MJW155 Posted October 20, 2011 Author Share Posted October 20, 2011 It's pretty impressive that the Sunrise tornado was rated EF2. The couplet was much stronger out over the Everglades, so its a good thing it didn't hit anything or we could have been hearing about EF3/4 damage. Yea it hit right by the Sawgrass Mall. It was about 10 miles west of me. Very stormy night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Cut the grass after work and probably should have held off for a few days. Soggy tera firma all over. Huge drop in dew points / humidity since the front went through. LOVING it .... but still would like another similar episode before we all are subjected to never ending beautiful weather and fire season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 It looks like we have latest end to the general FL wet season since 2001. Come on ..... one more event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 It looks like we have latest end to the general FL wet season since 2001. Come on ..... one more event It may be over but some of these fronts that come through can pack a serious punch. Get ready for some nasty squall line activity the next few months. There can also be some real busts. 2 years ago NWS in Jville was pretty confident that a severe event would happen. Schools and businesses closed early and every one got ready. Turned out to be a real yawner. In 2005 a nasty line came through at 3AM and tornadoes killed 22 people just to my south. Same thing happened in 1998 when some EF3's tore through Orlando killing 45. Also, sometimes these fronts will hang up and if you are in the right place the rain train can dump some copious amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 I spoke too soon. 96L is on the prowl and the NHC has 60% chance of development. TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS CENTERED ABOUT 170 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL FORM DURING THE WEEKEND. LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 12Z GFS takes 96L out to see but interestingly 12Z Euro brings a fairly well developed storm into the Gulf and through FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Cool tonight in North Florida: Tonight: Patchy frost after 8pm. Otherwise, clear, with a low around 39. :hug:North wind around 6 mph becoming calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flweathernerd Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Looks like 96L is following this year's trend of crap. Hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Looks like 96L is following this year's trend of crap. Hope I'm wrong. I don't think you will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I'll be in Homestead 10/29-11/1. How about you Florida folks cook me up something tropical for my arrival! Well I got my wish possibly. So will Rina have an impact on South Florida? The mets in the main tropical thread are not gung-ho about her impacting South FLA intact, but even some remnants would make me happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Well I got my wish possibly. So will Rina have an impact on South Florida? The mets in the main tropical thread are not gung-ho about her impacting South FLA intact, but even some remnants would make me happy. Man you picked a good time to visit. I'm hoping Rina bucks the trend and comes in north of Tampa but that cold front won't let that happen. Unless she slows her northward movement? I got my fingers crossed. Anyways I hope you get to experience some late season tropical action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Hopefully this does not happen. If it does, a chase might be in order. This is the 12 UTC HWRF model. Possible tracks from other various models: ↓Image source: http://a6.sphotos.ak...923969636_n.jpg ↓ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Man you picked a good time to visit. I'm hoping Rina bucks the trend and comes in north of Tampa but that cold front won't let that happen. Unless she slows her northward movement? I got my fingers crossed. Anyways I hope you get to experience some late season tropical action. Yep, or bad time..... I'll be landing on Saturday morning at 8:45 AM in Ft. Lauderdale then driving to Homestead. I just hope if this storm does come towards Florida I can get in before it messes up my flight... I must admit I'm excited but the timing might be way too close for comfort in terms of my flight getting cancelled. It's still very early but this has my interest piqued greatly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 C'mon Rina! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypatia Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 According to Dr. Jeff Masters: A trough of low pressure is predicted to pass to the north of Rina late this week, and now that the hurricane is expected to be a Category 2 or stronger storm, the chances for Rina to make it farther north and affect the Florida Keys and Southwest Florida have increased. The latest 8 am EDT runs of the GFDL and HWRF models both predict that Rina will pass through the Yucatan Channel on Thursday and make landfall on Friday in the Florida Keys or extreme Southwest Florida, south of Naples. The NOGAPS and GFS models predict a weaker storm, and keep Rina trapped in the Caribbean. I think it is more likely that Rina will pass through the Keys. If Rina does make it to the Keys, it would likely be as a tropical storm, since wind shear, dry air, and possible land interaction with Western Cuba and Mexico would potentially knock down the storm's strength. http://www.wundergro...og/JeffMasters/ Yes, it's grasping for straws, but ya gotta keep hope alive, lol. The fact that the storm has intensified so quickly improves the chances of it "feeling" the trough and getting pulled NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The 12 Z GFS is now fully on the strike Florida bandwagon. Will be very interesting to see what the other models say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypatia Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The 12 Z GFS is now fully on the strike Florida bandwagon. Will be very interesting to see what the other models say. Most of the pros in the Rina thread seem to consider this an unlikely solution, but we can always hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 Most of the pros in the Rina thread seem to consider this an unlikely solution, but we can always hope. Larry Cosgrove mentioned it on Facebook. It's something to watch; especially since it's only 4 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 South Florida still a target of a weakening Rina? Some