_AR_ Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 NW trend time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 here is JI's model, shows what the gfs had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 So is the UKMet showing snow, too, or a mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 GGEM has a boatload of QPF.... And it bombs to 979 mb, get this baby a toward a west shift... GGEM hasn't met a storm it doesn't like bombing late in the time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 GGEM has a boatload of QPF.... And it bombs to 979 mb, get this baby a toward a west shift... 100 or so miles of wiggle room 144 hours to go. Id like to see the GGEM and Euro ensembles once they;re availble. I liked the spread on the gfs ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 100 or so miles of wiggle room 144 hours to go. Id like to see the GGEM and Euro ensembles once they;re availble. I liked the spread on the gfs ensembles Yeah, 100 miles is basically nothing with 6 days left.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 12Z KMA Hour 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 trends definitely aren't DISCOURAGING this aftn. Could be better but with the ukie on the NW edge and the GFS on the SE edge I'm not too unhappy with where we're at (for some reason I'm loving the double negatives today) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 So is the UKMet showing snow, too, or a mix? I'd say it might mix the coast itself and rain in SNE, but those saying it has a rain solution here are not correct...at least if you don't live on the immediate shore or LI. Look at the orientation of the H5 trough at 120 hours. The UKMet probably actually hooks the system around and deepens it with the phase with the Polar Vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 trends definitely aren't DISCOURAGING this aftn. Could be better but with the ukie on the NW edge and the GFS on the SE edge I'm not too unhappy with where we're at (for some reason I'm loving the double negatives today) I agree with this post. Obviously I'd like all the models to have the ideal coastal solution but that almost never happens this far out. I'm just happy to see model consensus that we are close to our first big hit of the year. If it doesn't pan out at least it's going to be a fun week reading the forum and watching the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 I'd say it might mix the coast itself and rain in SNE, but those saying it has a rain solution here are not correct...at least if you don't live on the immediate shore or LI. Look at the orientation of the H5 trough at 120 hours. The UKMet probably actually hooks the system around and deepens it with the phase with the Polar Vortex. almost a carbon copy of what the 12z euro had yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 NOGAPS has it now too, but just off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 almost a carbon copy of what the 12z euro had yesterday I'm sure I wasn't the only one who saw the changes aloft on todays 12z Euro. Check out the heights at 108 hours 12z compared to 120 hours at last nights 00z. Really a tremendous improvement in every way imaginable at that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 heres the 12z nogaps, i think even thats further northwest than the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 I'm sure I wasn't the only one who saw the changes aloft on todays 12z Euro. Check out the heights at 108 hours 12z compared to 120 hours at last nights 00z. Really a tremendous improvement in every way imaginable at that level. we just got to get that low to slow down, or that vortex to phase faster. I dont like how this storm seems like its right on storm number 1 heels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 trends definitely aren't DISCOURAGING this aftn. Could be better but with the ukie on the NW edge and the GFS on the SE edge I'm not too unhappy with where we're at (for some reason I'm loving the double negatives today) Agreed. Who wants to be in the bull's eye at this range? That never seems to work out. Let the models waffle back and forth over the next few days. I'll start worrying about details in the Thursday/Friday time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 This thread is heading towards 1000 replies so we are going to take the topic into the Talking Points thread. Please try and keep your posts well rounded and well thought out. Do your best to avoid one word posts or posts with an image and nothing else. Thanks dudes, think snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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