tornadojay Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This is virtually an impossible forecast to make... The winter is tough enough with mid latitude cyclone tracks along the east coast, but climatologically, they are not only much more frequent, but the synoptic features involved are more easily identifiable through the models... in other words, we can look at upper level features and know when we think the surface reflection is a bunch of BS. With this though, there are so many other subtleties to factor in.. not only with it's surrounding environment, but just the internal structure of the storm itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Maximum winds on LI based on the GFS don't exceed 50kts (sustained, I presume). So the waves/surge might be a bit of a problem but this isn't the worst case scenario by any means... doubt anyone would see sustained hurricane force winds at least on this run (hope I don't have to come back and eat crow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Maximum winds on LI based on the GFS don't exceed 50kts (sustained, I presume). So the waves/surge might be a bit of a problem but this isn't the worst case scenario by any means... doubt anyone would see sustained hurricane force winds at least on this run (hope I don't have to come back and eat crow). Doubt that. What do soundings show for KISP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Maximum winds on LI based on the GFS don't exceed 50kts (sustained, I presume). So the waves/surge might be a bit of a problem but this isn't the worst case scenario by any means... doubt anyone would see sustained hurricane force winds at least on this run (hope I don't have to come back and eat crow). You cannot rely on wind maps this far in advance. If a well formed tropical system made landfall as advertised by this run, at the advertised pressure, most of long island east of queens would see higher winds than what the graphics are indicating. I feel like future wind maps are about as reliable as those absurd total snowfall maps. We can infer based on strength, speed, and track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Maximum winds on LI based on the GFS don't exceed 50kts (sustained, I presume). So the waves/surge might be a bit of a problem but this isn't the worst case scenario by any means... doubt anyone would see sustained hurricane force winds at least on this run (hope I don't have to come back and eat crow). The storm is absolutely crawling on the GFS. Besides a possibly historic flood threat inland... I think the winds would disappoint given the long amount of time over less than ideal conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 looks like an eye trying to form on the last frame or two. http://classic.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201109_sat.html#a_topad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 swing and a miss to the east, misses even NC and the east trend continues yea right this is a swing and miss - 10 + inches of rain - major flooding inland and along the coast is a swing and a miss ? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfsp72132.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 You cannot rely on wind maps this far in advance. If a well formed tropical system made landfall as advertised by this run, at the advertised pressure, most of long island east of queens would see higher winds than what the graphics are indicating. I feel like future wind maps are about as reliable as those absurd total snowfall maps. We can infer based on strength, speed, and track. Maximum winds on LI based on the GFS don't exceed 50kts (sustained, I presume). So the waves/surge might be a bit of a problem but this isn't the worst case scenario by any means... doubt anyone would see sustained hurricane force winds at least on this run (hope I don't have to come back and eat crow). You think I don't know this? Read again.... The storm is absolutely crawling on the GFS. Besides a possibly historic flood threat inland... I think the winds would disappoint given the long amount of time over less than ideal conditions. Yep. I don't know how people are expecting this to stay a formidable Category 1/2 hurricane when its just drifting northward lazily this far north in latitude. I'm not saying this won't be a powerful storm - I'm as excited as anyone - but on this run it was not a powerful hurricane hitting Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 Doubt that. What do soundings show for KISP? Not doubtful given the trajectory of the storm over poor conditions for an extended period of time with northward movement. The best winds will be on the east side of the cyclone and the northwest side could actually be pretty calm in this type of scenario as far as winds go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 You think I don't know this? Read again.... Yep. I don't know how people are expecting this to stay a formidable Category 1/2 hurricane when its just drifting northward lazily this far north in latitude. I'm not saying this won't be a powerful storm - I'm as excited as anyone - but on this run it was not a powerful hurricane hitting Long Island. CT rain has talk about this alot in the sne thread, how you need it to have alot of speed ripping north to get hurricane force winds in our area. The slow nature of this run verbatiam would be huge flooding problems and beach erosion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 yes i spoke to early, im pretty shocked it didn't head NE after NC You need to think a little more before posting the negative crap. Actually, more than a little. Just a heads-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I am more worried about the excessive amount of rain indicated. We do not need anymore rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Now on to the Euro, as long as we don't see a big shift eastward, game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Not doubtful given the