Srain Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_ep922011_ep022011.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201106191257 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Sweet. A possible RECON mission... WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0945 AM EDT SUN 19 JUNE 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z JUNE 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-019 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX NEAR 18.4N 104.1W AT 21/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS. EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Sweet. A possible RECON mission... WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0945 AM EDT SUN 19 JUNE 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z JUNE 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-019 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX NEAR 18.4N 104.1W AT 21/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS. EC Recon is my favorite part of the hurricane season. I don't know how many people know of this site (perhaps a lot), but http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ is an awesome live recon decoder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Watches/Warnings hoisted for the Mexican Coast... BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 99.9W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 Wow-- they practically bring it onshore as a hurricane in 48 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Wow-- they practically bring it onshore as a hurricane in 48 hr. Seems aggressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 Seems aggressive Track, intensity, or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Track, intensity, or both? Both. GFDL and HWRF are biasing TVCN too far north (which is essentially what NHC used for their track). While global models are poor for absolute intensity estimates, they do a good job with trends and none of the globals are showing much deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 Both. GFDL and HWRF are biasing TVCN too far north (which is essentially what NHC used for their track). While global models are poor for absolute intensity estimates, they do a good job with trends and none of the globals are showing much deepening. Oh. Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Looks like a 1959 redux. Are you back from Praha Josh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I don't get why they marry themselves to the TVCN like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 Looks like a 1959 redux. Are you back from Praha Josh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 At least the first part of the forecasted track is eerily similar to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Very convectively active, with some banding features on microwave, although it almost seems like it might be connected to another close proximity disturbance at 16N 96W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Beatriz now... BULLETINTROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011 1100 AM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 100.6W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SW OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.67 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I like the look of this one. Should be fun to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 It does have a healthy look to it. I'm very curious to see what they say in the 2 pm PDT package-- like, do they up the intensity forecast, and do they still bring it so close to the coast? This should be more of a page-turner than that Adrian fish thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Coming together nicely now. Very good outflow in all quads, meaning good environment around this system. I think chances of this becoming a hurricane by 24-36 hours are good and we could have a high end cat1. Should be a close call, but I agree with the nhc with keeping it just off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 Beatriz is moving a little faster now, and the 2 pm PDT package brings a 65-kt cyclone very close to the Mexican coast within 36 hr-- therefore, a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011 500 PM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011 ...RAIN BANDS AFFECTING THE COAST OF MEXICO...BEATRIZ LIKELY TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 101.7W ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 eyewall almost closed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 eyewall almost closed I see a banding eye developing in that pic, but it doesn't look like its almost closed the eye/become a hurricane in that image. IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I see a banding eye developing in that pic, but it doesn't look like its almost closed the eye/become a hurricane in that image. IMHO. Agreed. Looks to be a ways away from true eyeball closure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 EP, 02, 2011062000, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1017W, 40, 1001, TS 45 mph at 11 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 latest microwave is still meh... don't see any signs of an inner core yet. Looks pretty healthy on Inferred though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 The cyclone has strengthened to 45 kt. The NHC brings it up to 70 kt in the 36-48-hr range, as the center reaches its point of closes approach to the coast. Interestingly, the GFS now has it curving toward the coast in a very October-ish track: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Looking good tonight. The 2 am PDT package should be interesting: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Yep, it's really pulling together. Latest intensity is up to 997 mb/50 kt. It'll become a 'cane today. The new (2 am PDT) forecast is more bullish, bringing winds up to a healthy 80 kt during the 36-48-hr period, as the center passes within ~20 mi of the coast near Manzanillo. This part of the Discussion is interestin': THE INNER CORE CONVECTION AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERNS HAVE IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. WITH AN ALREADY EXPANSIVE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW PATTERN PRESENT...AND THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY 24 HOURS...THERE APPEARS TO BE NO PHYSICAL REASONS WHY BEATRIZ SHOULD NOT CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...AND POSSIBLY EVEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY DURING THAT TIME. One interesting detail: the motion has taken a more N component. The 8 pm PDT package indicated 305-- now it's 315. This increases the threat to the coast. Even now, a track just a hair N of the forecast will bring the core ashore. The Discussion notes the two camps with the models-- one that keeps it offshore (NOGAPS and UKMET) and the other that brings it onshore (ECMWF, GFS, GFDL, HWRF). The GFS has changed its tune from earlier. Talk about a close shave: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 By the way, this SW "elbow" of the MX coast around Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta-- comprising the states of Colima and Jalisco-- hasn't had a lot of hurricane action over the last couple of decades. The last hurricane to directly hit this region was Hernan 1996, a Cat 1 which came ashore near the Jalisco/Colima border with an intensity of 987 mb/65 kt. The early 1990s saw a small burst of activity for this region, with two Cat 2s coming ashore in the general vicinity of Manzanillo: Winifred 1992 (975 mb/85 kt) in Colima and Calvin 1993 (973 mb/85 kt) in Jalisco. You have to go back to ancient history for the last major in this region: the Great Mexico Hurricane of 1959, a presumed Cat 5 that crossed the Jalisco coast a little WNW of Manzanillo with estimated winds of 140 kt. (The Cat-5 rating appears to be based on a single, vague piece of data of questionable origins, and I'm frankly skeptical. Unfortunately, no official reanalysis of this basin is currently being conducted.) Kenna 2002-- a classic, late-October major-- was a close call, passing just N of Puerto Vallarta and making landfall in Nayarit as a Cat 4 (950 mb/120 kt). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.