Diego Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 There was a Yankee who said "It ain't over 'till its over". Oh yeah Yogi Berra. Agreed, but this one's beyond our control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 the weeniesm in this thread is out of control. I wanted to see what all the excitement was about with this new area of snow and I just checked the radar and it's like 10 miles wide lol. I'm not even sure if that can make it over the hills, but even if it does... it's probably like an extra 10 flakes of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 24, 2011 Author Share Posted March 24, 2011 Total precip here in New Brunswick from this storm was 0.78''. Definitely a decent amount, but as has already been stated, the warm temperatures at the surface and aloft, as well as a lack of a real organized precip shield, caused a lot of the QPF to be wasted, and thus our hopes for a widespread moderate snowstorm were dashed. ,78" is not bad. My closest weather station in Scarsdale has registered .13" QPF for the entire event. That's just pathetic. It's rare we're cold enough for accumulating snow on March 23rd, what a waste of a cold airmass. Let's hope the next storm is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Agreed, but this one's beyond our control. Gotta agree with you there, Diego. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Central Park has reported 0.75 of precip. Precip wasn't a big problem here folks. Marginal temps at the surface and the warm layer aloft were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 One of the upton discussions eluded to this yesterday and they were right on... There was absolutely no upper level forcing mechanism in our area with this system.. In fact, if you watch the progression of the 500 mb pattern, there was upper level ridging taking place which is the total opposite type of forcing you want. even at the 250mb level, the flow was confluent.. No upper divergence to produce any large scale ascent forcing.. The only real player was a localized band of precipitation via a boundary that set up over parts of NJ... The real centerpiece both dynamically and thermodynamically was the severe weather piece of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Well I mean, we didn't even have a -NAO in place for this event, there's no western ridge, in fact the upper pattern is pretty poor overall, on top of the fact that it's late march. So my expectations were extremely low with this storm even when some models showed us getting hammered. Gradient / overunning systems usually disappoint most in mid winter nevermind early spring. I have more faith that the pattern will produce for us mid next week. I hope so, because most of the LR outlooks I've seen have us raining and mid 40s to upper 40s on Wednesday with no snow to be found anywhere on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 You can't blame people for disappointment when a widespread model consensus showed .75" QPF and we ended up with like 1/3 of that at most. Where is all the precip? It's one thing to discuss the weather and be disappointed. Heck, I am. But there was some pretty bad weenie-ism in here. NAM and euro actually had the right idea for this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 I'm happy. I got my nearly 2" of snow on the grass last night and great accumulations on the trees, and decent accumulations on some paved surfaces. I also got thundersleet and thundersnow today. And it wasn't just one rumble--it was several vivid flashes of lightning. I love weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 24, 2011 Author Share Posted March 24, 2011 Central Park has reported 0.75 of precip. Precip wasn't a big problem here folks. Marginal temps at the surface and the warm layer aloft were. It was further north, dude. We have been plenty cold and had no precipitation to take advantage of the airmass. This event was a huge let-down for those in the northern suburbs that knew they'd have the BL/850 temps to support snow but couldn't get any banding. All of the models were way too aggressive with moving the QPF north in the face of overwhelming confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 If a CCB forms with the next event, snow will have no problem sticking everywhere There isn't enough hot dogs in Yankee Stadium for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Central Park has reported 0.75 of precip. Precip wasn't a big problem here folks. Marginal temps at the surface and the warm layer aloft were. I agree; this system was loaded with moisture, but the intensity wasn't consistent enough to overcome the borderline surface conditions-- causing it to either melt on the way down or once it hit the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 I agree; this system was loaded with moisture, but the intensity wasn't consistent enough to overcome the borderline surface conditions-- causing it to either melt on the way down or once it hit the ground. yep. The thundersleet was pretty cool though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 There isn't enough hot dogs in Yankee Stadium for you. Based on the LR outlooks I've seen, the event next week will be rain for the east coast if it even makes it here. Looks like the cold air leaves after Monday? Well, Arctic air anyway... it will still be cold, just not cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 There isn't enough hot dogs in Yankee Stadium for you. He's a lock for weenie of the year for the next 2 or 3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 I agree; this system was loaded with moisture, but the intensity wasn't consistent enough to overcome the borderline surface conditions-- causing it to either melt on the way down or once it hit the ground. yes it was, this is the same system that hit the midwest with 15-20" of snow in Wisconsin.... so, moisture wasn't the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 It was further north, dude. We have been plenty cold and had no precipitation to take advantage of the airmass. This event was a huge let-down for those in the northern suburbs that knew they'd have the BL/850 temps to support snow but couldn't get any banding. All of the models were way too aggressive with moving the QPF north in the face of overwhelming confluence. Euro, UKIE and Ggem all nailed this at 12z today. They all had very little tonight and they were 100% correct. American models failed until the 18z NAM which also took away tonights event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 yep. The thundersleet was pretty cool though. Yeah, it woke me up lol. I was up all of last night watching it snow pretty hard from 2:30 to 5:30 this morning so I slept in during the day and woke up to thunder, lightning and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 24, 2011 Author Share Posted March 24, 2011 It's one thing to discuss the weather and be disappointed. Heck, I am. But there was some pretty bad weenie-ism in here. NAM and euro actually had the right idea for this evening. 