ocala Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Hobe Sound EF-0 Tornado Mobile home park. Geez who would have thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 My wife was down in Deerfield Beach this weekend. She said it never stopped raining. I see they are getting slammed again today in north Broward. Our 30% chance of rain last night turned into 1.38 in the bucket today. That was a nice surprise. Ended the month with 6.51 which is quite impressive considering I had zero last October. Looking forward to checking the Cocorahs totals for October for the east and southeast coast tomorrow. October has been a wet one. Vero Beach which is mere miles from MBY checked in with 21.93 inches for October. The all time October record there was 15.58 set in 1983. So, it was shattered into pieces. Even more interesting, the NWS out of Melbourne reported today that this month was the second wettest month on record ..... period in Vero Beach. That honor still goes to September 2004 when 23.01 inches fell mainly thanks to Frances and Jeanne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted November 1, 2011 Author Share Posted November 1, 2011 My wife was down in Deerfield Beach this weekend. She said it never stopped raining. I see they are getting slammed again today in north Broward. Our 30% chance of rain last night turned into 1.38 in the bucket today. That was a nice surprise. Ended the month with 6.51 which is quite impressive considering I had zero last October. Looking forward to checking the Cocorahs totals for October for the east and southeast coast tomorrow. October has been a wet one. Deerfield is just north of me. Yea, it rained basically all weekend. Today was the dryest day and we had rain for about an hour earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Vero Beach which is mere miles from MBY checked in with 21.93 inches for October. The all time October record there was 15.58 set in 1983. So, it was shattered into pieces. Even more interesting, the NWS out of Melbourne reported today that this month was the second wettest month on record ..... period in Vero Beach. That honor still goes to September 2004 when 23.01 inches fell mainly thanks to Frances and Jeanne. Miami Beach came very close with 21.34" for the month! Stragely, the airport just 10 miles further west "only" picked up 15.52", but if you go another 10 miles further west, Miami NWS came in at 17.15". What I find particularly impressive is that so many of these rain evens this Oct were not your typical convection, but instead massive stratiform rain regions (with embedded convection) covering half the state at a time and remaining over the same locations for several days at a time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted November 2, 2011 Author Share Posted November 2, 2011 Miami Beach came very close with 21.34" for the month! Stragely, the airport just 10 miles further west "only" picked up 15.52", but if you go another 10 miles further west, Miami NWS came in at 17.15". What I find particularly impressive is that so many of these rain evens this Oct were not your typical convection, but instead massive stratiform rain regions (with embedded convection) covering half the state at a time and remaining over the same locations for several days at a time! You can tell this is a weather board because most people were pissed off it kept raining over and over, not impressed. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Miami Beach came very close with 21.34" for the month! Stragely, the airport just 10 miles further west "only" picked up 15.52", but if you go another 10 miles further west, Miami NWS came in at 17.15". What I find particularly impressive is that so many of these rain evens this Oct were not your typical convection, but instead massive stratiform rain regions (with embedded convection) covering half the state at a time and remaining over the same locations for several days at a time! A flat out bonanza with October records falling in many places. Without the help of a true TC besides the great no name storm which greatly affected MBY at the southern end on up through the Space Coast and Daytona Beach. Huge progress between late September and late October. These drought monitor images end in late October and do not account for the latest deluge we have just enjoyed. EPIC October unfortunately excluding Jacksonville westward through the panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 The panhandle will get their rain soon. As these front's start making there way into Florida the energy associated with them usually slides off to the NE taking most of the rain with it. Before it does though the panhandle usually gets a good soaking then we get the dry FROPA down here. FROPA meaning frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 So, I have not had the opportunity to post a formal winter outlook, generally due to too much work, but per a request from Eyewall2005 I'll share some ideas in case anyone wants to get a discussion going. ENSO tends to be amongst the most predictable variables used to make a winter outlook, and it appears quite likely that we are entering a weak to moderate La Nina. Many on AmericanWX have called it a 2nd year Nina, but unlike traditional 2nd year Ninas (55-56, 74-75, 99-00), the summer went ENSO neutral and we have a lot more grounds to make up for to get back to mod Nina. PDO has also been quite negative recently, and I expect it to remain so for at least the first half of winter. Good ENSO and PDO analogues this year are 61-62, 62-63, 67-68, 00-01, and 08-09. A strengthening -ENSO with a persistent -PDO generally acts to strengthen the southeast ridge, as we've already been witnessing this Nov. However, MJO in the 3 and 4 regions plus a recent +NAO has acted to exacerbate this effect. Later this month I expect to see the MJO trend towards a cooler regime and NAO go neutral/negative, weakening the southeast ridge. Unfortunately, it is very difficult to predict what the MJO will do thereafter. 