Srain Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011 200 PM PDT THU JUN 09 2011 DURING MOST OF THE DAY...ADRIAN HAS MAINTAINED A VERY DISTINCT EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WRAPPED BY A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. RECENTLY...THE CONVECTIVE BAND HAS WEAKENED...AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO RESEMBLE AN ANNULAR HURRICANE WITH A LARGE EYE AND A CDO. THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...BUT SINCE ADRIAN IS BECOMING ANNULAR...IT WILL PROBABLY FLUCTUATE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AND WILL NOT WEAKEN UNTIL THE CIRCULATION BECOMES WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. ADRIAN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS...TRAPPED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPANDING FARTHER WESTWARD BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF THE HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. ADRIAN COULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE RELIABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EARLIER RUNS AND CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 14.4N 104.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 14.7N 106.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 15.0N 107.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 15.5N 109.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 15.8N 110.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 16.5N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 18.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 NHC says annular.. cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 NHC says annular.. cool. Seriously! It got to the point where you couldn't use the A-word around here without being ridiculed. It's almost funny to see a qualified professional using it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Seriously! It got to the point where you couldn't use the A-word around here without being ridiculed. It's almost funny to see a qualified professional using it. It's the same way on S2K.. it's hilarious seeing someone say ANNULAR!!11! on every single hurricane. People tried to argue that Igor was annular. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 000WTPZ61 KNHC 092235TCUEP1HURRICANE ADRIAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATENWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011330 PM PDT THU JUN 09 2011 ...HURRICANE ADRIAN REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE HURRICANEADRIAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...AND SATELLITE INTENSITYESTIMATES NOW SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 115 KT OR 130 MPH...210 KM/H. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THESAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE....SUMMARY OF 330 PM PDT...2230 UTC...INFORMATION...LOCATION...14.5N 105.2WABOUT 320 MI...520 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICOMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES$FORECASTER STEWART/ROBERTS Up to 130mph now. Yea I thought Alvia's forecast was a little bit on the low side... this thing is trying to pull a Celia currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Yup, special advisory to cat 4 strength... 130 mph 950 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Solid red ring around 80 percent of the eye. I'd say it is now 125 knots and has a fair chance at going the rest of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Yup, special advisory to cat 4 strength... 130 mph 950 mb. first 130 mph cat 4 in history...impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 This is the kind of red ring around this eye that you find on a cat5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Adrian will be upgraded to 120 kts (140 mph) at 11 pm. EP, 01, 2011061000, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1054W, 120, 946, HU, 34, NEQ, 80, 80, 70, 80, 1008, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D, This is probably the strongest annular cane since Isabel back in 2003. Can we say it's annular? edit: someone on S2K just said this: "Let's clear this up: this storm isn't annular, only annular-like. SHIPS annularity index at 00Z shows the storm passed 6 out of 7 requirements to be considered annular." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 http://www.ssd.noaa..../flash-vis.html This thing is making a run at cat 5... wow. Eye is completely cleared out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Avila and Stewart suggest otherwise. I tend to believe what the NHC Senior forecasters have to say. ADRIAN HAS INTENSIFIED 85 KT OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS...AND IS LIKELY NEAR PEAK INTENSITY SINCE SUCH LONG DURATION RAPID INTENSIFICATION EVENTS ARE QUITE RARE. HAVING SAID THAT...MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ADRIAN HAS STABILIZED AS AN ANNULAR HURRICANE WITH A 20-25 NMI DIAMETER EYE. WITH NO CURRENT INDICATIONS THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS ABOUT TO BEGIN... SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE HURRICANE REMAINS OVER SSTS OF AT LEAST 28C AND IN LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS OF 5 KT OR LESS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Seriously! It got to the point where you couldn't use the A-word around here without being ridiculed. It's almost funny to see a qualified professional using it. I got taken to the woodshed last year for mentioning that Igor had some ****lar characteristics. I'll never use the word again. I'm still scarred and traumatized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Looks like an EWRC is starting, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Looks like an EWRC is starting, Seriously how could it be 1# ANNULAR and go through a ewrc 2# In start a ewrc at the time of the forecast being typed by the top hurricane experts on earth as they say there is NO sign of one or one even close to starting one... I agree it does appear to have peaked in intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Seriously how could it be 1# ANNULAR and go through a ewrc 2# In start a ewrc at the time of the forecast being typed by the top hurricane experts on earth as they say there is NO sign of one or one even close to starting one... I agree it does appear to have peaked in intensity. http://www.ssd.noaa..../flash-vis.html Last 3 frames. I may have spoken early, but it does seem like it. Also, the discussion was put out before the eye started to fluctuate in structure. Though, I was probably wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Oh that's downright sexy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 Still looking great. Maybe not as much reds as previously, but still a solid structure, with no hints of shear or dry-air intrusion. My guess is the 2 am PDT advisory keeps it at 120 kt: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 Omg, I feel so smart, because the 2 am PDT Discussion echoes the thoughts I shared above-- cloud tops have warmed a tad, but it's still solid and still 120 kt. A great first cyclone for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 lol i was so off about the EWRC.. oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 lol i was so off about the EWRC.. oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 steady state annulars are weirdoes...although at least this one has a bit of a tail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 steady state annulars are weirdoes...although at least this one has a bit of a tail They're very weird. I was saying to Adam today that I have trouble imagining what one would be like on the ground. Like, in a typical 'cane, you really notice the banding on the ground-- it starts with brief squalls separated by periods of light rain and relative calm, and as you get closer to the center, the squalls become rougher and closer together, and then you get raked by the core. So, would none of that happen in an annular? Do you just jump right into the action with no build-up? I wonder. I also wonder what it would look like on radar. I’m not aware of any landfalling annulars. I gotta get me some annular action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 They're very weird. I was saying to Adam today that I have trouble imagining what one would be like on the ground. Like, in a typical 'cane, you really notice the banding on the ground-- it starts with brief squalls separated by periods of light rain and relative calm, and as you get closer to the center, the squalls become rougher and closer together, and then you get raked by the core. So, would none of that happen in an annual? Do you just jump right into the action with no build up? I wonder. I also wonder what it would look like on radar. I’m not aware of any landfalling annulars. I bet if we scoured the web and academic journals we'd find some radar from recon flights into storms such as Isabel and Luis. I gotta get me some annular action. I doubt it ever happens for you unless you buy a boat. I'm not sure we'll ever see a real landfalling annular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Good morning Adrian. Finally NRL has updated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Finally NRL has updated... I feel like writing them a stern letter telling them that they need to step their game up, but something tells me they wouldn't care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 pretty sweet microwave...maybe a little bit of breaking down of the single band structure on the NE side with the presence of that second convective maxima? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 I feel like writing them a stern letter telling them that they need to step their game up, but something tells me they wouldn't care. I know they'e had major server issues and it was reported to have been corrected. I beginning to wonder, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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