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September 2011 General Discussion/Obs

Chicago Storm

By Chicago Storm,
in Central/Western States

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Tim from Springfield (IL)

Tim from Springfield (IL)

Posted
Posted

Might as well get this thread going...

Looks like a warm start to the month.

I was thinking the same thing at the same time as you, Chicago Storm (right when I posted my thread--so the two could be merged if possible)--after viewing the hot start to meteorological autumn in store for much of the Midwest. Weatherscan in Springfield is already forecasting 95 Thursday and 99 Friday--while NWS Lincoln expecting mid-90s for those two days. Accuweather at this point is backing off the intensity of the heat ("just" 92 on Thursday and "only" 90 on Friday before "just" upper 80s next Sat./Sun.)--we'll see who wins (lately for temps it seems like TWC's Weatherscan usually wins in the end).

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

I'd like atleast one more good severe event before we are done.

Yeah, but it doesn't have to be 90 for that to happen in the fall months. Although we've had some events in September, I typically look toward October/November which is when the second season really kicks in.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Ya i can only name a few good september events around here in the past several years.

We had a really good one in 1999 (wasn't here then)...multiple supercells moved across the area. One of them produced a wind gust over 100 mph and an EF1 not too far away. Then there's the super long track tornado that went through Indy in 2002...probably up there with the Oct 1989 snowstorm on the fluke scale.

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

Posted
Posted

We had a really good one in 1999 (wasn't here then)...multiple supercells moved across the area. One of them produced a wind gust over 100 mph and an EF1 not too far away. Then there's the super long track tornado that went through Indy in 2002...probably up there with the Oct 1989 snowstorm on the fluke scale.

I'd be interested in looking at the radar data of those two events if you could find the dates, il go look for them lol

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

I'd be interested in looking at the radar data of those two events if you could find the dates, il go look for them lol

9/28/99 and 9/20/02

Info is easy to find for the 02 event. Here is the writeup for the 99 event:

A squall line moved across the northwestern portions of the IND CWA producing large hail, damaging winds and an F1 tornado. The damage occurred in the vicinity of a well-defined bow echo. Damage began across northeastern sections of Warren county as numerous trees were reported down at Pine Village at 605 pm est. The severe weather then spread across northern Tippecanoe county. Trees were reported down at Montmorencie, West Lafayette and Klondyke, where a wind gusts of 103 mph was measured. By the time the storm reached Lafayette, golfball size hail was reported. Golfball size hail reports continued as the storm moved across Buck Creek. In addition, a trained spotter reported estimated wind gusts at 65 to 70 mph. An F1 tornado touched down at Battleground just to the north of the bow apex of the squall line cutting almost a 4 mile long and 1/2 mile wide path. 3 tool barns were destroyed and a 5th wheel camper was overturned injuring one person. Also, a Ford Taurus was crushed by a fallen tree. At least 2 dozen structures received minor damage. In addition, there were numerous fallen trees facing various directions and siding from various houses was found thrown in the trees. Most of the damage was along Huston Road and state road 225. Hail damage was extensive from Battle Ground to Buck Creek. Many houses had numerous golfball size holes in the siding from the hail being thrown at such high speeds. The thunderstorm moved into southern Carroll county just after 700 pm est and continued to produce golfball size hail from Radnor to Flora. In addition, a barn was destroyed in Radnor.

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

Posted
Posted

9/28/99 and 9/20/02

Info is easy to find for the 02 event. Here is the writeup for the 99 event:

A squall line moved across the northwestern portions of the IND CWA producing large hail, damaging winds and an F1 tornado. The damage occurred in the vicinity of a well-defined bow echo. Damage began across northeastern sections of Warren county as numerous trees were reported down at Pine Village at 605 pm est. The severe weather then spread across northern Tippecanoe county. Trees were reported down at Montmorencie, West Lafayette and Klondyke, where a wind gusts of 103 mph was measured. By the time the storm reached Lafayette, golfball size hail was reported. Golfball size hail reports continued as the storm moved across Buck Creek. In addition, a trained spotter reported estimated wind gusts at 65 to 70 mph. An F1 tornado touched down at Battleground just to the north of the bow apex of the squall line cutting almost a 4 mile long and 1/2 mile wide path. 3 tool barns were destroyed and a 5th wheel camper was overturned injuring one person. Also, a Ford Taurus was crushed by a fallen tree. At least 2 dozen structures received minor damage. In addition, there were numerous fallen trees facing various directions and siding from various houses was found thrown in the trees. Most of the damage was along Huston Road and state road 225. Hail damage was extensive from Battle Ground to Buck Creek. Many houses had numerous golfball size holes in the siding from the hail being thrown at such high speeds. The thunderstorm moved into southern Carroll county just after 700 pm est and continued to produce golfball size hail from Radnor to Flora. In addition, a barn was destroyed in Radnor.

ok sweetness thanks, going to to get the radar data for a night when im bored.

