MJW155 Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 Fall is here so I figured maybe I'd start a new Florida thread. No one has posted in the old one for a few days. I turned my A/C off. I'll keep it on during the day if I'm home; but at night, I turn it off and open the windows. I hope we get some cool weather this fall/winter. I know I'm pretty far south, but I don't think I've had temps below 60 since February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 54 this morning and windows open....feels like fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 I'll be in Florida for a wedding on Saturday! I can't wait to be back home! Only thing that sucks is it's an outdoor wedding and a weak trough/backdoor cold front is forecast to move through sometime Friday/Saturday.... Uh oh!!!!! Hopefully you guys can get some rain out of this as you enter the dry season. I'm not sure whether I want cooler weather or warmer weather.... especially after the summer we had here in Georgia.... I think I'll take mid 80s and sunshine so I can hit up the number 1 beach in the world! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 47 this AM at the house but I was over in Crystal River fishing this morning. It was 53 there but that was a cold ride out. Had to turn around when we got out in the Gulf. Damn waves were just too big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 I hope we get some cool weather this fall/winter. You mean like the last 2 winters? 2009-2010 9th coldest winter (since 1896) in Florida, 2010-2011 10th coldest. 2011-2012? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted October 3, 2011 Author Share Posted October 3, 2011 You mean like the last 2 winters? 2009-2010 9th coldest winter (since 1896) in Florida, 2010-2011 10th coldest. 2011-2012? What about our neck of the woods? I just remember last winter started out cool but by Feb. it rarely if ever got below 60. The winter before that was my first winter down here and I know it was cooler than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 What about our neck of the woods? I just remember last winter started out cool but by Feb. it rarely if ever got below 60. The winter before that was my first winter down here and I know it was cooler than that. You're right about that. Last winter the cold came in strong but ended early. The previous year, Feb and even Mar were both very cold (both 4-5 deg below avg), so that was quite a-typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted October 3, 2011 Author Share Posted October 3, 2011 You're right about that. Last winter the cold came in strong but ended early. The previous year, Feb and even Mar were both very cold (both 4-5 deg below avg), so that was quite a-typical. Yea maybe that's why I thought last winter was so warm. It's funny how you say cold and I say cool. LOL. I still have northern blood I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 Heading into the unavoidable dry season and constant gorgeous wx we obviously all could use as much rain as we can get. From the wet season thread here are some snapshots of where we basically stand with the constant battle vs drought conditions and the other unavoidable but still distant fire season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 We could get more rain to help out the drought before the dry season begins.My local weather out of jacksonville has nor' easter conditions this weekend with the hint of maybe something forming on the tail end,im thinking hybrid system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 We could get more rain to help out the drought before the dry season begins.My local weather out of jacksonville has nor' easter conditions this weekend with the hint of maybe something forming on the tail end,im thinking hybrid system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 OK Folks, Models are suggesting something tropical/semi-tropical in 5 - 8 days. ?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 OK Folks, Models are suggesting something tropical/semi-tropical in 5 - 8 days. ?????? Meh. Nothing really to see here. Potential for some heavy rain and beach erosion but other than that not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 This little snippet from Jvilles discussion. This would be huge if it happens. Going into the dry season a state wide deluge is just what the doctor ordered. Long term... most of the models are developing some type of a low in the Bahamas or Florida Straits and bringing it north to north- northwestward. Have no idea at this point what the nature of the low will be but it is interesting that all of the GFS ensemble member have it somewhere between 80w and 90w early next week. So I am not going to get fancy with the probability of precipitation and will indicate 60 percent probability of precipitation across the area on Monday and Tuesday. This could be the heavy rainfall event we have been looking for to take a Dent out of the rainfall deficit we've been experiencing in this area. The track will be important as an offshore track will bring rainfall to the coast with little inland while a track up the peninsula or extreme eastern Gulf would bring a good fetch of moisture into the forecast area and too far west and we could be looking at lesser rainfall amounts. Stay tuned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Well, the latest GFS has trended westward toward the ECMWF and now has cyclogenesis occurring right over Miami with the low moving basically right up the peninsula. There are still way too many questions at this point, it is safe to say its going to be rainy and wet, but it would be anything from just a normal rainy weekend to having a tropical storm dumping rain everywhere. Too early to tell, but worth watching--as well as a second possible Caribbean storm a week after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Well, the latest GFS has trended westward toward the ECMWF and now has cyclogenesis occurring right over Miami with the low moving basically right up the peninsula. There are still way too many questions at this point, it is safe to say its going to be rainy and wet, but it would be anything from just a normal rainy weekend to having a tropical storm dumping rain everywhere. Too early to tell, but worth watching--as well as a second possible Caribbean storm a week after. statewide rain dumpage would be exactly what is needed. BTW a "normal" rainy weekend in FL is nothing to right home about except for specific local