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Possible Severe Weather 4/11/11


jrips27

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Tornado watches extended eastward all the way to the Western Carolinas.

The National Weather Service has issued Tornado Watch 132 in

effect until 3 am EDT Tuesday for the following areas

In Georgia this watch includes 6 counties

In northeast Georgia

Elbert Franklin Habersham

Hart Rabun Stephens

In North Carolina this watch includes 12 counties

In western North Carolina

Avery Buncombe Graham

Haywood Henderson Jackson

Macon Madison Mitchell

Swain Transylvania Yancey

In South Carolina this watch includes 8 counties

In upstate South Carolina

Abbeville Anderson Greenville

Greenwood Laurens Oconee

Pickens Spartanburg

This includes the cities of... Abbeville... Anderson... Asheville...

Bakersville... Brevard... Bryson City... Burnsville... Carnesville...

Cherokee... Clarkesville... Clayton... Cullowhee... Easley...

Elberton... Franklin... Greenville... Greenwood... Hartwell...

Hendersonville... Laurens... Marshall... Newland... Robbinsville...

Spartanburg... Sylva... Toccoa... Walhalla and Waynesville.

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ww0132_radar_big.gif

DISCUSSION...TN/AL/SE MS QLCS HAS STRENGTHENED IN THE PAST 2 HRS AND

SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY ENEWD WHILE EMBEDDED STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY

NNE ALONG IT. SUB-SYNOPTIC SFC LOW NOW NEAR HUN MAY IN PART REFLECT

ARRIVAL OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR JET

STREAK NOW ENTERING THE LWR MS VLY. AS THE JET STREAK CONTINUES

EWD...THE SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE NE INTO ERN TN...EXTENDING THREAT FOR

ADDITIONAL LEWP DEVELOPMENT NEWD INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THAT

STATE AND N GA. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT/MID LVL COOLING MAY

REMAIN WEAKER FARTHER S OVER SRN AL...AVAILABILITY OF RICHER

MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF EXISTING SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS SUGGEST EWD

SPREAD OF SVR THREAT FROM SE MS INTO AL. THE MAIN SVR THREATS

SHOULD BE DMGG WINDS/ISOLD TORNADOES FROM SMALL SCALE BOWING

SEGMENTS/LEWPS.

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Atlanta...You're up next from what I'm seeing as the squall line begins its departure from central AL. Looks to be sustaining itself well and should affect parts of Georgia in the next hour or two, give or take several minutes. You can see a northeastward movement if you're watching radar so the storms from AL and eventually GA should be able to get underneath the Apps and affect the Carolinas later tonight.

15d6rl5.jpg

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Atlanta...You're up next from what I'm seeing as the squall line begins its departure from central AL. Looks to be sustaining itself well and should affect parts of Georgia in the next hour or two, give or take several minutes. You can see a northeastward movement if you're watching radar so the storms from AL and eventually GA should be able to get underneath the Apps and affect the Carolinas later tonight.

I'm not expecting much...if anything...from these storms later on tonight for mby. I see the famous "carolina split" in my future :lol: Good luck everyone to my west! :hug:

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I'm not expecting much...if anything...from these storms later on tonight for mby. I see the famous "carolina split" in my future :lol: Good luck everyone to my west! :hug:

Considering that these past storms have failed to split, so I wouldn't bet the farm on it. Just sayin.

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I've been out working today, so just now catching up. Another tornado watch just to my west, the line so far looks to be holding together. The models are still closing this off a little quicker than thought, so the line will begin to slow some, and probably crawl across the Carolinas as it orients more north to south, wrapping into KY. Tomorrow after will be intersting in eastern KY, TN down to N GA and western NC probably, with 546 thkns and mid level moisture, instability, and some hailers I'd think.

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0758 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AL/GA AND THE SOUTHERN

APPALACHIANS VICINITY...

...GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST

STATES...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID-SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE

TO STEADILY PROGRESS EASTWARD/AMPLIFY TO A DEGREE TOWARD THE TN

VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A COLD

FRONT...AN ONGOING SQUALL LINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TN AND AL

HAS SHOWN INCREASED ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY OVER THE PAST FEW

HOURS...PERHAPS AIDED BY A PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET ACROSS FAR

NORTHERN AL. AS LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND SPEEDS YET STRENGTHEN

TONIGHT...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL REMAIN A CONCERN

THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LINE STEADILY PROGRESSES EASTWARD TOWARD

GA AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS VICINITY...WITH A SEVERE THREAT

POSSIBLE AS FAR N/NE AS EASTERN KY/SOUTHERN WV/WESTERN VA AHEAD OF A

THE EAST-NORTHEAST ADVANCING SURFACE LOW. WHILE SOME SEVERE THREAT

MAY CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT...A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS PROBABLE BY

LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

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mcd0419.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0419

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0823 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN TN...WRN NC...ERN AL...WRN GA AND

UPSTATE SC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 131...132...

VALID 120123Z - 120300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 131...132...CONTINUES.

STABILIZING TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING ARE

SUGGESTIVE THAT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING SQUALL LINE

IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...MOISTENING ON SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD

OF THE LINE WILL PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT

DESTABILIZATION...WHEN COUPLED WITH STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD

VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TURNING EAST

OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TO MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTION THROUGH

AT LEAST THE BALANCE OF THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN

FLOW FIELD IN WHICH THE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED... INCLUDING 40-50 KT

AROUND 850 MB. SO THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE

LIKELY TO CONTINUE...AS CONVECTION ENHANCES THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF

THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH

THE ATLANTA METROPOLITAN AREA DURING THE 03-04Z TIME FRAME...AND MAY

EXTEND FROM NEAR GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC THROUGH ATHENS

GA...SOUTHWARD TOWARD DOTHAN AL...BY 04-05Z.