models are still pushing her through S FLA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 We've really been caught on the dry side of the moisture boundary all week: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html but it looks like that's going to change the next couple of days. Hopefully we can squeeze out one last soaking before the endless dry begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 We've really been caught on the dry side of the moisture boundary all week: http://tropic.ssec.w.../natl/main.html but it looks like that's going to change the next couple of days. Hopefully we can squeeze out one last soaking before the endless dry begins. Let's hope so but Okeechobee is now at 13.09 ft which is only about a half inch from where it was at this time last year so one more soaking rain would probably get it higher than last. October overall was very good to the lake and to Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Let's hope so but Okeechobee is now at 13.09 ft which is only about a half inch from where it was at this time last year so one more soaking rain would probably get it higher than last. October overall was very good to the lake and to Florida. Yes, it was a very bountiful October! 12Z ECMWF looking pretty wet down here. No all-day washouts, but fairly consistent showery weather through the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 That cell out over the glades is showing a bit of rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flweathernerd Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 That storm had that hook like feature all the way up to Alligator Alley. I wonder what that was. In other news, a ton of rain just north of Alligator Alley and starting to develop south. Looks like another very nice rain event for South Florida before the dry season really kicks in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saltysenior Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Let's hope so but Okeechobee is now at 13.09 ft which is only about a half inch from where it was at this time last year so one more soaking rain would probably get it higher than last. October overall was very good to the lake and to Florida. the radar pic [9:30 pm today] shows heavy rain around the lake and to the s w ....north of a line e & w sebring showe little rain....we have had a lot of rain above that line 2 weeks ago,but to fill the lake more is needed in that area....the kissimmee r . and canals n.of the lake are the main source of water to the lake.....now that the hurricane season is winding down , rain in a area n of the lake can be stored w/o any dumping......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 840 PM EDT SUN OCT 30 2011 FLC086-310100- /O.CON.KMFL.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-111031T0100Z/ MIAMI-DADE FL- 840 PM EDT SUN OCT 30 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR EAST CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY... AT 838 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST AT CUTLER BAY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF A TORNADO...SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...AWAY FROM OUTSIDE WALLS AND WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. TORNADOES ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT BECAUSE THEY ARE HARD TO SEE. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE! MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR REINFORCED SHELTER. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. Had to use TMIA since KAMX still down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 855 PM EDT SUN OCT 30 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SOUTH MIAMI...KENDALL... * UNTIL 945 PM EDT * AT 853 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR PERRINE... MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH. THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... PERRINE... PINECREST... AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...AWAY FROM EXTERIOR WALLS AND WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY. TAKE COVER NOW IN A STURDY REINFORCED BUILDING. TORNADOES ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT BECAUSE THEY ARE HARD TO SEE. IF YOU WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE! MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR REINFORCED SHELTER. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Flooding starting to become serious now. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1220 AM EDT MON OCT 31 2011 FLC086-310830- /O.CON.KMFL.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-111031T0830Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ MIAMI-DADE FL- 1220 AM EDT MON OCT 31 2011 ...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM EDT FOR EAST CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY... AT 1211 AM EDT...A STORM SPOTTER REPORTED THAT ALL STREETS EAST OF LENOX AVENUE BETWEEN 9TH AND 14TH STREET IS FLOODED. LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE REPORTED EXTENSIVE STREET FLOODING WITH STALLED VEHICLES AND IMPASSABLE STREETS IN THE CORAL GABLES AREA. FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR FROM COCONUT GROVE TO DOWNTOWN MIAMI TO SOUTH BEACH. THIS WILL EXACERBATE THE FLOODING SITUATION...LEADING TO VERY DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. DRIVING IS NOT RECOMMENDED ACROSS THESE AREAS. FLOODING OF SOME HOMES AND BUSINESSES IS LIKELY. LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CUTLER BAY...CUTLER RIDGE...PERRINE...COCONUT GROVE...MIAMI BEACH...MIAMI...SOUTH MIAMI...AND CORAL GABLES PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLOODING. WITH FLOODED ROADWAYS AND THE NUMEROUS CANALS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...IT CAN BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE THE ROAD ENDS AND WHERE THE CANAL BEGINS. MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypatia Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Hobe Sound EF-0 Tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 My wife was down in Deerfield Beach this weekend. She said it never stopped raining. I see they are getting slammed again today in north Broward. Our 30% chance of rain last night turned into 1.38 in the bucket today. That was a nice surprise. Ended the month with 6.51 which is quite impressive considering I had zero last October. Looking forward to checking the Cocorahs totals for October for the east and southeast coast tomorrow. October has been a wet one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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