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Pittsburgh, PA Thread

RitualOfTheTrout

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psnnstater77

psnnstater77

Posted
Posted

With my untrained quick looking of models here is what I get so far from Sunday-Monday storm.

Latest 12GFS has low tracking directly over us and then a new one taking over on the coast.

My guess would be that warm air ahead of the storm would bring rain on Sunday turning to snow sunday night and monday?

Anybody with more experience want to add their input?

I know it is still very early and models will change.

At least we still have something to track.

NWS is going with this too...

Give me a blizzard or a washout.. I don't want ice at all.

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Thunderhead

Thunderhead

Posted
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12z GFS is rain to snow showers for PIT. 700 mb low goes NW of PIT. Not good for any significant synoptic snow in W PA. Quite cold behind the storm though...maybe some LES but winds seem to be too northerly for a good fetch.

Btw, the 0z ECMWF is in general agreement with the 12z GFS for sensible wx impacts in PIT. The ECMWF might have better upper level wind profile for LES/lake-enhanced snow behind the storm.

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lwg8tr0514

lwg8tr0514

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NWS is going with this too...

Give me a blizzard or a washout.. I don't want ice at all.

DT noticed that also, the East based NAO and the action out in the EastPAC was throwing a monkey wrench into the low coming east. I suspect we will see some more waffling on the models, east then west then east...then settle on some solution by the end of the week. We got lucky last Winter not many Lucy pulling the football away type deals.

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Thunderhead

Thunderhead

Posted
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DT noticed that also, the East based NAO and the action out in the EastPAC was throwing a monkey wrench into the low coming east. I suspect we will see some more waffling on the models, east then west then east...then settle on some solution by the end of the week. We got lucky last Winter not many Lucy pulling the football away type deals.

Are you pburgh01? Welcome back!

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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

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12z GFS is rain to snow showers for PIT. 700 mb low goes NW of PIT. Not good for any significant synoptic snow in W PA. Quite cold behind the storm though...maybe some LES but winds seem to be too northerly for a good fetch.

Btw, the 0z ECMWF is in general agreement with the 12z GFS for sensible wx impacts in PIT. The ECMWF might have better upper level wind profile for LES/lake-enhanced snow behind the storm.

Pertaining to today's 12z GFS I agree, very bad setup for snow in our area and I would bet we start as rain and stay as rain until we get some wrap around should today's 12z verify. I would put money on the more western solution now but with the wild jumps from run to run I wouldn't be surprised to see things change. Lets see if the 12z ECMWF holds close to its 00z run.

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northpittweather

northpittweather

Posted
Posted

Go back the last 8 model runs, which have shown a major hit for us on the GFS Model, only 2 of those runs show minor differences with some mixing issues, but based on what is going on in the model trends, this sets us up for a major snowstorm or blizzard

I have a gut feeling, and i think schools could be closed for several days

:snowman:

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pawx1

pawx1

Posted
Posted

.

from pitt.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --HIGHLIGHTS

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE

* UNCERTAINTY IN STORM TRACK AND PTYPE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY

* LAKE EFFECT / ENHANCED SNOW EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK

NAO FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE NEGATIVE WHICH INDICATES BELOW NORMAL

TEMPERATURES PERSIST. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE SLOWLY COMING INTO

BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK SUN NGT AND

MON. GEFS MSLP STANDARD DEVIATIONS /STD/ OF -4 TO -5 ARE

FORECAST...WHILE H8 TEMPS ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2 TO -3 STD. THE

OPERATIONAL GFS HAS SHIFTED THE CYCLONE TRACK WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS

MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. THE LATTER WAS ELECTED TO CONSTRUCT

THE LONG RANGE DIGITAL DATABASE.

FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AS LONG RANGE MODELS DEVELOP A DEEP

CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE

BELOW 980MB PROGGED BY 12Z MON IN NEW ENGLAND. DID NOT GET TO FANCY

WITH PTYPE...RAN WITH A RAIN / SNOW MIX AND LET THE DETAILS BE

WORKED OUT AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. INTRODUCED VERBIAGE IN

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK /HWO/ REGARDING THE POTENTIAL WINTER

STORM.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE LAKE ENHANCED / OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS

IN WAKE OF THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE.

