weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Reports of numerous damage across parts of Tompkins/Chemung Counties in NY...more tornado warnings flying in NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 I would suspect much of SNE ends up with some type of a watch over the next few hours. There's going to be some wild wx here today regardless of what the models show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 249 CONTINUES. A NEARLY SOLID QLCS WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEWD AT 40 TO 50 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NY AND NERN PA...AND MOVE INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND ALBANY AREA DURING THE NEXT HALF HOUR TO HOUR. MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRECEDING THE QLCS WILL ALLOW IT TO BE MAINTAINED AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHEAST...GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 60 KT. AS SUCH...THE WW MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EWD TO THE NEW YORK BORDER. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DMGG WINDS...GIVEN SSWLY WINDS OF 40-50 KT AROUND 1 KM AGL PER ALBANY VWP. HOWEVER...WITH 0-1-KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES DERIVED FROM THE VWP OF 313 M2/S2 SUGGESTING STRONG LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...THE THREAT FOR ONE OR TWO TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED MESOVORTEX WILL BE PRESENT. AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS FARTHER EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...IT WILL ENCOUNTER GROWING CINH AMIDST THE MORE STABLE MARINE LAYER...TEMPERING THE OVERALL SVR THREAT. MEANWHILE... SCATTERED CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH OF THE QLCS ACROSS WW249 WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEWD...AS WELL...POSING A THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES COULD MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL TO SOME DEGREE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 You know I'm really wondering about this "stable air" Look at what occurred across C NY overnight and they hardly had ANY instability. Perhaps storms do become a bit more elevated than sfc-based but were just going to have to see. Again, ML lapse rates continue to be pretty steep. Next several hours going to be interesting, especially extreme W CT/MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Kind of bummed to see that big hole opening up south of Albany just in time for the arrival in MA. Maybe it will fill in with something of note, but at this point...... 60.6/60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 If we could break out into some sun for just a little bit it could really change things, despite the southerly flow I think we would destabilize a decent amount, except for right along the coastline obviously but with those steep ML lapse rates any sfc heating would not only make sfc temps jump (warm low-level airmass) but we would destabilize fairly rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 If we could break out into some sun for just a little bit it could really change things, despite the southerly flow I think we would destabilize a decent amount, except for right along the coastline obviously but with those steep ML lapse rates any sfc heating would not only make sfc temps jump (warm low-level airmass) but we would destabilize fairly rapidly. Doubt there's any time for sun/heating happening here. Clouds/fog with the advancing precip closing in. I don't know what the impact of that dry area is going to be. 60.7/60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Doubt there's any time for sun/heating happening here. Clouds/fog with the advancing precip closing in. I don't know what the impact of that dry area is going to be. 60.7/60 I wasn't saying it was going to happen but just stating even if we could have gotten a few hours of some sun that would have made a significant different in what we could expect here, probably be a much higher threat for severe weather across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 I wasn't saying it was going to happen but just stating even if we could have gotten a few hours of some sun that would have made a significant different in what we could expect here, probably be a much higher threat for severe weather across the region. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Forecast soundings do show a decent amount of dry air just above 900mb so it is somewhat feasible some locations may see some breaks of sun, especially the further from the coast you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Dont think anything severe is going to happen east of the ny border in ct, and especially at the shoreline with the marine layer in place. Maybe some heavy rain for a bit, and a rumble of thunder, but nothing more. The severe threat may drastically drop off east of the NY/CT border, especially across the shoreline. However, these storms may end up becoming more elevated rather than sfc-based, the reason for the drop off in severe wx potential. Winds aloft are still very strong though so it's not out of the question we see strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Sun is peaking through here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Wow 12z OKX sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 12z ALY sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 12z soundings were quite unstable. Need to mix out that marine layer and maybe we can get western CT and western MA in the game. Some sunshine would go a long way today. BDL is already 66/62 which is pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 12z soundings were quite unstable. Need to mix out that marine layer and maybe we can get western CT and western MA in the game. Some sunshine would go a long way today. BDL is already 66/62 which is pretty good. I was quite shocked at how unstable they were, having these steep ML lapse rates around have really helped in that department. Luckily this is only a low-level cloud deck were dealing with. If this were another month or early June I'd feel a bit better about breaking up this cloud deck. We'll see though, pretty dry above this layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 I was quite shocked at how unstable they were, having these steep ML lapse rates around have really helped in that department. Luckily this is only a low-level cloud deck were dealing with. If this were another month or early June I'd feel a bit better about breaking up this cloud deck. We'll see though, pretty dry above this layer. It's surprisingly bright outside. We'll see what happens. If we can get to like 75/65 I'll be a bit more excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 It's surprisingly bright outside. We'll see what happens. If we can get to like 75/65 I'll be a bit more excited What would 75/65 give us for instability numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Any discrete cells definitely need to be watched as they could really take off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Cloud deck really trying to think off to our south and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Wiz is expecting several EF4's in Ct today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Wiz is expecting several EF4's in Ct today No, more like one or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 It's surprisingly bright outside. We'll see what happens. If we can get to like 75/65 I'll be a bit more excited "Bright" is the last word I'd use to describe up here. Pretty dank--distant fog ehavy overcast. 61.2/61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 No, more like one or two. All it takes is one to wreck your day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 All it takes is one to wreck your day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Wiz is expecting several EF4's in Ct today lol no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for Litchfield and Fairfield Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for Litchfield and Fairfield Counties. omg!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 omg!!!!!!!!!!! Was surprised, there wasn't even an MCD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 omg!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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