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Here we go IMBY...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

1001 PM EDT MON APR 11 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

WESTERN COBB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA

WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA

CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA

HARALSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA

PAULDING COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA

SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA

* UNTIL 1045 PM EDT

* AT 959 PM EDT/859 PM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR

INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A

LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROCKMART TO 12 MILES WEST

OF TALLAPOOSA TO 28 MILES WEST OF BOWDON...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

BUCHANAN...BRASWELL...WACO...BREMEN...ROOPVILLE...MOUNT ZION...

CARROLLTON...TEMPLE...DALLAS...ACWORTH...DOUGLASVILLE...VILLA

RICA...POWDER SPRINGS...KENNESAW AND HIRAM.

Line is broken to my west...:thumbsdown: Hoping it'll move NE.

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Had some crazy lightning and some gusts to about 45 mph. Was pretty intense for about 20 seconds there. Anyone else care to post their obs from the W ATL area? I feel like I'm talking to myself in here! :lol:

LOL! Just so long as you're not talking back....

Our weather is just coming in. I'm expecting it to be similar to the last event...intense lightning and some wind. There's a cell heading for Cumming right now.

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Had some crazy lightning and some gusts to about 45 mph. Was pretty intense for about 20 seconds there. Anyone else care to post their obs from the W ATL area? I feel like I'm talking to myself in here! :lol:

Whole buncha nothing here in Acworth. Winds weren't heavy at all and the rain was more of the showery nature.

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What happened here? :unsure::lol:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

1012 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

ALC011-081-087-113-120345-

/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0148.000000T0000Z-110412T0345Z/

BULLOCK AL-RUSSELL AL-MACON AL-LEE AL-

1012 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN LEE...MACON...RUSSELL AND NORTHERN BULLOCK COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

AT 1008 PM CDT...A ***YOU FORGOT TO SELECT A DEFAULT OPTION*** DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NOTASULGA TO FRANKLIN FIELD...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... AUBURN...HURTSBORO...SMITHS...PHENIX CITY...DAVISVILLE... GUERRYTON...BEAUREGARD...SOCIETY HILL...GRIFFEN MILL AND UCHEE.

THIS INCLUDES... INTERSTATE 85 EXIT NUMBERS 22 THROUGH 58...

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Whole buncha nothing here in Acworth. Winds weren't heavy at all and the rain was more of the showery nature.

That's the thing about these squall lines. You get a cell to come right at you, and then it weakens and you are left with nothing.... That happened last week but I got hit fairly hard tonight!

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Looks to me that the line is weakening a bit. This alway seems to happen as the line crosses into metro Atlanta. So bizarre. I wonder if it will strengthen as it moves out of Atlanta and towards the Carolina's, as our past storms seemed to follow the same pattern. But I don't have much hope for this line.

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What happened here? :unsure::lol:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 1012 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011 ALC011-081-087-113-120345- /O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0148.000000T0000Z-110412T0345Z/ BULLOCK AL-RUSSELL AL-MACON AL-LEE AL- 1012 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN LEE...MACON...RUSSELL AND NORTHERN BULLOCK COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT... AT 1008 PM CDT...A ***YOU FORGOT TO SELECT A DEFAULT OPTION*** DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NOTASULGA TO FRANKLIN FIELD...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... AUBURN...HURTSBORO...SMITHS...PHENIX CITY...DAVISVILLE... GUERRYTON...BEAUREGARD...SOCIETY HILL...GRIFFEN MILL AND UCHEE. THIS INCLUDES... INTERSTATE 85 EXIT NUMBERS 22 THROUGH 58...

:lol: if that was FFC the hatin would have been in full force on here. :pimp:

Yeah they are starting to weaken after they get to Atlanta. Poor Lookout always gets screwed! :hug:

Edited to add: Stay safe over there SnowGator!

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Birmingham had it happen again in their updated SWS as of 10:37 PM CDT :lol:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

1037 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

ALC011-081-087-113-120345-

/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0148.000000T0000Z-110412T0345Z/

BULLOCK AL-RUSSELL AL-MACON AL-LEE AL-

1037 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN LEE...EASTERN MACON...RUSSELL AND NORTHEASTERN BULLOCK COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

AT 1033 PM CDT...A ***YOU FORGOT TO SELECT A DEFAULT OPTION*** DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF BEANS MILL TO 7 MILES WEST OF GUERRYTON...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

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Well I've lost complete interest in this cold front. There just isn't enough supportive dynamics to keep the bowing segments in place, hence the weakening and becoming scattered regular thunderstorms or just heavy showers. Places further south, say parts of central and southern SC would be the better areas to be in for storminess (though they too could miss out) but for the most part across western and central NC it doesn't look all that good. Eastern NC/SC will have to keep an eye on things tomorrow afternoon since the front will still be around plus interaction from an upper level low will help fire off some storms. Georgia always seems to be the "kill zone" in these kind of situations with low instability being present further east (as noticed by tonight's radar trends). I did mention earlier about watching how the cold front behaves would determine what happens east of the Apps so I can't say I'm disappointed, especially since I had enough action on Saturday from all the severe storms that kept dumping hail, torrential rain, and constant tornado threats. That event completely wore me out mentally.

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