6z NAM had a huge hit for this evening and even the 12z NAM showed way more QPF than we actually got. It seems the models both overestimated the strength of the WAA to lift the banding north into the colder air in SE NY and SW CT, and then some of them made another mistake by showing deformation snows on the NW side of the coastal which have never really gotten going. This was just a non-storm up here, making up for the surprise on 2/21. I can't really complain as the 2" this week boosts my total to 68" seasonal, tying 09-10, something I thought impossible when we started with a strong La Niña. Also thought it was impossible when the pattern looked putrid and zonal in mid-March, and now we've seen two accumulating snowfalls this week and may have another one on our doorstep for the weekend with the possibility of a fierce Nor'easter Tuesday. You win some, you lose some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Yeah, it woke me up lol. I was up all of last night watching it snow pretty hard from 2:30 to 5:30 this morning so I slept in during the day and woke up to thunder, lightning and sleet. I step out of my apt to go running and am like, wtf is this? But then I was like what the hell, better sleet than pouring rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 6z NAM had a huge hit for this evening and even the 12z NAM showed way more QPF than we actually got. It seems the models both overestimated the strength of the WAA to lift the banding north into the colder air in SE NY and SW CT, and then some of them made another mistake by showing deformation snows on the NW side of the coastal which have never really gotten going. This was just a non-storm up here, making up for the surprise on 2/21. I can't really complain as the 2" this week boosts my total to 68" seasonal, tying 09-10, something I thought impossible when we started with a strong La Niña. Also thought it was impossible when the pattern looked putrid and zonal in mid-March, and now we've seen two accumulating snowfalls this week and may have another one on our doorstep for the weekend with the possibility of a fierce Nor'easter Tuesday. You win some, you lose some. LOL I hope these materialize..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 ,78" is not bad. My closest weather station in Scarsdale has registered .13" QPF for the entire event. That's just pathetic. It's rare we're cold enough for accumulating snow on March 23rd, what a waste of a cold airmass. Let's hope the next storm is better. Yeah, QPF definitely wasn't the issue here, it was too warm surface and mid-level temps as well as light precip intensity that caused a lot of our QPF to be wasted as rain/sleet/non-accumulating snow. For you temps weren't the issue, your issue was simply lack of QPF. So it was basically a lose-lose situation for everyone except for that narrow band in northern NJ that got nailed by the WAA snows last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 6z NAM had a huge hit for this evening and even the 12z NAM showed way more QPF than we actually got. It seems the models both overestimated the strength of the WAA to lift the banding north into the colder air in SE NY and SW CT, and then some of them made another mistake by showing deformation snows on the NW side of the coastal which have never really gotten going. This was just a non-storm up here, making up for the surprise on 2/21. I can't really complain as the 2" this week boosts my total to 68" seasonal, tying 09-10, something I thought impossible when we started with a strong La Niña. Also thought it was impossible when the pattern looked putrid and zonal in mid-March, and now we've seen two accumulating snowfalls this week and may have another one on our doorstep for the weekend with the possibility of a fierce Nor'easter Tuesday. You win some, you lose some. Come on dude, this is kinda what we're talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 There isn't enough hot dogs in Yankee Stadium for you. harsh words lmao, oh well actually made me bust out laughing. I still have faith that a system will produce for us next week, but that's another story for another day. This one was definitly fun tracking. Now Pazzo can go back to telling us it's 50 degrees in midtown when the city is reporting mid 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Come on dude, this is kinda what we're talking about. It looks like the same dumb pattern we were in earlier, when it was too dry when it was cold enough to snow and as soon as a storm comes in it gets a bit milder-- it's just more annoying now because 40s and rain is not my idea of fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 <br />Yeah, QPF definitely wasn't the issue here, it was too warm surface and mid-level temps that caused a lot of our QPF to be wasted as rain/sleet/non-accumulating snow. For you temps weren't the issue, your issue was simply lack of QPF. So it was basically a lose-lose situation for everyone except for that narrow band in northern NJ that got nailed by the WAA snows last night.<br /><br /><br /><br />The other problem was the general lacking of heavy precip rates, with the exception of what happened over parts of NJ.. It was just a prolonged period of light to occasionally moderate QPF.. And with borderline temps, not having good precip rates will not get you any accumulations, especially during daylight hours in late March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 The power of timing, Tom can do wonders. Like February 1983 blizzard and January 26-27th snowstorm. Anyone whining about a couple of inches of snow/sleet in late March needs to have their weenie license revoked. Tonight, I drove from Metuchen to RU's Busch Campus in Piscataway for a grad school/industry panel discussion (eng'g) between 7:45 pm and 8:05 pm and I drove through an amazing band of serious thundersleet the whole way. The sleet was pouring down and I could hear the rumble of thunder and see the flashes of lightning overhead - amazing. Roads got icy quickly. Our discussion was over by about 9:45 pm and when I came out there was about 1/2" of sleet/snow on the ground (looks like it must've snowed some) and the drive home was pretty slick. Temps were 32F the whole drive back and it was a mixture of light freezing rain and snow falling - could be a little icy tomorrow am (before sunrise, mostly) if temps drop another degree or two and we get some more freezing rain. All in all, 2.5" of snow this morning and 1/2" of sleet/snow this evening is a pretty damn good "spring" day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 back to big wet snowflakes again here in Morganville, NJ Monmouth county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 24, 2011 Author Share Posted March 24, 2011 SN 31.9/31 Just looked outside and it is coming down nicely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Come on dude, this is kinda what we're talking about. setting themselves up again for heartbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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