tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yup. Now watch, this has the biggest KU signal of the winter so far in the medium range (way more than Boxing Day or the storm tomorrow) and will whiff by 300 mi OTS... im liking the pattern setup for next week. Very active, potentially 3 storms to watch. clipper, the storm along the front, then another behind that....It almost looks like a gradnient type patter. Those north of the boundary have a lot of wintry potential, those south of that are going to be slitting there wriste, those along it are going to have a headache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 tony, quick question of topic, are they going to have the skywarn tomorrow night in delco? Back on topic, the euro the last 3 runs is really building that pna ridge up into alaska. hr 240 extropolated looks like another siberian airmass dropping south into the northern plains. No, its already been canceled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 No, its already been canceled. thank you, any reschedule date yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 thank you, any reschedule date yet? I think in March, I'll see Larry tomorrow, I'll ask him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hmm, as if the NAO needed any more reason to go negative, now we got a phase 8 about to take shape..Going off of that though, the Archambult signal the models are seeing around the 20th, doesnt this conflict with the mjo entering phase 8 and correlating to a -NAO pattern? Or will this MJO wave likely affect our pattern after the 20th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hmm, as if the NAO needed any more reason to go negative, now we got a phase 8 about to take shape..Going off of that though, the Archambult signal the models are seeing around the 20th, doesnt this conflict with the mjo entering phase 8 and correlating to a -NAO pattern? Or will this MJO wave likely affect our pattern after the 20th? ... or it may reflect that the mjo may not go into phase 8 as soon as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hmm, as if the NAO needed any more reason to go negative, now we got a phase 8 about to take shape..Going off of that though, the Archambult signal the models are seeing around the 20th, doesnt this conflict with the mjo entering phase 8 and correlating to a -NAO pattern? Or will this MJO wave likely affect our pattern after the 20th? No, I mean the MJO goes into Phase 8, throws up a +PNA ridge/-NAO, we get a big snowstorm, which then turns the NAO positive (which is being shown in the out hours on the models for the last week of the month - including the Euro weeklies). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 No, I mean the MJO goes into Phase 8, throws up a +PNA ridge/-NAO, we get a big snowstorm, which then turns the NAO positive (which is being shown in the out hours on the models for the last week of the month - including the Euro weeklies). Alright gotcha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Alright gotcha The timing, of course, could be off. The MJO isn't handled particularly well by the models with this lead. The P8 signal is definitely there, even in the stat forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Kudos to the GFS for picking up on this first. Archambault event around Jan 20? 0z gfs hr 192-216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS h5 hour 180 puts a tear in my eye... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 It still looks very active the next few weeks. Next weeks event looks to have various precip. issues depending on location since trough is showing signs of shifting west some. Still lot of cold air to the west and north. No blow torch really showing up yet. Its been a great La Nina so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 FWIW, the Euro ensemble mean shows a coastal for Jan 18-20. That's a bit early looking at the latest MJO stuff, so the west idea might play out. Despite what some mets are saying, I'm having a difficult time finding sustained warmth over the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The models are hinting at yet another potential system from the 1/18-1/20 time frame. This system looks to be more gulf based as a long wave trough travels eastward. Several pieces of energy are forecasted to dive south and rotate through the trough potentially spinning up yet another coastal or perhaps less organized areas of heavy preip. Some of the precip looks to potenially fall as heavy rain and with warmer temperatures, a pretty massive snowpack in most of the area and perhaps widespread heavy rain the potential will definitly exist for flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Euro and GGEM are colder and more east than the GFS. NAO is going to be slightly positive, AO is going to be negative and the PNA is going to be positive. Also, the MJO is right now in phase 5, heading towards 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I know it is a week out, but this seems like it could be more of an icing event. How are the highs to the northeast being modeled? CAD situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Okay, what's next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 FWIW, the Euro ensemble mean shows a coastal for Jan 18-20. That's a bit early looking at the latest MJO stuff, so the west idea might play out. Despite what some mets are saying, I'm having a difficult time finding sustained warmth over the next 2 weeks. GFS has the Nao rising to slightly positive, while the Euro has it rising to positive. Both models still have the AO negative. It looks like the MJO is on the move towards phase 6 and then phase 7/8. Should be interesting to see what develops in the upcoming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 GFS has the Nao rising to slightly positive, while the Euro has it rising to positive. Both models still have the AO negative. It looks like the MJO is on the move towards phase 6 and then phase 7/8. Should be interesting to see what develops in the upcoming weeks. Yeah, I'm buying into tropical and stratospheric stuff to forecast continued cold, less on the global dynamical models. Of course, I busted the hell out of the first two weeks in December doing the same thing, so we'll see how wrong I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I cant recall seeing this too often... just remarkable ...just need to fill CVA snowhole. most of us are freerolling for the rest of winter. but snowcover is something guidance doesnt pick up, so temps and precip cud be on the cooler side. wud just a +PNA be good enough to still deliver shots of SN or do we still need the sick blocking to continue, regardless of PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 What an incredible winter so far. How often are we not even finished shoveling out and already tracking another potential big one less than ten days away? Even if this one turns out to be an interior event with rain or ice for us just the shear number of events to track is a weather nuts dream. Let's not forget this stretch next winter when we make it into February without any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 DT snow hole for the win! I cant recall seeing this too often... just remarkable ...just need to fill CVA snowhole. most of us are freerolling for the rest of winter. but snowcover is something guidance doesnt pick up, so temps and precip cud be on the cooler side. wud just a +PNA be good enough to still deliver shots of SN or do we still need the sick blocking to continue, regardless of PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 I cant recall seeing this too often... just remarkable ...just need to fill CVA snowhole. most of us are freerolling for the rest of winter. but snowcover is something guidance doesnt pick up, so temps and precip cud be on the cooler side. wud just a +PNA be good enough to still deliver shots of SN or do we still need the sick blocking to continue, regardless of PNA? Actually, the global models do pick up on snowcover in their radiation parameterizations (though you're right, it's not explicit). The +PNA helps set the stage, bringing Arctic airmasses down from Canada and setting the wavelengths to be in correct position. Even though the NAO calculation is neutral or slightly positive, there is still some blocking evident across the North Atlantic. It's certainly not as extreme as we saw in December, but it might be enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 DT snow hole for the win! There was measurable snow down this way, that map will be filled in I would imagine to reflect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 There was measurable snow down this way, that map will be filled in I would imagine to reflect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I cant recall seeing this too often... just remarkable ...just need to fill CVA snowhole. most of us are freerolling for the rest of winter. but snowcover is something guidance doesnt pick up, so temps and precip cud be on the cooler side. wud just a +PNA be good enough to still deliver shots of SN or do we still need the sick blocking to continue, regardless of PNA? Their is a write up about on the NOAA site. All 50 states except FL have snow on the ground. Even Hawaii does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 the GFS somewhat cold on day 10..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 What potential on the GFS....all we need is a bit sharper of a trough and for it to dig a tad more and were in business. The only thing that worries me is that this seems like another one of our famous phase or no phase jobs that ends up OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 What potential on the GFS....all we need is a bit sharper of a trough and for it to dig a tad more and were in business. The only thing that worries me is that this seems like another one of our famous phase or no phase jobs that ends up OTS. Which date are you talking about? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Their is a write up about on the NOAA site. All 50 states except FL have snow on the ground. Even Hawaii does. Kind of like the winter of 76-77 (maybe 77-78) I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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