OHweather Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Will post more hopefully tomorrow and definitely Wednesday...have been swamped with finals/work the last few days, almost done. Anyways, it appears support for an east based -NAO is increasing with both the GFS/ECM ensembles suggesting one developing within the next week. Both models support lower than normal heights over the Aleutians, suggesting a neutral to slightly positive PNA. Both models support the polar vortex shifting into the eastern half of Canada, and there appears to be decent agreement on energy moving out of the southwest around the 19th and then proceeding ENE. The above teleconnections suggest near normal temps over N. Ohio with the cold anomalies stretching from the Rockies through the Plains, upper GLs and New England. With the shallow nature of the arctic airmass to the south/west of the PV running into the SE ridge, a good overrunning surface will be established somewhere over the GL/OV by the 20th, perhaps setting the stage for a wintry weather event. My guess is NE OH will be very close to any rain-mix-snow line (perhaps starting mixed then rain then ending as light snow) but a wide array of solutions is being shown and remains possible. It's too bad the lake effect posts were confusing. Now instead of this thread with about 10-15 posters, we have two threads with like 6 people posting in each one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 So I guess this is the northern Ohio thread now ...or the thread to talk about any weather that doesn't directly hit the Columbus/Newark areas. I feel for all the landscaping/plowing companies who are hurting right now. This morning, I noticed several sidewalks and parking lots were salted for nothing more than the typical morning frost that builds up on a clear calm evening. Yeah, I guess this is the Mansfield north thread. I understand that the LES talk is not of interest to some... but its been the only thing to discuss this year in terms of snowfall. Oh well. We have enough posters to keep this thread active. There's alot of salt on the parking lots. Those guys must be desperate. Nothing like wasting salt to run up the costs on your customers. The sun starts setting later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 12z GFS went the way of the 0z Euro and several 0z GFS ensemble members. 12z GGEM trended that direction as well, with the 12z GFS/GGEM and 0z Euro showing the potential for a moderate accumulating snowfall with the overrunning/weak low pressure around next Tuesday. This still has much time to trend, however. I do like the pattern being shown as the storm progresses east however, with the PV shifting to around Hudson Bay supressing any storm somewhat, and with ridging trying to pop up over the western part of the continent. Also like the more neutral NAO look being shown. This could be a situation where there is a loose, drawn out mess but plenty of moisture as the STJ gets involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I bet you if we could see the EURO beyond 240, this'd be a hell of an Apps runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I bet you if we could see the EURO beyond 240, this'd be a hell of an Apps runner SNE met backs me up The Euro has a phasing super bomb extrapolated to D11 off of D10 ..... headed for Buffalo Even if only a dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 SNE met backs me up Even if only a dream. Lock it in, I have a morning flight on the 23rd. I expect to miss the best storm of the season that weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I really don't have an explanation for why I feel this way, but the last 4 days I've been extremely optimistic for next week's chances overall. I really haven't felt so optimistic in a long, long time (not even last winter). Something just feels right about this week ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I really don't have an explanation for why I feel this way, but the last 4 days I've been extremely optimistic for next week's chances overall. I really haven't felt so optimistic in a long, long time (not even last winter). Something just feels right about this week ahead. I agree. I think we are beginning to see light at the end of the tunnel and the "about damn time" switch into winter weather. 2009/2010 had a really slow start to winter as well, and abruptly switched into snow mode just after Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Ouch. Even it turns out to be generally warm with below average snow, doesn't mean you can't have a decent storm or two, which will probably end up defining winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Ok, time to get a little excited for this weekend…may be the biggest snow of the year for many folks if this pans out as it appears possible… On Saturday, two pieces of upper level energy will rotate through…one during the morning, with a decent increase in moisture but rather modest upper support: 850mb temps will be around -8 to -10C during the day Saturday with a WNW low to mid level flow. Given modest upper support, am thinking most areas will see dry or only see some light snow showers, but this will probably be enough to get the lake going a little bit by early Saturday…maybe an inch in the Snow Belt through late Saturday afternoon? The next lobe of energy will contain slightly deeper moisture and some decent dynamics as well for Saturday evening… The Euro (shown), GFS, and NAM all showed a nice punch of positive vorticity advection over much of northern OH at some point between late Saturday evening and early Sunday on their 12z runs. This, combined with enough mid level moisture would cause a period of light synoptic snow for a few hours area wide, perhaps amounting to an inch. Of more interest, however, is the cold(ish) WNW flow that will be in place starting Saturday evening. This will enhance any snow over the Snow Belt, and may allow snow showers to continue into Sunday morning over the Snow Belt. Given depth of instability (inversions at or above 10000 ft) and moisture, believe this could squeeze out 2-4” from eastern Cuyahoga County points east, and turn into a borderline advisory event. So, will definitely be watching this the next day or two. I’m liking the deep moisture up through 700mb, something we sorely lacked last weekend. Moisture will make an otherwise marginal setup good and an otherwise good setup very marginal as we have seen before, which helps peak my interest a bit for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 This actually looks like a decent event ... by this year's standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 This actually looks like a decent event ... by this year's standards. Sad that a couple inches of snow in mid December would be considered "impressive." Looking at this, there is a slight chance we see that first inch on Saturday (the 17th) which I believe would place us in a tie with 04-05 for second for the latest first inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Sad that a couple inches of snow in mid December would be considered "impressive." Looking at this, there is a slight chance we see that first inch on Saturday (the 17th) which I believe would place us in a tie with 04-05 for second for the latest first inch of snow. How did the rest of the 04-05 season turn out? Hopefully the lake still being relatively warm (for this period in december) will help give us a shot at a rather large les event sometime soon this winter when the artic air decides to arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carumba Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 How did the rest of the 04-05 season turn out? Hopefully the lake still being relatively warm (for this period in december) will help give us a shot at a rather large les event sometime soon this winter when the artic air decides to arrive. 