wxmx Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 That's interesting, Steve. I had actually hypothesized to Josh in an email this week that the WPAC would be very difficult to have annular storms due to the warm SSTs. Do you know which annular storms near Okinawa? Typhoons Jelawat and Rusa I have seen referenced as annular. From the S hemi, Dora 2007 might have been a candidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 There were a number before those two (which also occurred before the term annular was coined). It would mean looking back through the ATCRs to find the cases but I know of a couple of instances where Okinawa found itself inside some VERY large eyes. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Typhoons Jelawat and Rusa I have seen referenced as annular. From the S hemi, Dora 2007 might have been a candidate. I distinctly remember Typhoon Jelawat back in 2000... fascinating storm in the West Pacific. It developed annular characteristics for 2-3 days and moved very slowly... but it remained at typhoon strength or greater thanks to very favorable upper level conditions allowing the annular characteristic to persist over the colder upwelled sea surface temperatures. Once it finally started moving again convection became colder and it retained its annual characteristics. This is what it looked like when it first slowed down. After around 1.5 days the convective structure resembled this. Note that the eyewall remained intact though. After passing over Okinawa, it regained deeper convection thanks to warmer SSTs and redeveloped the classical annular characteristics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 Wow, that Jelawat cyclone was crazy. Thanks, aslkahuna and Phil882, for that info. I looked at the best track data (on Jorge's site), and it slowly passed over Okinawa with a steady intensity of ~965 mb/85 kt (1-min). Judging by the enormous eye and very slow forward speed (~5 kt), they must have been in a lull for a solid day, I would think. Just bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 The 00Z GFS and Canadian as well as the Euro (albeit weak) develop Beatriz next weekend as the Kelvin wave moves across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 13, 2011 Author Share Posted June 13, 2011 Thanks, Steve, for so diligently watering this thread when I'm swamped with work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Thanks, Steve, for so diligently watering this thread when I'm swamped with work. My pleasure. Soon enough you'll be back in the USA and will be focused on all the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 The 12Z GFS is suggesting a future Beatiz may be well be a potent cyclone...edit to add the Euro is now onboard as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 looks like it has a chance to be at least a cat2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 looks like it has a chance to be at least a cat3. Very rare indeed to have two majors in June. Last June was the first time in a very long time that we had two in June. Improbable in a nina year too. I don't think impossible because anything is possible, but I wouldn't go that far as of yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Man, the models are really picking up on this weekend EPAC storm today. Makes sense, since they don't predict Kelvin waves all that well until they see the whites of their eyes (maybe something to consider for the BoC next week, too?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Man, the models are really picking up on this weekend EPAC storm today. Makes sense, since they don't predict Kelvin waves all that well until they see the whites of their eyes (maybe something to consider for the BoC next week, too?) Another 'close in' TC as well. Perhaps a Mexican threat this go around? Great agreement even re:ensembles. One can only hope the BoC concoction that the GFS has been sniffing for almost week has some validity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Another 'close in' TC as well. Perhaps a Mexican threat this go around? Great agreement even re:ensembles. One can only hope the BoC concoction that the GFS has been sniffing for almost week has some validity. Euro and CMC are hinting at it, but I'm not entirely sure why. The upper level flow looks mostly easterly, but they're just plowing it into the Riviera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 We are looking at the Atlantic for some rain relief, but I think this might be the best chance in the short term. Now pray for the Rockies/Plains trough to be deep enough to knock out the Nern Mexico ridge (I'm a bit skeptical, attm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Keeping an eye S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec for TC genesis later this week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 Weird-- the location of the cyclone depicted in the GFS corresponds nicely to that convective flareup S of the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Lemony goodness. ABPZ20 KNHC 141734TWOEP TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 14 2011 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ASSOCATION WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES LITTLE. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN Stays safely offshore and eventually weakens, per GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 That's a big lemon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 With all the model support and now this impressive flare up, it won't be long till we have another invest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 16, 2011 Author Share Posted June 16, 2011 It doesn't look so hot on the IR imagery-- but even so, it's been upgraded to Mandarin (30%). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 16, 2011 Author Share Posted June 16, 2011 The Euro shows a small cyclone grazing or hitting the MX coast around Day 5 or 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 The Euro shows a small cyclone grazing or hitting the MX coast around Day 5 or 6. Yeah, the Euro is easily the weakest solution. My guess is that it will be stronger and move parallel to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 16, 2011 Author Share Posted June 16, 2011 Yeah, the Euro is easily the weakest solution. My guess is that it will be stronger and move parallel to the coast. Ah, cool. So it's not an autofish? (I don't know why I care, since I won't be Stateside until the 29th.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 The GFS and Canadian seem to keep it just offshore, but much stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 The GFS and Canadian seem to keep it just offshore, but much stronger. UKM too. The Euro is the outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_ep922011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201106161347 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 92, 2011, DB, O, 2011061612, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP922011 EP, 92, 2011061612, , BEST, 0, 115N, 920W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 16, 2011 Author Share Posted June 16, 2011 Woo hoo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Looks a tiny bit better when looped, but if the invest designtion didn't give lat and long I'd have a hard time finding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.