Pittsburgh, PA Thread

[2001kx]

Do remember, that is over 120 hours, but I think most of the precip in that time frame would be this event.

yes i see that and i am fine with it

make it happen-lol

[psnnstater77]

Yeah, they're counting the LES with the watch. They're expecting a pretty strong LES event Sunday night into Monday. I still think we see 1-3 from the storm itself. After that, someone could see several more inches of LES and some of us may only get an inch or two depending on how the bands set up. With Huron possibly getting involved Monday, I expect that will be our best chance of some decent LES accumulations.

Again, LES is so hit and miss in this area.. No doubt I can see alot being 1800 feet, but South Hills and City usually sees nothing.

[Paweatherguy1]

Again, LES is so hit and miss in this area.. No doubt I can see alot being 1800 feet, but South Hills and City usually sees nothing.

Well, apparently the NWS disagrees with you...I know it is hit and miss, we all know it is hit and miss, but it looks like a good LES setup county wide for 1-4 inches after the main storm.

[blackngoldrules]

Again, LES is so hit and miss in this area.. No doubt I can see alot being 1800 feet, but South Hills and City usually sees nothing.

I don't expect to see a lot from LES with this particular event, in my area ( I never expect a lot from LES ), but I don't expect to get absolutely nothing either. I'm going by how the NWS is describing it in their discussion too. If you read my post again, I basically said that someone could end up with several inches and some of us just an inch or two. I expect my area to be closer to the inch or two. With Huron possibly getting involved and strong NNW winds crossing both lakes, this event may be a little more potent than the typical LES event. And it just always depends on where you live and if you get lucky enough to get hit with some persistent bands. I don't do well with LES too often, I've said that before, but I have had some luck in the past where events similar to this one coming up dumped some decent LES accumulations my way. When I say decent, I mean the inch or two I already mentioned. The mountains east of me and the counties north of me (Beaver, Butler and north) will have a better shot at the several inches I mentioned.

[psnnstater77]

Well, apparently the NWS disagrees with you...I know it is hit and miss, we all know it is hit and miss, but it looks like a good LES setup county wide for 1-4 inches after the main storm.

you think 1" is alot? 1 inch will be in the areas I state, 4 inches in mine and areas north.

[psnnstater77]

I don't expect to see a lot from LES with this particular event, in my area ( I never expect a lot from LES ), but I don't expect to get absolutely nothing either. I'm going by how the NWS is describing it in their discussion too. If you read my post again, I basically said that someone could end up with several inches and some of us just an inch or two. I expect my area to be closer to the inch or two. With Huron possibly getting involved and strong NNW winds crossing both lakes, this event may be a little more potent than the typical LES event. And it just always depends on where you live and if you get lucky enough to get hit with some persistent bands. I don't do well with LES too often, I've said that before, but I have had some luck in the past where events similar to this one coming up dumped some decent LES accumulations my way. When I say decent, I mean the inch or two I already mentioned. The mountains east of me and the counties north of me (Beaver, Butler and north) will have a better shot at the several inches I mentioned.

I agree with that and thats what I am saying, Geographically with the height differences thats the way every storm basically sets up. Comparing LES Events, the one we just got done with will be alot better then this one IMO. I still see the Pittsburgh City area getting not much snow.

[weatherman5416]

I agree with that and thats what I am saying, Geographically with the height differences thats the way every storm basically sets up. Comparing LES Events, the one we just got done with will be alot better then this one IMO. I still see the Pittsburgh City area getting not much snow.

I talked to the national weather service yesterday and i specifically asked if this les event is going to be a better set up for pittsburgh and he said it would be. He said that significant accumulations would not just be limited to the mountains and I-80 area.

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

For what it's worth, Verzyla says 2-3" by sunday night midnight (really monday midnight I guess).....then more with LES?....we'll see...maybe tomorrow morning it'll be 4-8!

[psnnstater77]

I talked to the national weather service yesterday and i specifically asked if this les event is going to be a better set up for pittsburgh and he said it would be. He said that significant accumulations would not just be limited to the mountains and I-80 area.

Again, its tough to forecast where the bands will set up.. History suggest North and Mountains..

NWS Was way off on the last LES Event, they had it winding down Tuesday and we were still getting snow Thursday morning from it. Plus they had me total at 3-4" and I ended with 8.7"

[Paweatherguy1]

Again, its tough to forecast where the bands will set up.. History suggest North and Mountains..