trajectory of the storm over poor conditions for an extended period of time with northward movement. The best winds will be on the east side of the cyclone and the northwest side could actually be pretty calm in this type of scenario as far as winds go. That's why I said KISP or KFOK. I'll post soundings in a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 CT rain has talk about this alot in the sne thread, how you need it to have alot of speed ripping north to get hurricane force winds in our area. The slow nature of this run verbatiam would be huge flooding problems and beach erosion. Yes. This storm is meandering in cooler than ideal waters and atmospheric conditions. The hurricane analogs being thrown around the past few days almost all sped up the coast at great speeds. When that happens the storms can gain latitude while holding on to stronger winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 That's why I said KISP or KFOK. I'll post soundings in a little. You can see the surface winds on twisterdata.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I don't think anyone is thinking that most of us are going to see sustained Hurricane force winds out of this, especially if the eye passes to the east, but this will be a huge rain maker, and the water will have time to pile up along the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 My favorite part of tracking a hurricane is when it "wakes up" for the first time and the eye becomes visible. Irene is about to have that occur. Visible looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 My favorite part of tracking a hurricane is when it "wakes up" for the first time and the eye becomes visible. Irene is about to have that occur. Visible looks great. I disagree, cloud tops are warming, and its ingesting plenty off dry air off Hisp, which is working into the inner core, IR loop looks awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 sw shear and dry air getting entrained into the circulation is taking its toll on the eastern half of Irene, shear is forecast to lessen and as Irene moves away from Hispanola, it should have a strengthening period during tonights DM into tom morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 I disagree, cloud tops are warming, and its ingesting plenty off dry air off Hisp, which is working into the inner core, IR loop looks awful. It looks fine as far as the eye goes for now..I said a few hours ago that dry air entrainment was occurring, and I also said a few hours ago that it was interacting with Hispaniola on it's southern 1/3. so while the eye that emerges may not be perfect, it's trying very hard to do so. It will probably be brief while the system reorganizes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 For those debating how windy it's going to be, may want to take a peak into the main hurricane thread. Excellent disco about wind speeds and synoptic models http://www.americanw...post__p__904101 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 can somebody post a visible satellite image? I am on my phone and can't upload it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 can somebody post a visible satellite image? I am on my phone and can't upload it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 image thanks josh. you can see some clearing near the center but overall the area of clearing seems to have a wobble to it...likely an indication that dry air and other land influences are inhibiting the system from becoming very organized. we could see better organization later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 12z cmc per main thread. Brushes outer banks then heads to eastern li Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 obviously the track the 12z gfs takes would have weakening due to the cooler waters but tropical force winds are likely across the area. I also see signs of a PRE developing on the GFS as it may have some interaction with the second trough to Irene's north. Rainfall will certainly be a big story but with how much rain we have had, sustained winds 30-40 mph with tropical storm force gust could certainly do damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 12z GGEM appears to have made a big shift west: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Latest visible image shows outflow has been disturbed greatly on the nw and sw flank of the storm due to sw shear, as well as dry air being ingested into the core of the storm off dowsloping winds over Hispanola. However, with shear lessening and dm tonight I think Irene goes nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 im just getting caught up on this thread....while on my laptop during my lunch hour. This model you've been looking at poses a serious risk from NJ shore to LI to NE...Whomever said swing and a miss needs to learn how to read models. With that being said... Very concerned about how much water this thing does carry up the coast...it's going to have a few days to bomb out over the gulf stream before getting more north of NC... Last year with Earl, it brought beach erosion and some fun waves to manasquan inlet NJ...and it was party sunny with a humid breeze... With this setup, all of manasquan beach would be underwater and evacuated.... Still five days out, but that model paints a very disturbing picture for shore residents and one that should be watched closely outside of us who are weather geeks....I dont know what the local NY stations are doing as far as media hype....here in the Susquehanna Valley of PA we will probably escape a worst case scenario, but I'm going to be in Belmar NJ at mom's house this weekend, and she's starting to grow very concerned by what she's watching on the tv, and she doesn't know a thing about the weather. I just don't like the thought of a storm bombing to a cat 4 and having that surge follow it up the coast....let alone the outside chance of a hurricane force wind gust.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.