30-year NAO and AO cycles are both trending negative, and 6-month lag-time autocorrelations also suggest negative values this winter. We saw what a very negative AO and NAOcould do last December, with record breaking cold in FL. I would not expect to see the same magnitude of extreme cold as the last 2 winters in FL, but I would expect, overall, below normal temperatures in FL this winter. The subtropical jet has been anomalously weak this year, as evidenced by the TX drought. That said, as long as La Nina does not become stronger than borderline moderate, the subtropical jet should remain sufficient for a few rain events in FL this winter. I would also expect deepening east coast troughs to be accompanied by a squall line or 2 this winter as the NAO trends negative, with drier conditions for the second half of winter. So overall I would expect a slightly cooler and drier winter than normal this year in FL, but a lot depends upon the battle between -ENSO and -NAO, and what the MJO decides to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 So, I have not had the opportunity to post a formal winter outlook, generally due to too much work, but per a request from Eyewall2005 I'll share some ideas in case anyone wants to get a discussion going. ENSO tends to be amongst the most predictable variables used to make a winter outlook, and it appears quite likely that we are entering a weak to moderate La Nina. Many on AmericanWX have called it a 2nd year Nina, but unlike traditional 2nd year Ninas (55-56, 74-75, 99-00), the summer went ENSO neutral and we have a lot more grounds to make up for to get back to mod Nina. PDO has also been quite negative recently, and I expect it to remain so for at least the first half of winter. Good ENSO and PDO analogues this year are 61-62, 62-63, 67-68, 00-01, and 08-09. A strengthening -ENSO with a persistent -PDO generally acts to strengthen the southeast ridge, as we've already been witnessing this Nov. However, MJO in the 3 and 4 regions plus a recent +NAO has acted to exacerbate this effect. Later this month I expect to see the MJO trend towards a cooler regime and NAO go neutral/negative, weakening the southeast ridge. Unfortunately, it is very difficult to predict what the MJO will do thereafter. 30-year NAO and AO cycles are both trending negative, and 6-month lag-time autocorrelations also suggest negative values this winter. We saw what a very negative AO and NAOcould do last December, with record breaking cold in FL. I would not expect to see the same magnitude of extreme cold as the last 2 winters in FL, but I would expect, overall, below normal temperatures in FL this winter. The subtropical jet has been anomalously weak this year, as evidenced by the TX drought. That said, as long as La Nina does not become stronger than borderline moderate, the subtropical jet should remain sufficient for a few rain events in FL this winter. I would also expect deepening east coast troughs to be accompanied by a squall line or 2 this winter as the NAO trends negative, with drier conditions for the second half of winter. So overall I would expect a slightly cooler and drier winter than normal this year in FL, but a lot depends upon the battle between -ENSO and -NAO, and what the MJO decides to do. whhat? so no snow Thanks.... great write up. I am hoping for a few of those frontal squall lines to keep things from getting bone dry. This October will carry us for a month or so in that regards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted November 3, 2011 Author Share Posted November 3, 2011 From now until May is my favorite. Basically California weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Heard there were pretty big waves today, so went to North Miami Beach and definitely saw some big ones. Numerous 4-6', with a couple 8' plus! Should be more big waves tomorrow with that long northeasterly fetch over the Atlantic, tho probably not quite as big as today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypatia Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 The Melbourne WSR-88D will be getting an upgrade to dual pol in January! http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/?n=dualpol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Tomorrow's weather should be gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 38 degrees this morning? That's it, I'm done with winter. C'mon summer. Only six and half months till the rainy season. Man it's going to be a long cold