H8 TEMPS ARE FORECAST AROUND -15C AND WITH ANOTHER LAKE HURON

CONNECTION SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON THE BACK SIDE COULD MIRROR WHAT HAS

BEEN RECEIVED OVER THE PAST 48 TO 72 HOURS.

ANOTHER THING TO WATCH OUT FOR NEXT WEEK IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB

ZERO WIND CHILLS...ALSO WILL INCLUDE THAT IN THE HWO THIS AFTERNOON.-- End Changed Discussion --

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psnnstater77

psnnstater77

Posted
Posted

Go back the last 8 model runs, which have shown a major hit for us on the GFS Model, only 2 of those runs show minor differences with some mixing issues, but based on what is going on in the model trends, this sets us up for a major snowstorm or blizzard

I have a gut feeling, and i think schools could be closed for several days

:snowman:

Mets can't go off gut feelings..The latest models are going away from a huge hit and more of a slop storm. There is time to go back, but that line is way to close for my liking. I think we could have a cold rain with some mixing, don't know how much moisture Pittsburgh will have on backside for some snow showers.

Anyways, its snowing as hard now as it has the last two days. I can see me getting another 2-4 tonight, which would bring me up to 10-12 for this event. Chickoree Mt was at 16"

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northpittweather

northpittweather

Posted
Posted

Mets can't go off gut feelings..The latest models are going away from a huge hit and more of a slop storm. There is time to go back, but that line is way to close for my liking. I think we could have a cold rain with some mixing, don't know how much moisture Pittsburgh will have on backside for some snow showers.

Anyways, its snowing as hard now as it has the last two days. I can see me getting another 2-4 tonight, which would bring me up to 10-12 for this event. Chickoree Mt was at 16"

psnnstater77, you are probably loving it right now, here it's been coming down for hours now and some very heavy snow here :snowman:

This storm coming up is like :popcorn:

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north pgh

north pgh

Posted
Posted

BTW, This event should show how hard it is to predict these storms. Its almost like anything over a 12-24 hour forecast is guessing. They had snow dying off today, but now its tomorrow. Wouldn't shock me if we see snow the whole way into Thursday..:snowman::snowman::snowman::snowman::snowman:

Yes, and after this Sunday when the storm comes through we will most likely have 3 or 4 more days of this lake effect activity again. :snowman:

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PittWeatherWatch

PittWeatherWatch

Posted
Posted

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

242 PM EST TUE DEC 7 2010

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ020-021-029-031-073-075-

WVZ001>004-012-021-022-081945-

TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-

MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-WASHINGTON-

GREENE-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-

MARION-MONONGALIA-

242 PM EST TUE DEC 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST

PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF

WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE SOME SLICK SPOTS ON

UNTREATED ROADS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE EASTERN UNITED STATES

LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK...SIGNIFICANT

ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IN WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE...LAKE

ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR DIVING SOUTH FROM

CANADA...MAY CREATE SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

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psnnstater77

psnnstater77

Posted
Posted

I know but there will be strong winds off the lake and temps will even be colder.

A couple inches is fine by me.

You're probably looking at the same setup as the past 48-72 hours. Some areas saw alot, some none..

I am still not sold on the LES After, I think a few things could go against us for a huge setup.

The actual storm is what will be the think to look at.

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blackngoldrules

blackngoldrules

Posted
Posted

Blah on LES.. I lucked out this time, but its so hit and miss...

Well, you know that's how I feel about LES too and, as usual, I didn't even luck out this time when most of the rest of you seemed to do pretty well with it. We'll just keep watching these crazy models to see where that low is going to go this weekend. Fun to track anyway.
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blackngoldrules

blackngoldrules

Posted
Posted
<br />Accuweather got to be the greatest weather industry ever.. To give a given forecast this far out.<br />

<br />

<a href='http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/42659/will-weekend-snowstorm-lead-to.asp' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='nofollow external'>http://www.accuweath...orm-lead-to.asp

I wonder what our buddy Henry thinks about the weekend storm? His predictions are usually good for a laugh or two. :D

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Burghblizz

Burghblizz

Posted
Posted

here is what henry think about the storm.

http://www.accuweath...g-daddy-map.asp

Looks like he has us on the eastern fringe of the heaviest snow possibility....not to say that's real likely right now.

Henry still owes me a 25" lollypop from a couple years ago, with the apps runner that never happened (and he said the models only lost it due to a volcano eruption)

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