Srain Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Looks a tiny bit better when looped, but if the invest designtion didn't give lat and long I'd have a hard time finding it. EP, 92, 2011061612, , BEST, 0, 115N, 920W, 20, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 EP, 92, 2011061612, , BEST, 0, 115N, 920W, 20, Tht is how I found it, the 11.5 and 92.0ºW... Just saying, if you didn't know it was there, you wouldn't know it was there. I actually can read simple English, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 I actually can read simple English, really. Perhaps, I can't today, Ed. Sorry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2011 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 16, 2011 Author Share Posted June 16, 2011 Cool. I notice the new Mandarin is smaller-- perhaps suggesting some consolidation (or wishful thinking on my part). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 18Z track and intensity are out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Likes the hwrf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 What the hell did the models ingest last night? Nothing looks particularly impressive for 92E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 17, 2011 Author Share Posted June 17, 2011 What the hell did the models ingest last night? Nothing looks particularly impressive for 92E. Oh. Hey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Not super impressed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Not super impressed... This looks a lot better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Despite what ever the models drank last night, Lixion seems to think conditions are conducive for slow development... TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM PDT FRI JUN 17 2011 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER AVILA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 17, 2011 Author Share Posted June 17, 2011 I think it actually looks a tad better this morning-- there's some consolidation and a bit of turning. Motion is WNW, I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 I think it actually looks a tad better this morning-- there's some consolidation and a bit of turning. Motion is WNW, I see. I agree with you Josh as the low levels are slowly coming together, but convection needs to become better organized. Give it another 24-30 hours of this slow organization, then we could see a depression or tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Good ole Lixion raises development chances to 50%... TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 17 2011 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ARE CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE ...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TOMORROW. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER AVILA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Would you looky here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Oh, and we have a cherry... TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM PDT FRI JUN 17 2011 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BERG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Looks like a sloppy storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Microwave imagery suggests things are slowly coming together for 92E. The southern semi circle still lacks deep convection, but the NHC states a depression may form in the next 24 hours or so. It still appears to be a sloppy system, but that may enhance rain chances across the Western Gulf region as we move ahead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 18, 2011 Author Share Posted June 18, 2011 Microwave imagery suggests things are slowly coming together for 92E. Agreed-- and I'm getting the same vibe from the latest IR. It's definitely looking a bit better-- getting that cyclonic look to it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 TD 2E tomorrow...? TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM PDT SAT JUN 18 2011 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. SATELLITE DATA FROM EARLIER TODAY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS A LITTLE BIT MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...AND ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BERG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 18, 2011 Author Share Posted June 18, 2011 Cool. Interesting that they're suggesting coastal residents keep an eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 18Z...intensity has increased... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 And, as usual, the same two models are the poleward outliers-- just like with the last cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Perhaps the hurricane models had an idea after all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 The central plains trough is gonna weaken the Nern MX ridge. This translates into weaker steering currents and a more poleward motion. But as the trough swings east the ridge will rebuild again, probably just in time to avert a head on collision with land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 Special NHC statement-- looks like it's going to pop real soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Special NHC statement-- looks like it's going to pop real soon. Quote worthy. ABPZ20 KNHC 190929TWOEP SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO... AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING. IF THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE SINCE IT COULD BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART -80º tops... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 CDO has developed and surface circulations looks depression worthy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.