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ukrocks

ukrocks

Posted
Posted

I'm ready for a tropical system to make its way up here or a frontal system to bring us some rain. We have not had rain in 10 days and a lot of the models don't show rain for at least another 10-15 days. I'm just ready for more active weather. But I might be waiting for mid-late October for that. This is one hot summer. Hope this transitions into a snowy winter.

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radionicist

radionicist

Posted
Posted

I'm ready for a tropical system to make its way up here or a frontal system to bring us some rain.

No offense, but I hope not. The remnants of Erin left me with two feet of water in my office in August 2007, and the remnants of Ike caused the second highest amount of property damage from a single weather event in Ohio history.

I like my tropical systems where they belong, in the tropics. :)

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

12z NAM looks toasty for Thursday.

EDIT: Ahh my bad, should have posted this in the Sept thread. Mods feel free to move this over.

NAM_221_2011082912_F81_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png

Been watching this system for a while now. Guidance has been suggesting it for a while but kept delaying the arrival, but it is definitely a significant arctic intrusion into the US and has a late fall/winter like frontal structure to it. It is going to wipe clean (in terms of moisture/theta-e) much of the northern/central plains and Great Lakes.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Looks like a good chance of mid/upper 90's here later this week. Can't entirely rule out 100 on Friday but setup appears borderline at this time. I remember looking at IND data and finding that they have an increased occurrence of another 100 degree day in years that they had one earlier in the summer. I would imagine the same is true for LAF.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

Looks like a good chance of mid/upper 90's here later this week. Can't entirely rule out 100 on Friday but setup appears borderline at this time. I remember looking at IND data and finding that they have an increased occurrence of another 100 degree day in years that they had one earlier in the summer. I would imagine the same is true for LAF.

WL COOP has only hit 100º in September three times in its history (days below). There's about 5 or so 99's in there as well. According to IND's site, LAF has never done it. But I'm not sure as to if they have all the data.

9/7/1939...100º

9/9/1933...100º

9/15/1939...100º

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

WL COOP has only hit 100º in September three times in its history (days below). There's about 5 or so 99's in there as well. According to IND's site, LAF has never done it. But I'm not sure as to if they have all the data.

9/7/1939...100º

9/9/1933...100º

9/15/1939...100º

Airport probably would've done it in the 1930's but data doesn't go back that far. 00z Euro was showing 100 on Friday so it's definitely something to keep an eye on. If we had the same setup in July, I'd probably be more bullish. Considerably less daylight now doesn't help but Sept 2 is not way different than mid/late August as far as that.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

Airport probably would've done it in the 1930's but data doesn't go back that far. 00z Euro was showing 100 on Friday so it's definitely something to keep an eye on. If we had the same setup in July, I'd probably be more bullish. Considerably less daylight now doesn't help but Sept 2 is not way different than mid/late August as far as that.

Good points. I'll go under for Friday, something like 97-98 sounds about right.

Anyway, I'll be so glad when we're done talking about this crap. :)

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

Been watching this system for a while now. Guidance has been suggesting it for a while but kept delaying the arrival, but it is definitely a significant arctic intrusion into the US and has a late fall/winter like frontal structure to it. It is going to wipe clean (in terms of moisture/theta-e) much of the northern/central plains and Great Lakes.

Yeah the NAM shows 100 degrees in southeast North Dakota, with 60s over the western part of the state Thursday. Gonna be interesting to see how this all evolves.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Good points. I'll go under for Friday, something like 97-98 sounds about right.

Anyway, I'll be so glad when we're done talking about this crap. :)

I see what you're saying about missing data. Airport data from 1954 appears to be missing. The COOP site located 8 miles south hit 102 on September 6. Wonder if the airport hit 100 on that day.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

I see what you're saying about missing data. Airport data from 1954 appears to be missing. The COOP site located 8 miles south hit 102 on September 6. Wonder if the airport hit 100 on that day.

Might have. 98º at the WL COOP though on 9/6/54. There's a lot of missing data for LAF unfortunately.

I could be wrong, but it seems the data that IND has coincides with what the Utah Climate Center site has...or doesn't have. Back in July when we hit 100º, the J&C had a met from IND that said 1997 was the last occurrence. Which is wrong as we did it in 1999 obviously, but the data for 1999 is missing via Utah.

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