winter. I wonder if you are considered a snow bird if you leave Florida to go to a warmer climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 38 degrees this morning? That's it, I'm done with winter. C'mon summer. Only six and half months till the rainy season. Man it's going to be a long cold winter. I wonder if you are considered a snow bird if you leave Florida to go to a warmer climate. Its such a difference whether you're in north FL or south FL. Our low was 65, and back to lows in the mid 70s by Sun night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 38 degrees this morning? That's it, I'm done with winter. C'mon summer. Only six and half months till the rainy season. Man it's going to be a long cold winter. I wonder if you are considered a snow bird if you leave Florida to go to a warmer climate. 38 degrees? I feel your pain as all we have to look forward to is endless gorgeous weather. Right now I am doing some work in my back screened porch with the most delightful cool breeze ever and deep turquoise sun lit skies. lol Its such a difference whether you're in north FL or south FL. Our low was 65, and back to lows in the mid 70s by Sun night. I was in the low 50's last night. Halfway between you and ocala as north / south goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Big time surprise rain tonight for MBY. At least a half inch and still coming down At first showers started light and then moved to moderate and nearly heavy. North to south moving precipitation ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 Its such a difference whether you're in north FL or south FL. Our low was 65, and back to lows in the mid 70s by Sun night. LOL, you said it. I'd kill for 38 degrees. It's been so hot the last 2 days. My apartment was 86 at 6 PM tonight. I opened everyhing up and hopefully it will cool off soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 LOL, you said it. I'd kill for 38 degrees. It's been so hot the last 2 days. My apartment was 86 at 6 PM tonight. I opened everyhing up and hopefully it will cool off soon. 86? AC is your friend. Unless you're like me and can't justify using it in Winter. We also got a half inch from that squall line. It had been pretty dry. Although I hate Winter I love them squall lines. Hopefully they will be coming through a bit more now that we are later in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Numerous streamer showers and even a couple brief heavier bursts should keep things interesting today. Thanksgiving looks to be quite comfortable with slightly cooler temps and lower humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Numerous streamer showers and even a couple brief heavier bursts should keep things interesting today. Thanksgiving looks to be quite comfortable with slightly cooler temps and lower humidity. Nothing like FL November rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 brrrr .... Upper 40's FTW tonight 11-30-11 on the Treasure Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Man it's amazing how nice weather shuts down this thread. There has to be some deep southern storms on the horizon. 36 the the other night. That's about the only action lately. Did anyone ever find out what happened to flwxwatcher45? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Man it's amazing how nice weather shuts down this thread. There has to be some deep southern storms on the horizon. 36 the the other night. That's about the only action lately. Did anyone ever find out what happened to flwxwatcher45? Pretty boring without any prospects of our first winter squall line on the horizon. Sometimes have to wait a while in a Nina. Never found out about flwxwatcher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Few weak frontal passages but overall the subtropical ridge comes back over us in days 7-10. Definitely not like last December, but then again last December was unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Few weak frontal passages but overall the subtropical ridge comes back over us in days 7-10. Definitely not like last December, but then again last December was unusual. Up north when I put out Xmas lights I always stressed about water proofing every connection. Down here I got lazy real quick and leave them all naked knowing there will be a fat chance for major precipitation to short something out. No problems yet in holiday season # 3 down here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Off to NJ for 3 months. It's supposed to snow Wed night. Crap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Off to NJ for 3 months. It's supposed to snow Wed night. Crap! Shouldn't that be the other way around. You go to Jersey in the summertime. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Off to NJ for 3 months. It's supposed to snow Wed night. Crap! I am sure you will see alot more than whatever Wed night has in store if you are staying into March lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Shouldn't that be the other way around. You go to Jersey in the summertime. Right? It should be the other way around. LOL. I'm going up to help out my family. I haven't been up there in 2 years. The last time I saw snow was October of 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.