blizzardof09 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Is anybody trying to discuss the severe weather threats over the next 2-3 days? I was just gonna ask what the probabilities are and where the best storms may set up in our area etc....what do you think is gonna be the main threats Wednesday to Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Is anybody trying to discuss the severe weather threats over the next 2-3 days? there is a separate thread earthlight started. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/20403-severe-weather-threat-wednesday-62211/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Some of the ensemble and even operational signals for a big heat wave are very impressive in the last few days of June into early July. The rising NAO and tanking PNA suggest this could be a big one...made a whole lot worse by the incredibly hot & dry airmass bottled up over the plains for more than a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 2PM update KEWR Temperature 81.0 F (27.2 C) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjmJS Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Some of the ensemble and even operational signals for a big heat wave are very impressive in the last few days of June into early July. The rising NAO and tanking PNA suggest this could be a big one...made a whole lot worse by the incredibly hot & dry airmass bottled up over the plains for more than a month. the 500mb heights are scary...especially for that weekend. I guess the NAEFS might finally be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 It's impressive to see both models building a 594+dm ridge by around D10.The GFS brings it east faster but the Euro has been trending toward the GFS over the past few runs. 12 UTC Monday Euro run 12 UTC Tuesday Euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 ^Yeah, the Euro is getting there. Theres not much if any support for a big trough in the east at that time--if it's there it will be kicked out very rapidly. The ridge over the Central US is ready to explode northeast, and these are the right conditions for it to do so...as long as the models aren't completely wrong with their idea of the rising NAO and rapidly tanking PNA. Regardless of how one may choose to generalize the Day 7-10 forecasts..there are some highly impressive signals beaming right now for the second big heat release of the summer. A 594+dm ridge closed over the OH Valley in late June and early July will lead to some extremely hot conditions and the potential for a heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 It's all 2-3 days driving the warm anomaly though...we have not seen consistent heat this June at all. Most days have been comfortable with a smattering of quite crisp nights. so far this month at kewr: 2 days averaged normal 12 days above normal 6 days below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 so far this month at kewr: 2 days averaged normal 12 days above normal 6 days below normal thank you for this post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 so far this month at kewr: 2 days averaged normal 12 days above normal 6 days below normal Can you provide the breakdown for any of the three NYC stations and the departures on each date? We can technically have a month where 30 out of 30 days were above normal but they were all +1 so it was basically meaningless. I'm curious as to how far from normal each date in each category was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Can you provide the breakdown for any of the three NYC stations and the departures on each date? We can technically have a month where 30 out of 30 days were above normal but they were all +1 so it was basically meaningless. I'm curious as to how far from normal each date in each category was. http://www.weather.g...dex.php?wfo=okx preliminary monthly climate data the seabreeze made a big difference this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Some of the ensemble and even operational signals for a big heat wave are very impressive in the last few days of June into early July. The rising NAO and tanking PNA suggest this could be a big one...made a whole lot worse by the incredibly hot & dry airmass bottled up over the plains for more than a month. Excellent analysis! Looking forward to the heat/humid conditions... although there is some disagreement, I know DT on facebook says no serious heat into the east at all today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 :sun: :stun: Where I can find a link to that? jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 :sun: :stun: Where I can find a link to that? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/MRF_18z/mrfloop2.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 jesus Weenies roasting to 105 on 4th of July??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Weenies roasting to 105 on 4th of July??? This is exactly when you want the big heat, as early to mid July has historically been the best time for 100+ temps! This is like what February is for big snow storms! Bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 This is exactly when you want the big heat, as early to mid July has historically been the best time for 100+ temps! This is like what February is for big snow storms! Bring it on! Hopefully not 100+ again like last year. Let that happen ever few years. Lets see more like 90-95 range with dewpoints in the 60's than a bit higher to help bring thunderstorm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 Hopefully not 100+ again like last year. Let that happen ever few years. Lets see more like 90-95 range with dewpoints in the 60's than a bit higher to help bring thunderstorm chances. I hope it's 105 degrees with not a single wispy cirrus cloud in the sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I hope it's 105 degrees with not a single wispy cirrus cloud in the sky Hey maybe with no clouds outside Earthlight will be by his pool all week sunbur..........I mean sunbathing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I hope it's 105 degrees with not a single wispy cirrus cloud in the sky I'd rather have that than that horrid day a couple weeks ago with temps in the upper 90s and dews around 70. IF I had to choose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Yay for 10 day progs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 It looks like the latest guidance may want to build the ridge near the drought regions first before eventually sending the heat east. The 6 UTC GFS made a move in the Euro's direction from its 0 UTC. 0 UTC 6 UTC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 It looks like the latest guidance may want to build the ridge near the drought regions first before eventually sending the heat east. The 6 UTC GFS made a move in the Euro's direction from its 0 UTC. 0 UTC 6 UTC So does it look likely we get some hot weather for 4th of july? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Big heat ridge in the Plains and Midwest...does it get this far by the 4th?..many of the major heatwaves have started this way..still some conflicting signals by july 4th..Euro looks to be on board http://weatherisland.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 LOL, Heat Ridge pretty much non-existent on the GFS today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 LOL, Heat Ridge pretty much non-existent on the GFS today. I was going to post the 252+ hour 12z GFS from today, but thought better. Laughable differences with yesterday's 110 degree heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I was going to post the 252+ hour 12z GFS from today, but thought better. Laughable differences with yesterday's 110 degree heat. Its actually got a trough over us, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 LOL, Heat Ridge pretty much non-existent on the GFS today. Latest Euro = no heat through the entire run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Latest Euro = no heat through the entire run really? i gotta check that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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