areas. Let's uppercut our deficits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 I see 2 tracks on the system forming late, one to the east coast of florida from miami riding up north and west and the other comming up from key west to just west of tampa.I like to see it go right up the middle with some wind and heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypatia Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Reducing some of the rainfall deficits before we head into dry season would make me very happy. The Melbourne AFD also mentions the possibility of a few isolated tornadoes as well. Should be a fun time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Reducing some of the rainfall deficits before we head into dry season would make me very happy. The Melbourne AFD also mentions the possibility of a few isolated tornadoes as well. Should be a fun time! great to see you here! Yes, the next four to five days look quite interesting in regards to possible heavy rain and some severe. Tons of fun hopefully before the reality of eternal beautiful wx arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 great to see you here! Yes, the next four to five days look quite interesting in regards to possible heavy rain and some severe. Tons of fun hopefully before the reality of eternal beautiful wx arrives. No worries! We'll have quite the show somewhere in Florida... Only because I'm heading home for the first time in a year! Bad weather seems to follow me now.... Oh well! It will be fun tracking this from my own backyard! Maybe, if things turn out alright. I may go chase it if it's at least a tropical storm.... Hybrid system... MEH MAYBE. It sure looks like the east coast of FL will get a nice deluge so I may have to migrate over from the west coast. It'll be fun! PS: As long as it's dry for my friend's wedding Saturday, I'll be a happy camper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Hydrologic Outlook HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-070900-HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL512 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2011 ...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSSEAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO FRIDAY. MORE PERSISTENT BANDS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND SURGE OF ONSHORE FLOW PUSHING INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SURGE ALONE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS NEAR THE EAST COAST.THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AND MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON THE DEVELOPMENT OFA LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECIFY THE EXACT LOCATION AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE THE DEVELOPING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR THE EAST COAST...*AREAS NEAR THE EAST COAST MAY SEE RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO THREE TO SIX INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE SHOWER BANDS ARE MOST PERSISTENT. *INTERIOR SECTIONS MAY SEE RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.A FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SINCE RAIN AMOUNTS IN THESE SITUATIONS CAN BE EXCESSIVE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE ATLANTIC WATERS REMAIN VERY WARM AND THE EVENT COULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THIS DEVELOPING HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT INTO THE WEEKEND. LISTEN FORLATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCHES. $GLITTO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 The Treasure Coast is getting some persistent showers coming in from off the ocean and it looks like this will hang on for awhile. Hopefully just a preview. MBY is a recipient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flweathernerd Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Hopefully we get a good amount of rain out of this before the dry season really kicks in. I will say one thing though, it does feel absolutely fantastic out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 I just found out I'll be in Homestead from 10/29 - 11/2, here is to hoping for some exciting weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 It will be interesting to see where this storm forms.My local station ch 13 has it forming in the bahamas the lifting north and east . The weather channel has 3 tracks along the east coast,up the middle or hugging the west coast of florida either way lots of rain and some wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 It will be interesting to see where this storm forms.My local station ch 13 has it forming in the bahamas the lifting north and east . The weather channel has 3 tracks along the east coast,up the middle or hugging the west coast of florida either way lots of rain and some wind Much rather have the west coast scenario. That way all of us can join in the fun instead of just the east coasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 I have so far accumulated 2.65 inches of rain in the past 24 hours. I also have been on the northern extent of the heavy rain shield,Daytona and south looks very impressive on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Been getting pounded down here in Miami all day, ever since about 8 or 9 pm last night. Over 4" now, some street flooding. As far as (sub)tropical cyclogenesis is concerned, there is still a chance that we could see something form just east or just west of the peninsula over the next 48 hrs. However, convection is still quite disorganized, and pressures are not really falling, so odds are against it. Beyond 48 hrs, some form of broad low pressure will likely form in the Gulf, but probably not a huge deal for anyone. In any event, it looks like a strong N/S pressure gradient with good surface convergence will be enough to keep things wet and windy over much of FL today, even in the absence of anything tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 I would imagine someone has to be closing in on 10" in Brevard County at this time. We are now up over 4" IMBY. I'm wondering if we can make a run at the October 24hr rainfall record at MCO. The record stands at 5.84 and unofficially I saw they were already over 3.50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Oh and a pool pic. I have to go out and drain the pool as it is about to overflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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