04-05 was awesome IIRC. It was my first winter in Cleveland having moved from Philadelphia and I could not believe the difference between the two places. I was living in Shaker Hts at the time and for Xmas we had cold and boundless snow, couldn't have been more festive. The 7 Xmas years after that have been dull and boring compared to 04-05. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 How did the rest of the 04-05 season turn out? Hopefully the lake still being relatively warm (for this period in december) will help give us a shot at a rather large les event sometime soon this winter when the artic air decides to arrive. The first inch in 2004/2005 was Dec 13th, when 9" fell and it continued dumping all December long. 117" fell that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Wow so maybe there is some hope. However it ends up , can't be as bad as a Cincy winter that I am used to. The winter here last year was great for my first year here. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Wow so maybe there is some hope. However it ends up , can't be as bad as a Cincy winter that I am used to. The winter here last year was great for my first year here. Snow heaven lol. I've been traveling for work and haven't paid much attention to the models until this morning. Looks like we are going to need a Christmas miracle. At least the Euro looks somewhat "colder". This fast zonal flow is miserable. Perhaps a few inches of snow this weekend... I'll take what we can get at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Perhaps we'll get an inch Sunday morning, which would be Dec 18th and beat out the second latest inch at CLE which was Dec 17, 1998. I do think we'll add a few tenths here and an inch there through end of month. I think once the pattern flips we'll be rewarded with a decent lake effect event. Despite rapidly cooling waters, they are still warm relatively speaking. In the end I give it a 10% chance that CLE hits 68" this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Perhaps we'll get an inch Sunday morning, which would be Dec 18th and beat out the second latest inch at CLE which was Dec 17, 1998. I do think we'll add a few tenths here and an inch there through end of month. I think once the pattern flips we'll be rewarded with a decent lake effect event. Despite rapidly cooling waters, they are still warm relatively speaking. In the end I give it a 10% chance that CLE hits 68" this winter. Possible but not probable. I guess if the pattern flipped Jan 1 there would be an outside shot. I mentioned that CLE would see no more than two 6" events this year so it would take alot of nickel and diming to get to 68". Feels a lot more like Thanksgiving than Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 GFS tosses a bone for next week. Looks like a few sloppy front end inches on the latest run. I can't remember the last time I saw the GFS show a snowstorm here under hour 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I'm on 71 south and looks like odot is pretreating the highway. Interesting .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I'm on 71 south and looks like odot is pretreating the highway. Interesting .. They must be bored out of their minds. I saw two full salt trucks yesterday when it was 62 degrees, no reason they should be out in this weather. One thing is for sure, once that first real storm hits, it will be cleared instantly and salted to oblivion, these companies are anxious for business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 They must be bored out of their minds. I saw two full salt trucks yesterday when it was 62 degrees, no reason they should be out in this weather. One thing is for sure, once that first real storm hits, it will be cleared instantly and salted to oblivion, these companies are anxious for business. It's in anticipation of the flizzard we are expecting. Seriously... salt is stockpiled... they might not even half to plow if/when the snow hits this winter. Looks like a coupleof inches possible this weekend. As soon as the snow gets going though conditions become unfavorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Lake Huron finally has one eye open tonight after a long early winter's nap as some signs of squalls appearing SE of the lake. Probably the first legit squalls this season this far south. You guys south of Erie are probably next - if not tonight .....within a week or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Has been flurrying off and on at work in Macedonia since midnight. Mid levels will slowly moisten through morning so we will hopefully see some legitimate snow showers by sun rise. Nothing major. Winds look to remain more westerly for much of tonight, so this may be more of a true Snow Belt event, if you want to call 2-3" an event. Still looks like a synoptic half inch to an inch outside the Snow Belt this evening is possible as the vort max swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 snowing quite nicely out there. some heavier returns on radar. looks like winter for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carumba Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 snowing quite nicely out there. some heavier returns on radar. looks like winter for a change. It's really sad when this nuisance snow is the best we've had all season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 It's really sad when this nuisance snow is the best we've had all season... Tell me about it. But I'll take what we can get at this point. Up to an inch now... I must be the "jackpot" zone lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 There's about 0.2" in Parma. Not sure if airport will make it to an inch. I bet the east side gets close to 3" with enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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