RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 The Euro is a 180 from 12Z. Too much. Do you mean, my accumulation guess is to much, or that the change of the Euro is so great that it cannot be seriously considered at this point? Either way, I'm assuming a majority of the 2-4 would be LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Guys, I remember from the other board that Rants gets VERY defensive if you simply disagree with him, and he immediately goes on the attack. He was attacking people before the two foot storm last year when the models shifted south and he basically wanted to cancel it...even when it started, he was still saying 3-6 4-8, even when we had 6 inches on the ground by eight at night, and saying people were wrong for saying more! He also got very defensive when I compared the snow rates to the 93 blizzard...and told me that I wasn't allowed to compare it to that... His schtick gets tiring very fast...he thinks basically that he knows more than anyone on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 12Z NAM looks to be a bit slower, with precip not starting until Later Sunday Morning / Afternoon. Looks like it would start as mix / rain then transition to snow with at least .10 qpf totals falling as snow on the last panel. Looks like it may be trying to pop a secondary but I am not sure if I am looking at it right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 12Z NAM looks to be a bit slower, with precip not starting until Later Sunday Morning / Afternoon. Looks like it would start as mix / rain then transition to snow with at least .10 qpf totals falling as snow on the last panel. Looks like it may be trying to pop a secondary but I am not sure if I am looking at it right... I was listening to Henry on Accuweather and he pointed that out also, all the models point to some secondary popping and that is what I am hanging my weenie hat on, those juicy bands coming through from a powerful low in the Hudson Valley or off the Jersey coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 12Z NAM looks to be a bit slower, with precip not starting until Later Sunday Morning / Afternoon. Looks like it would start as mix / rain then transition to snow with at least .10 qpf totals falling as snow on the last panel. Looks like it may be trying to pop a secondary but I am not sure if I am looking at it right... Honestly, I am extremely unoptimistic about this event....the GFS has looked miserable, with the primary being so weak that even if it cuts up west of us, the freezing line never makes it here...the NAM is the same thing, with what looks like a front, but most of the precip behind it, which doesn't make sense ....right now, I am thinking 1-3, 2-4 at most....unless something changes drastically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I was listening to Henry on Accuweather and he pointed that out also, all the models point to some secondary popping and that is what I am hanging my weenie hat on, those juicy bands coming through from a powerful low in the Hudson Valley or off the Jersey coast.. Henry will pump up this storm until he dies...then when everyone gets nothing he will move onto the next one. At this point, I just don't understand how he can keep saying its going to be a big storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Man...the GFS is really a joke...basically looks like the storm has turned into a clipper...all the models have handled this in a putrid manner....throwing out a radically different solution every run.. Does actually give us some decent QPF though...not sure how much is snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 Honestly, I am extremely unoptimistic about this event....the GFS has looked miserable, with the primary being so weak that even if it cuts up west of us, the freezing line never makes it here...the NAM is the same thing, with what looks like a front, but most of the precip behind it, which doesn't make sense ....right now, I am thinking 1-3, 2-4 at most....unless something changes drastically. I believe this is because the models are showing an anafront type situation. http://amsglossary.allenpress.com/glossary/search?id=anafront1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psnnstater77 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Guys, I remember from the other board that Rants gets VERY defensive if you simply disagree with him, and he immediately goes on the attack. He was attacking people before the two foot storm last year when the models shifted south and he basically wanted to cancel it...even when it started, he was still saying 3-6 4-8, even when we had 6 inches on the ground by eight at night, and saying people were wrong for saying more! He also got very defensive when I compared the snow rates to the 93 blizzard...and told me that I wasn't allowed to compare it to that... His schtick gets tiring very fast...he thinks basically that he knows more than anyone on here. Lets not start this crap.. From the old board, I believe he served under WTAE for a few years, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I believe this is because the models are showing an anafront type situation. http://amsglossary.a...ch?id=anafront1 Very Interesting. You may be right. What I don't understand is how far the models are off with speed of the system The NAM has precip not starting til late Sunday morning and GFS has the precip moving in overnight Saturday and moving at a pretty good clip. Would probably see a changeover early-late morning with this but the NAM would change later Sunday. We probably won't get a clearer picture til tomorrow's models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pittsburgh Rants Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Lets not start this crap.. From the old board, I believe he served under WTAE for a few years, no? Yeah for two years, I was close to graduating with mt Met degree, but dad got sick and I quit all. Paweatherguy is old news, he doesn't even both me anymore, most on here know my story and know I am legit. Go read the Penn State basketball thread, I am sure Weatherguy was close to being canned, but whatever. I am not going to fight with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pittsburgh Rants Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Do you mean, my accumulation guess is to much, or that the change of the Euro is so great that it cannot be seriously considered at this point? Either way, I'm assuming a majority of the 2-4 would be LES. Again Ritual, in LES You know to give a accurate accumulation in this area is hard. The totals can range from near nothing to 8" I can't see the near Pittsburgh area getting 2-4" of LES. The LES with this next week is alot worst looking then this past event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The models are still fluctuating but at this point I could see us getting 2-4 Sunday after the changeover and another 1-2 with snow showers Sunday night thru Monday night. Just going by the latest models showing a quick burst Sunday into Sunday evening. It needs to be cold enough however. I am sure everything will change again by tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Yeah for two years, I was close to graduating with mt Met degree, but dad got sick