Ed Lizard Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Good morning Adrian. Finally NRL has updated... I am guessing the eye starting to fill with low clouds isn't a positive sign. Edit to add Steve's pic, new page... Starting to encounter cooler water, but still above 26.5º and I thought annular canes were somewhat more resistant to cold water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Avila: THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE STILL CONSISTS OF A DISTINCT EYE AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY...THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED...YIELDING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS. WITH NO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ANTICIPATED...THE INTERACTION OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE STRONG SST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE THE MAIN CAUSE FOR ADRIAN TO WEAKEN AS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. WEAKENING COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS SUGGESTED BY SOME MODELS LIKE THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Isabel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 pretty sweet microwave...maybe a little bit of breaking down of the single band structure on the NE side with the presence of that second convective maxima? How cool. The cyclone is like 95% eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 I doubt it ever happens for you unless you buy a boat. I'm not sure we'll ever see a real landfalling annular. I'd imagine it's possible on some of the small islands in the middle of nowhere... no real land mass to disrupt the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 I'd imagine it's possible on some of the small islands in the middle of nowhere... no real land mass to disrupt the core. Where, though? I tried to think of some places, so I'll go back through my line of reasoning to see if/where disagreements lie. To start, a couple general assumptions about annulars: 1. Needs to be out of the deep tropics. You won't find them in 29C waters 2. Needs to also be below a certain latitude as well..different between the EPAC and the ATL, but still enough to rule out northerly locations 3. Generally moving W/WNW, equatorward of an uppper level ridge, ruling out places like Bermuda which rely upon recurvers. Now of course, there may be some exceptions...this storm is a little weird because it seems to have gone annular a little early compared to most of the other EPAC cases I have seen. So, given that, what options do we have? In the EPAC, Socorro is the only real option but the environment around it is generally more deep tropical than subtropical...except for years like this one where there is a nice cold pool. I suppose theoretically this is possible, just not very likely over the lifetime of an individual. In the Atlantic, the annular cases seem to traverse the Sargasso sea...not exactly a hotbed of islands. Maybe something could roll into the Bahamas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Where, though? I tried to think of some places, so I'll go back through my line of reasoning to see if/where disagreements lie. To start, a couple general assumptions about annulars: 1. Needs to be out of the deep tropics. You won't find them in 29C waters 2. Needs to also be below a certain latitude as well..different between the EPAC and the ATL, but still enough to rule out northerly locations 3. Generally moving W/WNW, equatorward of an uppper level ridge, ruling out places like Bermuda which rely upon recurvers. Now of course, there may be some exceptions...this storm is a little weird because it seems to have gone annular a little early compared to most of the other EPAC cases I have seen. So, given that, what options do we have? In the EPAC, Socorro is the only real option but the environment around it is generally more deep tropical than subtropical...except for years like this one where there is a nice cold pool. I suppose theoretically this is possible, just not very likely over the lifetime of an individual. In the Atlantic, the annular cases seem to traverse the Sargasso sea...not exactly a hotbed of islands. Maybe something could roll into the Bahamas? These are the exact two locations I was thinking in the western hemisphere, ya. Obviously neither is an ideal location, but annulars are rare enough that even an "ideal" location would more than likely not see one. I would think the Bahamas and Socorro could see a direct annular landfall, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 i think ginger might qualify. http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at19718.asp hard to find a decent satellite picture of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 i think ginger might qualify. http://www.wundergro...ane/at19718.asp hard to find a decent satellite picture of it. hi rainstorm. It has rainbands so it don't count. Look how small that eye is you need a big eye with most of the storm being eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 i think that was when it was heading ne away from land, not when it was headed back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 i think that was when it was heading ne away from land, not when it was headed back west. Nope, look at its position... well S of the landfall point. Edit: Or were you referring to when it may have had annular properties? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 One thing about B&W imagery for determining whether a hurricane is annular (although I don't think it applies to the Ginger pic), outflow channels will curve anticyclonically and may appear to be spiral bands on a black and white IR picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 i think that was when it was heading ne away from land, not when it was headed back west. I have no pics of that, but Isabel was close and maybe Kate 2003. http://www.atmos.ucl...isabel_dmsp.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 The cyclone is slowly weakening-- now down to 110 kt-- and that trend should continue. I found this part of the Discussion a little interestin': SOME OF THE MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS AND THE HURRICANE MODELS DRIVEN BY THE GFS...INDICATE A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DESPITE THE STRONG SHEAR AND HOSTILE THERMODYNAMICS. You can see that sharp turn in the model runs below. Note how the SHIPS really kills this thing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 Pretty crappy now-- doesn't even look like 110 kt to me: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 11, 2011 Author Share Posted June 11, 2011 It's really falling apart now-- looks dreadful on IR imagery. This seems atypical of annular 'canes, which are partly characterized by their stable structures and very slow demises-- even in hostile environments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 It's really falling apart now-- looks dreadful on IR imagery. This seems atypical of annular 'canes, which are partly characterized by their stable structures and very slow demises-- even in hostile environments. Hell if you just shown me a ir and I just woke up out of a week long sleep I'd say 50 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 11, 2011 Author Share Posted June 11, 2011 Hell if you just shown me a ir and I just woke up out of a week long sleep I'd say 50 knots. Seriously-- it looks that bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 looks like the superensemble and ECMWF were right...lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 http://www.atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin/latest.cgi?ir-e looks like 2 more lined up and ready to go. models showing anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 http://www.atmos.was...latest.cgi?ir-e looks like 2 more lined up and ready to go. models showing anything? Itcz convection...And the gfs isn't forecasting anything http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2011061106&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation cmc doesn't either http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2011061100&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation Ecmwf, nope. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2011061100&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 Decaying rather quickly from the look of the satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 11, 2011 Author Share Posted June 11, 2011 From the 2 am PDT Discussion. Really sad: ADRIAN APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING IMPLOSIVE FILLING. A RECENT TRMM OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL HAS BROKEN OPEN...WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE CYCLONE ALSO HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED SYSTEM IN INFRARED IMAGERY. THE RAPID DECAY MAKES THE INITIAL INTENSITY PROBLEMATIC. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 90 AND 77 KT RESPECTIVELY AT 0600 UTC. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF AN EYEWALL STRUCTURE SUGGESTS THESE ESTIMATES ARE TOO HIGH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 75 KT...AND THIS COULD BE QUITE GENEROUS. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 I've never heard the NHC use the term "implosive" before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 Itcz convection...And the gfs isn't forecasting anything http://moe.met.fsu.e...&hour=Animation cmc doesn't either http://moe.met.fsu.e...&hour=Animation Ecmwf, nope. http://moe.met.fsu.e...&hour=Animation The 12Z CMC is suggesting some development of both areas of disturbed weather...fwiw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 Soon to be a naked swirl... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 Decaying rather quickly from the look of the satellite. But it was annular it can't weaken. J/K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 45 kt and rapidly disintegrating, "as fast as it strengthened", as per the NHC's 2 pm PDT advisory. "The Lord giveth [a hawt annular 'cane] and the Lord taketh away." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 I'd imagine it's possible on some of the small islands in the middle of nowhere... no real land mass to disrupt the core. Well not a huge island but not a small one and a well known one at that-Okinawa has had documented near and actual passages of annular storms. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Well not a huge island but not a small one and a well known one at that-Okinawa has had documented near and actual passages of annular storms. Steve That's interesting, Steve. I had actually hypothesized to Josh in an email this week that the WPAC would be very difficult to have annular storms due to the warm SSTs. Do you know which annular storms were near Okinawa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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