yoda Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 That from Wes, yoda? Nice if it is. When he gets excited, its time to dust off the bus. I wonder if we have to start worrying about temp issues tho. Yes. Its in the pinned thread, last post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Hope everyone remembers http://www.twisterdata.com/ Faster than NCEP---3 hour increments and point and click soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Hope everyone remembers http://www.twisterdata.com/ Faster than NCEP---3 hour increments and point and click soundings. Appreciate the link. Bookmarked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I don't like the track since the 850 low looks to go right over Northern VA on this run but someone could see 2 to 4 inches if this would happen like the NAM shows. It'd move ESE from the 84 hr postion thanks to the confluence to the North. We'd be OK if it played out as advertized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Little jet streak at 84 hours--- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I don't like the track since the 850 low looks to go right over Northern VA on this run but someone could see 2 to 4 inches if this would happen like the NAM shows. Actually, I think the low would be forced southeast as it comes over the mountains, That's a pretty standard thing that happens to a system crossing the mountains. there is confluence to the north and the upper level winds indicate that the 500 vort is still digging. Of course, there is no way to know whether the mdoel is correct or not as the shortwave still has not entered the conus so I'd expect the models to continue to waffle back and forth concerning the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 very interesting, by the nam were getting snow by sunday, question is how much?? correct??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Actually, I think the low would be forced southeast as it comes over the mountains, That's a pretty standard thing that happens to a system crossing the mountains. there is confluence to the north and the upper level winds indicate that the 500 vort is still digging. Of course, there is no way to know whether the mdoel is correct or not as the shortwave still has not entered the conus so I'd expect the models to continue to waffle back and forth concerning the storm. It's following the euro, but a little more aggressive with the s/w in question. Good point about the s/w continuing to dig. There's some nice inflow on the NAM, down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 It's following the euro, but a little more aggressive with the s/w in question. Good point about the s/w continuing to dig. There's some nice inflow on the NAM, down that way. Could you or Wes explain what you mean by that? I am not sure I follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Could you or Wes explain what you mean by that? I am not sure I follow It looked like a nice LLJ was getting established with ese winds from 950-850. In other words..good Atlantic inflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 It's following the euro, but a little more aggressive with the s/w in question. Good point about the s/w continuing to dig. There's some nice inflow on the NAM, down that way. Right now< I stil go with the euro solution as I mentioned in another thread, it's a 84 hr nam with the shortwave that produces the storm still in the pacific. The sref members show solutions from ones like the NAM to some like the gfs and other permutations in between the two extreme camps. The best bet is just to introduce the chance of light snow in the extended and then drift towards whichever of the solutions the models eventually converge upon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 your all saying the nam is predicting snow for sunday, correct, ??? accumulationg?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Right now< I stil go with the euro solution as I mentioned in another thread, it's a 84 hr nam with the shortwave that produces the storm still in the pacific. The sref members show solutions from ones like the NAM to some like the gfs and other permutations in between the two extreme camps. The best bet is just to introduce the chance of light snow in the extended and then drift towards whichever of the solutions the models eventually converge upon. Well it sure will be interesting to see what the 12z runs do. Good luck down that way. 12/5 seems to be the magic date for whatever reason. Somebody needs to play the lottery that day...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 your all saying the nam is predicting snow for sunday, correct, ??? accumulationg?? The POTENTIAL is there yes. But its WAY too early to tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Are we going to put the 12z GFS in here as well? Its out to 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 The POTENTIAL is there yes. But its WAY too early to tell thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 im still confused. are we talking about the 84 hr nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Yes im still confused. are we talking about the 84 hr nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I would argue the ridge in the Western Plains is a bit more pronounced on the 12z GFS then it was on the 12z NAM at 42 hrs on the h5 correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 im still confused. are we talking about the 84 hr nam? Did you mean why are we talking about the 84 hr NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 im still confused. are we talking about the 84 hr nam? Ji is talking about the 90h so only some of us are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 The Nam is the furtherst north and also the warmest with the weekend system. Also, it has a warm nose right up the western apps to Ohio ahead of the clipper. Typically with a LP in that location that is the case but, not always with a clipper type one. Yes, most of the snow generally falls north of it as with other Lp's but can also produce heavy bands to the south and east of the track. Hopefully, that will be the case with this if the Nams track were to be realized for our sake back this way, or we will be looking at just back side and upslope snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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