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The PHL/NYC Medium Range Thread - Part 2


am19psu

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Yup. Now watch, this has the biggest KU signal of the winter so far in the medium range (way more than Boxing Day or the storm tomorrow) and will whiff by 300 mi OTS... :gun_bandana:

im liking the pattern setup for next week. Very active, potentially 3 storms to watch. clipper, the storm along the front, then another behind that....It almost looks like a gradnient type patter. Those north of the boundary have a lot of wintry potential, those south of that are going to be slitting there wriste, those along it are going to have a headache.

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tony, quick question of topic, are they going to have the skywarn tomorrow night in delco?

Back on topic, the euro the last 3 runs is really building that pna ridge up into alaska. hr 240 extropolated looks like another siberian airmass dropping south into the northern plains.

No, its already been canceled.

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Hmm, as if the NAO needed any more reason to go negative, now we got a phase 8 about to take shape..Going off of that though, the Archambult signal the models are seeing around the 20th, doesnt this conflict with the mjo entering phase 8 and correlating to a -NAO pattern? Or will this MJO wave likely affect our pattern after the 20th?

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Hmm, as if the NAO needed any more reason to go negative, now we got a phase 8 about to take shape..Going off of that though, the Archambult signal the models are seeing around the 20th, doesnt this conflict with the mjo entering phase 8 and correlating to a -NAO pattern? Or will this MJO wave likely affect our pattern after the 20th?

... or it may reflect that the mjo may not go into phase 8 as soon as depicted.
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Hmm, as if the NAO needed any more reason to go negative, now we got a phase 8 about to take shape..Going off of that though, the Archambult signal the models are seeing around the 20th, doesnt this conflict with the mjo entering phase 8 and correlating to a -NAO pattern? Or will this MJO wave likely affect our pattern after the 20th?

No, I mean the MJO goes into Phase 8, throws up a +PNA ridge/-NAO, we get a big snowstorm, which then turns the NAO positive (which is being shown in the out hours on the models for the last week of the month - including the Euro weeklies).

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It still looks very active the next few weeks.

Next weeks event looks to have various precip. issues depending on location since trough is showing signs of shifting west some.

Still lot of cold air to the west and north.

No blow torch really showing up yet.

Its been a great La Nina so far :)

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The models are hinting at yet another potential system from the 1/18-1/20 time frame. This system looks to be more gulf based as a long wave trough travels eastward. Several pieces of energy are forecasted to dive south and rotate through the trough potentially spinning up yet another coastal or perhaps less organized areas of heavy preip. Some of the precip looks to potenially fall as heavy rain and with warmer temperatures, a pretty massive snowpack in most of the area and perhaps widespread heavy rain the potential will definitly exist for flooding.

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FWIW, the Euro ensemble mean shows a coastal for Jan 18-20. That's a bit early looking at the latest MJO stuff, so the west idea might play out. Despite what some mets are saying, I'm having a difficult time finding sustained warmth over the next 2 weeks.

GFS has the Nao rising to slightly positive, while the Euro has it rising to positive. Both models still have the AO negative. It looks like the MJO is on the move towards phase 6 and then phase 7/8. Should be interesting to see what develops in the upcoming weeks.

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GFS has the Nao rising to slightly positive, while the Euro has it rising to positive. Both models still have the AO negative. It looks like the MJO is on the move towards phase 6 and then phase 7/8. Should be interesting to see what develops in the upcoming weeks.

Yeah, I'm buying into tropical and stratospheric stuff to forecast continued cold, less on the global dynamical models. Of course, I busted the hell out of the first two weeks in December doing the same thing, so we'll see how wrong I am :arrowhead:

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I cant recall seeing this too often...

just remarkable ...just need to fill CVA snowhole. most of us are freerolling for the rest of winter. but snowcover is something guidance doesnt pick up, so temps and precip cud be on the cooler side. wud just a +PNA be good enough to still deliver shots of SN or do we still need the sick blocking to continue, regardless of PNA?

cursnow_usa.gif?session-id=05a54a6719ddaaae99addc0505090293

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What an incredible winter so far. How often are we not even finished shoveling out and already tracking another potential big one less than ten days away? Even if this one turns out to be an interior event with rain or ice for us just the shear number of events to track is a weather nuts dream. Let's not forget this stretch next winter when we make it into February without any snow.

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DT snow hole for the win!

I cant recall seeing this too often...

just remarkable ...just need to fill CVA snowhole. most of us are freerolling for the rest of winter. but snowcover is something guidance doesnt pick up, so temps and precip cud be on the cooler side. wud just a +PNA be good enough to still deliver shots of SN or do we still need the sick blocking to continue, regardless of PNA?

cursnow_usa.gif?session-id=05a54a6719ddaaae99addc0505090293

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I cant recall seeing this too often...

just remarkable ...just need to fill CVA snowhole. most of us are freerolling for the rest of winter. but snowcover is something guidance doesnt pick up, so temps and precip cud be on the cooler side. wud just a +PNA be good enough to still deliver shots of SN or do we still need the sick blocking to continue, regardless of PNA?

Actually, the global models do pick up on snowcover in their radiation parameterizations (though you're right, it's not explicit). The +PNA helps set the stage, bringing Arctic airmasses down from Canada and setting the wavelengths to be in correct position. Even though the NAO calculation is neutral or slightly positive, there is still some blocking evident across the North Atlantic. It's certainly not as extreme as we saw in December, but it might be enough...

z500_jsw_anom_f168_nhsm.gif

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I cant recall seeing this too often...

just remarkable ...just need to fill CVA snowhole. most of us are freerolling for the rest of winter. but snowcover is something guidance doesnt pick up, so temps and precip cud be on the cooler side. wud just a +PNA be good enough to still deliver shots of SN or do we still need the sick blocking to continue, regardless of PNA?

cursnow_usa.gif?session-id=05a54a6719ddaaae99addc0505090293

Their is a write up about on the NOAA site. All 50 states except FL have snow on the ground. Even Hawaii does.

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What potential on the GFS....all we need is a bit sharper of a trough and for it to dig a tad more and were in business. The only thing that worries me is that this seems like another one of our famous phase or no phase jobs that ends up OTS.

Which date are you talking about?

Rossi

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