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April 1st-2nd Nor'Easter Potential


Snow_Miser

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Hmm.. 3-5 inches in Rockland??..... Maybe extreme northern rockland from bear mountain through Harriman state park.. Down by me.. No way it's gonna happen... I think rockland needs to be split into 2 zones.... Seriously... I know it's the smallest county in new York state.. But still.... Good time to apply the "southern rockland snow hole formula" (SRSHF)... 4 inches X .25 = 1 inch... I guarantee that's all I will be getting by me.

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Looks like the 6z GFS shifted east and is colder than previous runs. I wouldn't be shocked to see a period of snow for coastal regions. The Nam also shows this.

I wouldn't count on seeing anything more than few wet flakes. As it is turning colder at 850mb, we also getting dry slotted over NYC and LI tomorrow morning, with 700mb low passing overhead or just to our west:

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I wouldn't count on seeing anything more than few wet flakes. As it is turning colder at 850mb, we also getting dry slotted over NYC and LI tomorrow morning, with 700mb low passing overhead or just to our west:

The Euro shows a good amount of precip as temps crash. A slight shift east by the models and this could be an accumulating snow for the area.

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The Euro shows a good amount of precip as temps crash. A slight shift east by the models and this could be an accumulating snow for the area.

The further east this storm tracks, the longer it will probably take for the CCB to develop over our area. We are far better off have this storm stay closer to the coast and all the mid-upper level lows closing and stacking up.

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The Euro shows a good amount of precip as temps crash. A slight shift east by the models and this could be an accumulating snow for the area.

yeah the key on the euro is that it is furthest east and we dont get the dry slot. Instead we get the comma-head precip riding over us, which unfortunately doesn't appear to have the better lift/dynamics this go around. so even if snowflakes are flying with the euro solution I'm not sure how much would accumulate, unless they are underestimating it. Because the gfs/nam are further west, the dry slot does catch us and that comma head rides over eastern pa/western NJ and then up through eastern NY state before swinging through to the east and clipping northern NJ as the surface low makes a jog more eastward.

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I wouldn't count on seeing anything more than few wet flakes. As it is turning colder at 850mb, we also getting dry slotted over NYC and LI tomorrow morning, with 700mb low passing overhead or just to our west:

A further east track would avoid the dryslot and we would also be on the cold side of storm. We wont get prolific qpf amounts like that, but I would rather get the CCB and wraparound snows then the 1.50" of qpf as mostly rain.

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Just want everyone to keep in mind how warm it is now, 37ish, and how it is snowing outside. I was shocked to see it this morning, but it just makes me think we will get snow tomorrow. Craig Allen calling for rain to snow for city and coast and a slushy coating...

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The further east this storm tracks, the longer it will probably take for the CCB to develop over our area. We are far better off have this storm stay closer to the coast and all the mid-upper level lows closing and stacking up.

We are going to get all rain if this storm stays really close to the coast. I rather have it bomb offshore.

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It's less about east versus west and more about north versus south. and by north versus south, I mean the latitude at where the cyclogenesis occurs and the cold conveyor belt precipitation can rapidly develop. that's going to start the dynamic cooling process and would give us our snow. but it's happening too late. this storm could track further east but it wouldn't give the city snow with this type of thermal profile.

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It's less about east versus west and more about north versus south. and by north versus south, I mean the latitude at where the cyclogenesis occurs and the cold conveyor belt precipitation can rapidly develop. that's going to start the dynamic cooling process and would give us our snow. but it's happening too late. this storm could track further east but it wouldn't give the city snow with this type of thermal profile.

Lets hope this storms bombs out quicker than expected like the Christmas 2002 storm or a reversal of the Jan 2008 storm :)

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It's less about east versus west and more about north versus south. and by north versus south, I mean the latitude at where the cyclogenesis occurs and the cold conveyor belt precipitation can rapidly develop. that's going to start the dynamic cooling process and would give us our snow. but it's happening too late. this storm could track further east but it wouldn't give the city snow with this type of thermal profile.

Agreed. But it would be better for City's sake for storm to track east, like Euro, and at the same time bomb out sooner at a more southerly longitude and a more east lattitude.

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At best it looks right some spots could see a coating to an inch or even very local two inches if this storm bombs coast further out and no dry slotted comes in but it looks like right we may end as just very brief period wet snow that won't accumulate Friday evening or early night before tapering off.

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850 mb temps are around -2C now, with about a 6 to 10C spread between temps and dew points from 925 mb to 1000 mb, allowing room for evaporational cooling. That's why snow is mixing in in heavier bursts of precip. now.

Different setup tonight. With the warm advection 850 temps warm to around +1C over NYC and +2C over western LI by the time the significant precip arrives.

72501 OKX Upton Observations at 12Z 31 Mar 2011

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT THTA THTE THTV

hPa m C C % g/kg deg knot K K K

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

1009.0 20 4.0 -1.0 70 3.54 100 3 276.4 286.3 277.0

1000.0 95 3.6 -2.4 65 3.22 75 10 276.8 285.8 277.3

974.4 305 2.4 -5.4 56 2.63 75 19 277.6 285.1 278.0

958.0 442 1.6 -7.4 51 2.30 86 18 278.1 284.8 278.5

938.2 610 1.0 -8.6 49 2.14 100 16 279.2 285.4 279.6

925.0 724 0.6 -9.4 47 2.04 90 14 279.9 285.9 280.3

924.0 733 0.8 -10.2 44 1.91 91 14 280.2 285.9 280.5

920.0 768 0.8 -7.2 55 2.43 93 14 280.6 287.6 281.0

903.3 914 -0.7 -6.7 64 2.58 105 16 280.5 288.0 280.9

892.0 1015 -1.7 -6.3 71 2.69 103 17 280.5 288.2 280.9

870.0 1213 -2.7 -4.4 88 3.19 100 20 281.4 290.6 282.0

869.4 1219 -2.7 -4.4 88 3.19 100 20 281.5 290.6 282.0

861.0 1296 -2.9 -4.4 89 3.22 113 18 282.1 291.3 282.6

850.0 1398 -1.7 -2.2 96 3.85 130 15 284.4 295.4 285.0

Just want everyone to keep in mind how warm it is now, 37ish, and how it is snowing outside. I was shocked to see it this morning, but it just makes me think we will get snow tomorrow. Craig Allen calling for rain to snow for city and coast and a slushy coating...

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It's less about east versus west and more about north versus south. and by north versus south, I mean the latitude at where the cyclogenesis occurs and the cold conveyor belt precipitation can rapidly develop. that's going to start the dynamic cooling process and would give us our snow. but it's happening too late. this storm could track further east but it wouldn't give the city snow with this type of thermal profile.

That's the point I'm trying to make here A storm track further east doesn't really help us out, unless you are just looking for few mangeld flakes in the air. We don't have enough cold air for accumulating snow. What we really want is the low to occlude faster. It will hard for to do it, without the slp coming further west.

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srefs are colder and east and near the benchmark

Too late though.

Here is when it gets cold enough. Hour 27:

sref_namer_027_850_temp.gif

And this falls after that. Not much. Maybe up to .25". That aint going to cut it. We need much heavier precip, after hour 27.

sref_namer_051_precip_p24.gif

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