NWS Was way off on the last LES Event, they had it winding down Tuesday and we were still getting snow Thursday morning from it. Plus they had me total at 3-4" and I ended with 8.7"

You said you are in NE Westmoreland, and at 1900 feet or something, right...you were under a warning for like 6-12 inches.....

[Paweatherguy1]

you think 1" is alot? 1 inch will be in the areas I state, 4 inches in mine and areas north.

Where did I say one inch is a lot?

[2001kx]

they(NWS) had my county at 6-12 with locally 18 inches for the LE event.

i received 3 inches or so.

but to be fair to my north they had to be at 12 inches or more under that nice band that stuck around.

[psnnstater77]

Where did I say one inch is a lot?

"goof LES with a 1-4" county wide" There will be more 1" totals then 4"..

[psnnstater77]

they(NWS) had my county at 6-12 with locally 18 inches for the LE event.

i received 3 inches or so.

but to be fair to my north they had to be at 12 inches or more under that nice band that stuck around.

Exactly, so hard to predict totals..

[Paweatherguy1]

"goof LES with a 1-4" county wide" There will be more 1" totals then 4"..

Who knows...I think most of the North Hills saw a pretty general 2-3 with this last event...South Hills, of course less, but Murrysville reported 3 inches as well...I think a good forecast countywide is 1-4, and will probably average around 2.

[psnnstater77]

Who knows...I think most of the North Hills saw a pretty general 2-3 with this last event...South Hills, of course less, but Murrysville reported 3 inches as well...I think a good forecast countywide is 1-4, and will probably average around 2.

Murrysville is Westmoreland..some areas of the municipality is near 1300 feet.

I think North Hills is lower, highest I believe was 1097 or something. It doesn't sound alot, but with LES every difference means alot when dealing with Orthographical lifting.

[Paweatherguy1]

Murrysville is Westmoreland..some areas of the municipality is near 1300 feet.

I think North Hills is lower, highest I believe was 1097 or something. It doesn't sound alot, but with LES every difference means alot when dealing with Orthographical lifting.

Well, I think that we are really arguing semantics....1-4 in AGC with the LES after maybe 2-4 synoptic...we shall see.

[pawx1]

The last LES gave me about 11 inches. What a suprise it was! I rarely make out during LES events. They ususlly skip over me. I am hoping I will once again be in the sweet band. Oh how I love all the model changes and the suprises of mother nature. I will be able to read all your exciting remarks this weekend as I have a slight break from nursing school. I love being able to read all your post. Thanks for making it happen.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

00z NAM still painting about 1-3 from the storm itself with probably 1-2 still looking good for the LES portion. The high winds and fast temperature swing are likely to be the bigger story at this point since blowing snow will likely create visibility issues Sunday night into Monday.

[north pgh]

If you are a snow lover what a great time to be in Erie.

How many would love this forecast if you were home and didn't have to travel this week.

NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ERIE...EDINBORO...MEADVILLE

926 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

WEDNESDAY EVENING...

.OVERNIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS 25 TO 30. SOUTH

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS

5 TO 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...

MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

70 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY...RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT

SNOW ACCUMULATION. EARLY HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10

TO 15 MPH...BECOMING WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

90 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS. BLOWING SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. MUCH

COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND 18. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE

OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.MONDAY...SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. BRISK AND COLDER

WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. BLUSTERY

WITH LOWS 15 TO 20. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. BREEZY WITH

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. LOWS

15 TO 20. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS IN THE

MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 20. CHANCE OF

SNOW 70 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS

IN THE UPPER 20S.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 20.

[pawx1]

Love it! I'm so close. If I wasn't worried about getting to school on time I would have left tonight to watch it all unfold in ERIE. My husband and I LOVE Erie. We camp there on a regular basis. It is one of our favorite places to go. We spent about 14 weeks there this past summer. We drive there almost every Feb. to see the lake all frozen over. I could go on and on about how much fun we have in Erie. I would love to be there durring a great LES event..

[KPITblizz]

Nam looks juicier with the snow, post changeover, which really is most of it according to the nam. Afterwards looks like we have days of les on gfs and nam, just a matter of getting the bands to line up.