and I quit all. Paweatherguy is old news, he doesn't even both me anymore, most on here know my story and know I am legit. Go read the Penn State basketball thread, I am sure Weatherguy was close to being canned, but whatever. I am not going to fight with him. Umm...I seem to remember you got yourself banned on the other board..but whatever...if you want to take your posturing an "I'm never wrong" attitude on here as well, you might get banned on here. And no, I wasn't even closed to getting banned in the sports thread, because I was having a discussion with psu77...we disagree, but it never got to any level that would get anyone banned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Again Ritual, in LES You know to give a accurate accumulation in this area is hard. The totals can range from near nothing to 8" I can't see the near Pittsburgh area getting 2-4" of LES. The LES with this next week is alot worst looking then this past event. If you don't mind, why do you say this...I'm just judging from the flow off the lakes, and it looks like a good set up, and lots of areas in AGC did get 2-4 inches with this last event and I would not be surprised to see it happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The models are still fluctuating but at this point I could see us getting 2-4 Sunday after the changeover and another 1-2 with snow showers Sunday night thru Monday night. Just going by the latest models showing a quick burst Sunday into Sunday evening. It needs to be cold enough however. I am sure everything will change again by tonight. The models are all over the place....The UKIE I believe still has a low pretty far south of us. I don't think I have ever seen them handle a storm this poorly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pittsburgh Rants Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 If you don't mind, why do you say this...I'm just judging from the flow off the lakes, and it looks like a good set up, and lots of areas in AGC did get 2-4 inches with this last event and I would not be surprised to see it happen again. Extreme Northern part of the county saw the most, but areas of near 4" were isolated. Its not like its going to be an event where you can pick a radius and say 2-4" in this area. Pittsburgh and south saw nearly nothing at all. With this being basically a 24-36 hour LES swap, can't see huge totals overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Extreme Northern part of the county saw the most, but areas of near 4" were isolated. Its not like its going to be an event where you can pick a radius and say 2-4" in this area. Pittsburgh and south saw nearly nothing at all. With this being basically a 24-36 hour LES swap, can't see huge totals overall. Ok, fair enough...I just think in a prolonged LES event in this area, that 2-4 is a fairly good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I just love Henry. Man crush! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pittsburgh Rants Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Ok, fair enough...I just think in a prolonged LES event in this area, that 2-4 is a fairly good call. Models indicate this isn't going to be a "prolonged" LES Snow event. Looks like LES Will start Monday and start to diminish on Tuesday as winds turn. In fact, big story will be the cold air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 18z 72hr Panel of the NAM indicating heavy rain for SWPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 18z 72hr Panel of the NAM indicating heavy rain for SWPA. Still can't believe how piss poor the models have been on this one...really, to be honest, the worst handle I have ever seen them have on a storm...still a wide range of solutions being suggested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 the models have been terrible as of recent But this shows a snowstorm near us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Wow the spread and just ridiculous performance of the models is crazy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Wow the spread and just ridiculous performance of the models is crazy.. I know, this is one of those things that i have to go by my gut feeling, this will likely be a mix/snow storm for us, Too much cold air in place, i would talk about soaking rain if it was like 30 or 35 today, but it's only 20 degrees out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I know, this is one of those things that i have to go by my gut feeling, this will likely be a mix/snow storm for us, Too much cold air in place, i would talk about soaking rain if it was like 30 or 35 today, but it's only 20 degrees out Yeah I mean assuming you believe some of the models showing some rain, you would have to assume the cold air although impressive would get moved out. However depending on high placement and what not, low level cold could hang around producing ice in those situations. But as I said look at the spread, i mean you still have models like the gfs and ukie keeping us cold. The nam shows a secondary about to go up the coast, and i believe the euro had a secondary, at least last night, didn't see todays. Still a TON of uncertainty.. Heres the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Yeah I mean assuming you believe some of the models showing some rain, you would have to assume the cold air although impressive would get moved out. However depending on high placement and what not, low level cold could hang around producing ice in those situations. But as I said look at the spread, i mean you still have models like the gfs and ukie keeping us cold. The nam shows a secondary about to go up the coast, and i believe the euro had a secondary, at least last night, didn't see todays. Still a TON of uncertainty.. Heres the gfs If that forecast held we maybe looking at 5-7" because the ratios at the end with high winds and 20 degree temps would be 15:1 or more. Call me the contrarian but the data just does not show a huge rainstorm, some at the outset but it wil be a transient thing. Not becuase I want it to be so, but becuase the forecast models show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 If that forecast held we maybe looking at 5-7" because the ratios at the end with high winds and 20 degree temps would be 15:1 or more. Call me the contrarian but the data just does not show a huge rainstorm, some at the outset but it wil be a transient thing. Not becuase I want it to be so, but becuase the forecast models show it. i think a 6 to 12 inch storm is a good bet, plus lake effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psnnstater77 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I know, this is one of those things that i have to go by my gut feeling, this will likely be a mix/snow storm for us, Too much cold air in place, i would talk about soaking rain if it was like 30 or 35 today, but it's only 20 degrees out What does the temp today have to do with a storm that is 48-72 hours still away? Saturday could reach upper 30's.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 i think a 6 to 12 inch storm is a good bet, plus lake effect 6-12....no. 3-6, at the very most at this point...maybe 7 or 8 with LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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