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First real look at cool temps discussion


Ellinwood

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lol, I've heard that mantra for 30 years. Certainly the role of the met is and will be changing but mesoscale system will remain a problem for quite awhile.

well it was tongue in cheeck of course. tho if you assume moore's law to be correct -- and if the funding is there (which is probably a bigger question) -- the next 10 yrs should see more advances than the past 30.

i just sometimes think the models dont get enough credit. most forecasts are like 80%-90% model output. then you have mesoscale ones like t-storms where meteorologists don't really have much clue on the true specifics either.

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well it was tongue in cheeck of course. tho if you assume moore's law to be correct -- and if the funding is there (which is probably a bigger question) -- the next 10 yrs should see more advances than the past 30.

i just sometimes think the models dont get enough credit. most forecasts are like 80%-90% model output. then you have mesoscale ones like t-storms where meteorologists don't really have much clue on the true specifics either.

Certainly most forecasts are probably 90% model output, maybe more and some like to dis the models and imply that forecasteres should ignore them. if you look at QPF scores, they have not obeyed Moore's law. The improvements have been pretty linear despite the massive increases in computing power.

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Certainly most forecasts are probably 90% model output, maybe more and some like to dis the models and imply that forecasteres should ignore them. if you look at QPF scores, they have not obeyed Moore's law. The improvements have been pretty linear despite the massive increases in computing power.

that's good to know..

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