[Burghblizz]

To my semi-trained weenie eyes, this thing looks like a monster at 500MB and 850MB......but somewhat unorganized at the surface. Part of me wonders if there is a more consolidated secondary storm that is in the cards. Otherwise I see it as more an advisory type event but we'll see

[RitualOfTheTrout]

To my semi-trained weenie eyes, this thing looks like a monster at 500MB and 850MB......but somewhat unorganized at the surface. Part of me wonders if there is a more consolidated secondary storm that is in the cards. Otherwise I see it as more an advisory type event but we'll see

Problem is the system is passing to our north. Looking a 700mb low you can see it pass well to the North of our area which is usually not a good sign for snow fall for our area. Honestly, every time I look at the models they look less and less impressive for snow accumulations from the actual storm itself. Dryslot type situation is now showing up for Sunday night as well. Then we move into the LES portion of the system which is anybody's guess at this point.

I expect you are correct it will be an advisory event due to that windchills and blowing snow. NWS does indicated Monday afternoon we should have the Huron connection still so I would expect maybe another shot of snow.

[lwg8tr0514]

To my semi-trained weenie eyes, this thing looks like a monster at 500MB and 850MB......but somewhat unorganized at the surface. Part of me wonders if there is a more consolidated secondary storm that is in the cards. Otherwise I see it as more an advisory type event but we'll see

Nam at 36hr, the warm air advection was a little overblown in the models earlier this week. Most of the precip looks like to be the frozen type as the low skirts through, so 1-3" higher in some of the stronger bands and then through Tuesday Evening with synoptic snow showers and LES another 1-3". I think we end up on higher end of that scale, the low coming through Mn,Wis and Iowa looks pretty powerful. Oh and the EURO this week which Warmistas got orgasmic over, EPIC FAIL with the Lake cutter idea.

GFS at 36

[Pittsburgh Rants]

Trust me, you don't want to go nowhere near Erie during these events. I was stranded there for a week back in April of 05 in Cambridge Springs due to a blizzard, no fun.

[Burghblizz]

NWS seems to be picking up where it left off last year with excellent discussions. You can tell there is a general feeling of "we'll leave the watch up, but don't expect a warning"

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --SEVERAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER FOR SUNDAY. FIRST IS RESIDUAL MIXED

PRECIP CHANCES. WILL KEEP CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN FOR THE WV/MD

RIDGES INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHERE DEEPEST SNOW COVER/CHILLED SURFACE

AIR EXISTS...WITH AREAS ALONG I-80 MAINLY RAIN/SNOW...AND ALL

OTHER AREAS RAIN THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING SUNDAY. AS THE COLD

FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THINK

TIMING ON THIS WILL BE LATE MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO...EARLY

AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA...AND FOR THE WV/MD RIDGES BY LATE

AFTN. WITH SOME MIX IN THE TRANSITION...AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING

SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...THINK SNOW ACCUMS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN

WILL BE MINOR...WITH PERHAPS 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF PIT.

THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH COLDER AIR

WORKING IN AREA WIDE. HOWEVER...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THERE

IS LIKELY TO BE A SLOT OF LESS PRECIP BEFORE FLOW TURNS TO THE

NW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WILL USE MAINLY LIKELY POPS

IN SNOW SHOWERS...BUT ACCUMS COULD BE HELD DOWN A BIT. LAKE EFFECT

AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS FLOW TILTS TO THE

N/NW MONDAY AFTN ALLOWING FOR LAKE HURON TAP ON TOP OF LAKE ERIE

EFFECT...WITH CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT

SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FROM PIT NORTH AND EAST. IN

ADDITION...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-40

MPH...RESULTING IN BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...AND WIND CHILL READINGS

OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS MOST AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH -20 ACROSS

THE WV/MD RIDGES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WITH SOME REMAINING

UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PLACEMENT OF MAXIMUM BANDING OF SNOW...WILL

KEEP THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NOW.-- End Changed Discussion --

[Burghblizz]

Trust me, you don't want to go nowhere near Erie during these events. I was stranded there for a week back in April of 05 in Cambridge Springs due to a blizzard, no fun.

sounds like fun to me...

[north pgh]

sounds like fun to me...

Me too.

I said if you were a snow lover and had nowhere to go it would be great.

I would understand if you were traveling and got stranded.

:snowman:

[Paweatherguy1]

12z nam is colder and wetter. I would say about .3-.4 inches of frozen qpf with the actual system.