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December 1-3 lake effect snow event

lakeeffectkid383

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

sweet :) in the 9-15 inch zone :) I'm hoping your right. Last event was a dud with only 4 inches.

As you either already know, or will learn, maps like these are rarely completely accurate (meaning it is just about impossible to nail the range for EVERYONE affected, due to micro scale aspects). These will, for the foreseeable future, provide a blend of "best estimates of totals" and "best guesses at locations of those estimations". In the end, you might get 16" while someone in the same "range" gets only 7"....so it averages out generally speaking.

I think you'll do well.

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
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Hows it looking for the Syracuse area Friday/Saturday? Few inches?

I think so....but I'm not sold yet on the degree to which the models are making the mean winds veer. Northern suburbs for sure....but then again, the cap lowers a decent amount, and according to BUFKIT, our omega and snowgrowth region seperate some and become less favorable....ie smaller dendrites... 4+ days out...so details not set yet.

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

Thanks for all your input and analysis. I always look forward to seeing your posts. I will keep you posted on amounts from Redfield.

Any word from Ty? I am surprised he hasn't made his way over to the new board yet.

I tried searching for Ty's phone number (Had it on an old cell when we chased together a few years back.....but to no avail :( I think he missed the cut wrt Eastern -> American.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

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I tried searching for Ty's phone number (Had it on an old cell when we chased together a few years back.....but to no avail :( I think he missed the cut wrt Eastern -> American.

I just found him on facebook...I was about to say...it might be worth contacting the SUNY Oswego Alumni office...he went to school with me for a few years.

I'll friend him and send him a message.

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Tornado Girl

Tornado Girl

Posted
Posted

You've probably made out better than me.

I remember coming home from Florida on 1/4/10 and got to use my snowblower for the first time in the season.

Lewis County has gotten into the act now too:

.. Lake effect snow watch in effect from Wednesday evening

through Thursday evening...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a lake effect

snow watch... which is in effect from Wednesday evening through

Thursday evening.

* Locations: Jefferson and Lewis counties. The heaviest snow is

expected in central and southern Jefferson County and northern

Lewis County.

* Timing: lake effect snow is expected to develop Wednesday

evening and continue through Thursday evening.

* Snow accumulations: may exceed one foot where the lake effect

snow persists the longest.

* Impacts: heavy lake effect snow may produce difficult travel

conditions with snow covered roads and poor visibility.

* Forecaster confidence: there remains some uncertainty as to the

exact placement of lake effect snow. A small change in wind

direction may Carry Lake effect snow farther north into

northern Jefferson County or farther south across the Tug Hill

plateau.

Yep, BUF is thinking 10-14 inches for the Tug, I think there could be a few places with a little more than that...I guess we will see :snowman:

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swva

swva

Posted
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LEK, I was catching up on the models and looks like the initial band is going to be coming in on a 260-270 flow off Ontario. That would be further south than originally thought right? Do you think this still sets up north of Redfield to start? Hoping it gives me until noon tomorrow to get there.

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

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Jesus I think my heart just stopped. NWS forecast for West Seneca/OP border =]]]

This Afternoon: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. West wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.

Tonight: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 28. West wind around 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible.

Thursday: Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 33. West wind between 13 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Thats a total of 19- 29 inches :thumbsup::snowman:

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CNYWeather

CNYWeather

Posted
Posted

Jesus I think my heart just stopped. NWS forecast for West Seneca/OP border =]]]

This Afternoon: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. West wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.

Tonight: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 28. West wind around 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible.

Thursday: Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 33. West wind between 13 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Thats a total of 19- 29 inches :thumbsup::snowman:

CONGRATS!! drunk.gif

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