAM, based off its trends, will shift N at least one more run...and with the SREF/GFS slight south trend....a track mostly along 15Z SREF but shifted only a tad S seems like a decent bet.

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...I have a feeling NAM, based off its trends, will shift N at least one more run...and with the SREF/GFS slight south trend....a track mostly along 15Z SREF but shifted only a tad S seems like a decent bet.

That sounds pretty reasonable. I can't see the NAM, Euro and others shifting as far north as the RGEM. I also can't really see the RGEM shifting as far south as the NAM. Definitely makes sense they would compromise more in the middle of the current spread. The latest SREF lends even more credit to that way of thinking. The SREF seems to be doing pretty well so far this season from what I've seen. Hopefully we'll see QPF bump up a bit if the NAM shifts to the north. The SREF looks a little juicier than the NAM, and more along the lines of the Euro and GFS.

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Per Harry about the 12z Euro:

But seriously.. 12z euro did not budge much on track but did add a little more QPF in IA back up into MN/ND.. 1-3/2-4 in your hood down that way perhaps? The .10+ and greater runs from Chicago to Ft Wayne. Less/nadda north of that line.

Euro only deliver 0.11" of liquid for me. No matter how sweet the ratios, I won't make 2".

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NAM came a tad north, 12z-18z GEM came south. I think the 21Z sref has it about right except the northern edge of QPF will be a hard cutoff. I doubt 0z ECM/UK/GFS will change previous thinking.

I wouldn't mind the GFS, really dont want to be on the north side of the cut off but the NAM is showing that. very tough forecast

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The NAM shows a few narrow bands of 0.40-0.50" mixed in with the larger >0.25" band. With such tight banding setting up I wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated heavy amounts of over 6". For the most part though it looks like a solid 2-4" in the main band. Someone could cash in on a local heavy amount tomorrow night. I'm still thinking 2-3" here, but if the GFS and GEM continue to come in juicy, then we could be looking at 3-4".

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